Turning Point addendum: Brief analysis

Mynisha Crenshaw, 11, was murdered in Nov. 2005. This reporter joined The Sun in Jan. 2006 the reaction to the crime was still a frequent topic of news coverage. Much of 2006 was a grim year, as youths continued to fall in San Bernardino.

Sunday's retrospective piece, "Turning Point," provides some time to reflect on the news of the past three years. Here are some thoughts:

1. In the face of the recession, crime remains San Bernardino's most serious issue. Although Police Department statistics show that crime has dropped through 2008, but the numbers tell the story of a very bad situation improving to the status of being not quite as bad.

For example, SBPD reports that through November 2007, there were 44 criminal homicides in the city. Through November of this year, police report 32 criminal homicides occurred. That's still a lot, and city officials' may not face a more important decision in 2009 than who will serve as San Bernardino's next police chief. Current chief Michael Billdt has said he will retire in March.

2. Although official numbers show that crime is down this year, it's possible that Mayor Pat Morris may have made a political miscalculation earlier this year when he announced that crime was is at its lowest in San Bernardino since 1985.

Aside from setting off a debate between himself and Councilwoman Wendy McCammack over statistical methodology, it's somewhat doubtful that even though police report a decrease in crime, the average San Bernardino resident feels significantly safer now than during 2006 or 2005. Even if the mayor's calculations were dead on, Morris was at his political best in 2006 when he constantly made his case that the city needed to do more about crime and that San Bernardino needed more resources.

That style of leadership was crucial in convincing voters to pass the Measure Z sales tax hike. Residents aren't likely to say "yes" to any new taxes while the national economy is suffering as it is now, but the point isn't whether people are willing to pay even more for crime fighting.

People generally seem to respond better to vibrant leaders who ask their constituents to rise to the challenges of the day (FDR, Reagan) rather than those who bemoan a crisis of confidence or make premature declarations of "mission accomplished." Morris may be able to rally more public confidence in the city's direction in the coming year if he returns to his 2006 leadership style rather than rest the laurels on short-term improvements.

3. This summer's molestation scandal does not mean that the underlying concepts behind Operation Phoenix are flawed. Community center Mike Miller's July 2008 arrest on suspicion of child molestation opened the door to serious criticism of Phoenix, but it would be premature to close the door on Morris' efforts to make crime prevention a core element of city services.

Morris responded to Miller's arrest by restructuring Phoenix's management structure and it became clear though news reports that the chain of command needed improvement. Another fact that came to light is that the city's Parks, Recreation and Community Services department - essential to the youth services that are part of Phoenix - was severely underfunded over the years when compared to other San Bernardino departments.

The city's current budget crisis and political fallout from this summer's events do not seem to be reasons enough to scuttle the program. McCammack has repeatedly made the case that Phoenix-related youth programs may not result in dividends for several years, and she's right that money is going to be scarce. But as the City Council approaches the challenges of drafting the city's next budget, a strong case could be made to establish crime prevention programs apart from essential police services as a core component of city operations.

Fire prevention is recognized as a key aspect of city government and it would be hard to imagine any excising fire inspectors from its budget. Whether or not the crime prevention strategies that are currently part of Phoenix are the best strategies for the city could be subject to debate, but while attending an anti-gang meeting earlier this year in Apple Valley, this reporter observed what seemed to be a consensus among law enforcement that authorities cannot simply arrest society's way out of the gang problem.

Indeed, the budget shortfall could even serve as an opportunity for the city's elected officials to engage in a hard-nosed discussion and determine a baseline for city resources devoted to crime prevention strategies. Anticipating a long term approach, City Hall can plan for how resources can be allocated to recreation and youth services over the long term.