Five Prep Football Teams Most Likely to Advance, Fall
We're into the quarterfinals of the CIF-SS prep football playoffs, and there aren't any bogus teams still hanging around. This is competence from top to bottom ...
But somebody has to go to get the CIF down to the semifinals in its 13 brackets.
After looking at the 12 (11-man) area teams still alive, in four divisions, here is our sense of the five most likely to make the semis ... and the five most likely to be excused after a nice season.
Most Likely to Move On
1. Serrano. Ray Maholchic's team probably had a tougher opponent in the first round, Bloomington, than it does in the second, Palm Desert. The top-seeded Diamondbacks should go to 12-0 and face the survivor of the Palm Springs at Riverside Poly game.
2. Aquinas. The Falcons went off on Viewpoint last week, and we have to think they can outscore Bishop, despite the monster drive up the Owens Valley. Bishop won a 7-6 squeaker over Desert Hot Springs. Aquinas, led by Dwaine "Peanut" Radden should be fine if the bus gets there without incident.
3. Colton. I like the Yellowjackets a lot, but we need to remember they have never gotten past this round in Harold Strauss' tenure. Rancho Verde figures to provide a tough test (three Inland Valley League teams are in the second round), but we see Colton taking advantage of home field and advancing.
4. A.B. Miller. The Rebels have to travel to Chaparral, but they should be able to win a close game. Chaparral barely got by Los Osos, 10-7, last week, while Miller was trashing Damien. Miller QB Springer, a sort of prep version of Oregon's Dennis Dixon, will be the difference.
5. Arroyo Valley. Yes, the Hawks, over top-seeded Colony. AVHS is another team that hasn't been to the semis before, which is a little scary, but this is a team with scads of size and skill, starting with QB Robert Fuller. Defending champ Colony has done a great job to get here, but the home team has too much speed.
Most Likely to Pack the Gear
1. Kaiser. Dick Bruich wrung blood from a turnip with this squad, rallying from an 0-5 start to force a three-way tie at 4-1 for the Sunkist League title, and adding a 14-6 victory over Rim in the first round. But now the Cats get defending Eastern champ Riverside North, and the Huskies' speed will be too much.
2. Big Bear. The Bears are home, but they are home vs. top-seeded Citrus Hill, which beat them earlier this year, and they might be without quarterback Kris Proctor, which makes winning an unlikely prospect.
3. Hesperia. The Scorpions have had one of their best football season in school history, but King comes from the Ivy League, which looks like the best in the Eastern Division, and Serrano is out of the Mohave River, which is one of the weaker.
4. Cajon. The Cowboys pulled a first-round upset at Pasadena Muir, and we can never count out a team with Walter Kazee at tailback ... but Moreno Valley won the toughest league in the Central Division (the Inland Valley) and probably will be too much for the Cowboys, even at home.
5. Redlands East Valley. The Wildcats are unbeaten but have shown signs of vulnerability in two of their last three -- the 28-27 home victory over Miller and the 60-53 track meet victory over Murrieta Valley. It isn't clear they can stop the run, and that is what defending Inland champ Norco is going to bring, in spades. REV has never been past the quarters, either.
The others: Twentynine Palms looms as an underdog on the road against Riverside Notre Dame of the rugged Mountain Pass League; Ontario Christian looks like a road underdog vs. second-seeded San Jacinto.