University of Missouri: March 2009 Archives

Will we have four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four for the second straight year? The way this tourney has gone, I wouldn't doubt it. But let's see.

West Regional
No. 3 Missouri vs. No. 1 Connecticut
The Tigers opened some eyes Thursday, running and gunning past Memphis while putting up over 100 points in the process. After that performance, which saw Mizzou up by as many as 24 points in the second half, confidence should be high.
But Missouri has never played in a Final Four. And UConn might be playing the most consistent basketball in the tournament to date. Expect Missouri to try to get the Huskies out of their game through the full-court press, but the Tigers will be hard-pressed to contain 7-foot-3 UConn center Hasheem Thabeet. Their best bet would be to get Thabeet in foul trouble and even the odds. Otherwise, the Huskies should win this convincingly.
Pick: Connecticut

East Regional
No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh
Pitt may be the No. 1 seed, but the Wildcats seem to be gathering most of the buzz going into this game. That makes a lot of sense, as Villanova has just wasted Duke and UCLA while the Panthers seem to be ekeing out victories over everyone they play. If you go by how each team is playing, Villanova should be OK.
A couple things could factor in Pittsburgh's favor though. If DeJuan Blair can stay out of foul trouble, he provides a space-eating low-post scoring threat that Villanova has no real counter for. And perhaps like Louisville (which struggled at times in its first two games before destroying Arizona Friday), perhaps the Panthers have a big game in them. They've gotten big individual games from Blair (E. Tenn State), Sam Young (Okla. State) and Levance Fields (Xavier). They need a combo to win this game.
Pick: Villanova

After a relatively successful first round of predictions, I'm going to make a stab at it again. It will be a little more conventional this time around, as I'll be going with straight-up predictions from here on out.

No. 5 Purdue at No. 1 Connecticut
You never know how motivated the Huskies will be from game to game, but if the first two games are any indication, UConn is taking the tournament seriously. Sportsmanship was a bit of an issue in the Chattanooga game, but the Huskies were impressive in trouncing Texas A&M.
Purdue, on the other hand, has won its two games in a variety of ways, subduing Northern Iowa in a half-court, possession game while outlasting Washington in a back-and-forth, fast-paced 76-74 donnybrook. Purdue will give the Huskies a game, but UConn is on a roll now.
Pick: Connecticut.

No. 3 Missouri at No. 2 Memphis
This game should be a fun one. Missouri's full-court press, "40 Minutes of Hell" offense can erupt at any time and the Tigers have a bevy of scoring threats led by forward DeMarre Carroll. Memphis, meanwhile, might have the most athletic team in college basketball.
The key to this game will be Memphis' outside shooting. The Tigers have been torrid from 3-point range in their first two games, with Roburt Sallie going for 10 3-pointers against Cal State Northridge and Doneal Mack leading the rout of Maryland. If that continues, then bye, bye Missouri.
Pick: Memphis

Now to the West Region, which will have its regional finals held in Glendale, Arizona. It will also have some new faces near the top of the regional as well.

Overall theme:
This region will be about putting up or shutting up. The slotting of Connecticut as a top seed was pretty controversial, as the Huskies were the third Big East team to get a No. 1 seed. UConn lost in the first round of the Big East Tournament (albeit in six overtimes) and hasn't won a postseason game - conference tournament or NCAA tournament - since beating Washington in the Sweet 16 three years ago. The Huskies have something to prove.

No. 2 Memphis, who feels that it should have been the top seed, also has a chip on its shoulder. Not only do the Tigers have to deal with the stigma of being from the weak Conference USA, but they also have to deal with their collapse at the free-throw line late in last year's title game that cost them a ring. So if Memphis and UConn make it to the regional final, look out.

Watch out for: Purdue
The No. 5 Boilermakers have been up and down this season, as they were just as capable of losing to Northwestern at home as they were of whipping Big Ten champion Michigan State by 18 points - both things they "accomplished" this year. The volatility that Purdue showed was explained pretty simply - they just haven't been able to stay healthy. Until now.

The Boilermakers were finally at full strength during the Big Ten tournament, with star sophomore Robbie Hummel and defensive sparkplug Chris Kramer finally 100 percent. Not coincidentally, Purdue won the tournament. They have a manageable No. 12 seed in Northern Iowa and can match up physically with No. 4 Washington. They also have the discipline and shooting capability to mess with No. 1 UConn as well.

Stay away from: California
This category could go to a host of teams, No. 13 Mississippi State (the SEC tourney champion - unlikely tourney champions tend to flame out early in the tournament) and No. 4 Washington (struggled a bit down the stretch), or No. 6 Marquette (who I'll address later) but I went with the Golden Bears.

It's tempting to pick a No. 7 seed to win a couple rounds, but Cal is not the one to pick. While the Golden Bears were surprising under first-year coach Mike Montgomery, they faltered a bit down the stretch and are matched up with a No. 10 Maryland team and star guard Greivis Vasquez. Forget about picking Cal to the second round, much less anywhere further.

High risk, high reward: Missouri
I guess its a little weird to have a third seed in this position, but this category has to do with the Tigers' Final Four chances. While UConn and Memphis are getting all of the buzz, Missouri has a chance to sneak through the cracks and make it to Detroit. The Big 12 tourney champions employ a high-intensity, full-court pressing attack reminiscent of Arkansas' "40 Minutes of Hell" under Nolan Richardson.

Missouri also has the best assist-to-turnover ratio in the nation and two talented forward in DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons. So where's the risk? The risk is in Missouri's relative inexperience, as it hasn't been to the tourney since 2003, and picking them to the Final Four in a region with two No. 1-seed worthy teams. But a brassy pick here could pay off big time.

Upset special: No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette
Marquette has the scoring ability to hang with anyone in the nation with seniors Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews along with junior Lazar Hayward. But there's one key player missing in senior point guard Dominic James, who broke his foot late in the regular season.

The Eagles, ranked in the top 10 at one point, lost five out of six since James' injury and have been generally off. They had a similar situation two years ago when McNeal went down and fell meekly in the first round to Michigan State. With a Utah State team that has 29 wins staring them in the face, the Eagles look to be in trouble.

Lead-pipe lock: UCLA won't win the region
That might seem like a "No, duh!!" statement, considering that the Bruins aren't even one of the 16 teams in the region, but the West has been UCLA's playground the last three years - as the Bruins have run through on the way to the Final Four each season. But with no UCLA on the docket, teams like Connecticut, Memphis and Missouri can play a little bit more.