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Sunday Elite 8 predictions

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Went 2-0 today, much to my dismay since the Pitt loss pretty much took me out of a high-money pool I was leading. Hopefully I'll go zero for two today if you catch my drift.

Midwest Regional Final
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Louisville
The Spartans pulled out their bag of tricks to get past defending-champion Kansas on Friday, as point guard Kalin Lucas made a tough and-1 leaner to break a 62-62 tie. If Michigan State hopes to pull the upset, Lucas will have to have a big game, as point guard is one of the few positions that the Spartans have a personnel advantage over the Cardinals.
MSU will also have to slow the Louisville press-and-run attack quite a bit. The Cardinals played their best game of the tournament - and perhaps the best game of any team in the tourney - in killing Arizona 103-64. They are deep, quick, talented and motivated. If they force MSU into turnovers - an occasional bugaboo for the Spartans - the Cards win this going away.
Pick: Louisville

South Regional Final
No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Just in case anyone was wondering if Blake Griffin was worthy of being the No. 1 pick in this summer's NBA Draft, Griffin has gone for roughly 30 points per game in his first three games. He's going to have to continue that type of production against the Tar Heels, who can score against and with anyone in the nation.
However, the key may be how the Griffins - Blake and older brother Taylor - deal with Hansbrough inside. They have the athletic advantage over the bullish Tar Heel senior and if they can frustrate him, they can keep UNC based on the perimeter. That, plus big performances from guards Willie Warren and Tony Crocker, would give the Sooners a chance. But I don't see it.
Pick: North Carolina

South Region predictions

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Lots of intrigue in this region, between title favorite North Carolina, Blake Griffin and Oklahoma, the overtime-heavy squad of Syracuse and an experienced Gonzaga squad. Fun stuff if you ask me.

No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 North Carolina
The Bulldogs might be one of the more tournament-experienced teams in the field, but they needed Jeremy Pargo to do his best impersonation of Tyus Edney to survive Western Kentucky and make this round. However, Gonzaga is tough being long, athletic Austin Daye, sharpshooter Matt Bouldin and the speedy Pargo.
North Carolina's fortunes are based on how much defense it wants to play. The Tar Heels can score any day of the week, especially with Ty Lawson looking good, but their defensive intensity wanes and leaves them vulnerable during the course of 40 minutes. I'd expect Gonzaga to exploit this and even take a lead into the final 10 minutes before succumbing to UNC's abundance of talent.
Pick: North Carolina

No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
This might be the toughest game to call in the Sweet 16. On one hand you have a Syracuse team that can score in a variety of ways - off the drive (Jonny Flynn), on the catch and shoot (Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins) and inside (Paul Harris and Arinze Onuaku). Add in a tough matchup 2-3 zone and the Orange are tough.
Oklahoma, however, has the most dominant player of the tournament in sophomore Blake Griffin. Griffin is a physical specimen and can eat up the Orange down low. However, the Sooner guards have to hit 3s to loosen up the Syracuse zone so they can drive with Willie Warren and hook up Griffin in the post. That's easier said than done though. I like Syracuse's overall balance to win out here.
Pick: Syracuse

Week 14 top 25

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Before I get into it, I'm going to say how it would be a sham if Oklahoma gets ranked ahead of Texas in the BCS. And no, its not because they are so bad on defense that Florida would be guaranteed to beat them by 20-plus points. And its not entirely because they lost to Texas at a neutral site - though that should be reason enough for anyone sane.

No, my reasons for Texas to get the nod over Oklahoma and Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game are as follows. Oh yeah, and boo to the Big 12 for making this a tiebreaker. Just awful.

1) Texas is the only one of the three not to get a home game over the other two.

2) Texas is the only one of the three to win away from home against the other two.

3) Texas had the toughest in-conference strength of schedule, having to play Big 12 North champion Missouri while the other two didn't. With that said, if Oklahoma gets the nod, Texas will have beaten both participants in the Big 12 championship game by 10-plus points - participants that have equal or worse records than Texas.

4) Texas had the closest loss and Texas' loss came in the toughest circumstances. Texas was on game four of a four-week gauntlet (Oklahoma, Missouri, Okla. State and Tech) without a bye. Tech had a bye before its loss and Oklahoma had its tough opponents divided evenly.

5) Texas had the toughest non-conference schedule according to win/loss record. Oklahoma did beat Cincinnati and TCU, but also played 0-11 Washington and 1-11 FCS Chattanooga. Tech played two FCS teams.

Yeah, the voters need to do the right thing here. We'll see if they do. Now to the rankings:

1. Alabama (1) - Still undefeated and broke a six-game losing streak to Auburn. Has its hands full with Florida.

2. Florida (2) - The Gators are straight pile-driving fools right now. Look to be the favorites to win the title.

3. Texas (3) - Beat Texas A&M by 40. Explained the rest above.

4. Oklahoma (4) - The Oklahoma State victory was a good one. But I'm sorry, I'm not ranking them above Texas.

5. USC (5) - Embarrassed Notre Dame. What else is new.

6. Utah (6) - Still undefeated and will remain that way until January. Good enough for me.

7. Penn State (8) - They move up because Texas Tech struggled again. Nits should have a good Rose Bowl matchup with USC.

8. Texas Tech (7) - Almost made the BCS picture infinitely easier by almost losing to Baylor. Get penalized because they didn't.

9. Boise State (9) - All I know is that it was 13-10 over Fresno State before I left to drive to Temecula Friday night and it ended up being 61-10.

10. Ohio State (10) - Oregon State loss likely sews up BCS bid.

11. Ball State (13) - Big win over Western Michigan moves undefeated Cardinals up.

12. TCU (15) - Move up 3 despite regular season being over. Must be nice.

13. Cincinnati (16) - The Bearcats locked up the Big East title and a BCS berth. And no, Bob Huggins had nothing to do with it.

14. Georgia Tech (19) - The Yellow Jackets put on a triple-option clinic against Georgia, getting a bump in the rankings in the process.

15. Boston College (20) - Eagles' fourth win in a row sends them to ACC title game against Virginia Tech for the second straight year.

16. Oregon (21) - Ducks throw up 65 on Oregon State, ruining the Beavers' BCS hopes while making USC and Ohio State very happy.

17. BYU (18) - Teams losing ahead of them give the Cougars a tiny bump up.

18. Oklahoma State (12) - 41 points should have been enough to beat Oklahoma. But it was 20 short.

19. Georgia (11) - The Bulldogs' house of cards were crumbled by Georgia Tech. The preseason No. 1 leaves the regular season without a win over a ranked team.

20. Pittsburgh (23) - The Panthers take down West Virginia to win the Backyard Brawl for the second year in a row, driving the Mountaineers crazy again.

21. Missouri (14) - Loss to Kansas leaves Missouri in same boat as Georgia, great against inferior teams and inferior to great teams. Could really screw things up with a Big 12 upset next week.

22. Michigan State (24) - Spartans move up with losses by others and a newly-minted win over a top 25 team in Iowa.

23. Mississippi (25) - The Rebels killed Mississippi State to continue their late-season surge.

24. Oregon State (16) - Losing 65-38 in a must-win game is a tough end to what was a great season for the Beavers.

25. Iowa (NR) - The Hawkeyes sneak into the rankings. And hey, they can say they were the only ones to beat Penn State.

Under consideration: Northwestern, Florida State, Tulsa

Dropped out: No. 22 Florida State (lost to Florida).

About T.J.

T.J. Berka has been covering sports for The Sun since 2006. As a graduate of the University of Michigan, T.J. know good sports when he sees them - at least he thinks he does.

Email T.J. here

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