My New Thinking: Never Trade The Kids
At some point in my career I probably was one of those guys who clamored for almost any trade that brought a proven veteran to your team -- in whatever sport, but baseball, especially -- in return for "prospects."
I mean, prospects were just that. Guys who MIGHT turn out. But had a good chance of not turning out, either.
I thought only loser teams with timid management and no money kept the kids. "Hey, there's Joe Vet ... go get him, and I don't care how many Double-A all-stars it takes! What? You cheap cowards!"
Now, I've come 180 on this. I don't think much of any veteran is worth two, three, even four of your best young players, and this comes with the Angels and Dodgers both ogling Miguel Cabrera -- for whom the Florida Marlins will want three or four top young players.
My reasoning:
1. The "proven veteran" probably already has had his best seasons. Or maybe just had THE best season of his career. So you're trading for somebody who isn't as good as he seems. Paying retail when you should be thinking wholesale. (This is even more true for football, where guys' time at the pinnacle can be measured in weeks.)
2. Baseball economics -- for anybody who isn't the Yankees -- demand that you stock your club with guys you can control for minimal amounts of money for the most years. That is, especially, the guys who have come up through your system. Russell Martin was the Dodgers' best player last year and probably will be next year, too, and he's not even arbitration-eligible yet. The Dodgers' Best Player costs them something like $380,000.
And consider this: Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Kemp and Martin all made less than $400,000 last year. Where would that team have been without those guys? Who collectively equal about one month of Jeff Kent's salary? And the Marlins will want at least one or two of those guys, PLUS one or two more who are coming up behind them. To get a guy who's going to get something like $12 million in arbitration.
3. Organizational stability. You're always better off playing with guys who came through your system, maybe played together, who were taught the fundamentals the same way. You bring in random outsiders, you mess that up. Then you have the Dodgers of 1998-2006.
4. If you want to get better, if you've got millions burning a hole in your pocket, sign a free agent. Don't give up in trade guys who are 1-2 years from being an every day player. Just don't do it.
Like I said, I used to think teams that didn't pursue the Big Name were fraidy cats. Now, I think you've got to be brave not to make the dopey fan-style move.
Nurture the young guys. Keep the payroll under control. Spend big on selected free agents. That's the way to win, and not have to pay New York Yankees prices.