A publishing house's ranking of San Bernardino as America's 46th most crime afflicted city - an improvement from the city's previous ranking - doesn't change the fact that it is still the deadliest Southern California city with more than 100,000 people, Cal State San Bernardino criminologist Stephen Tibbets observed.
If slightly smaller cities were included, San Bernardino would rank second, Tibbets said Wednesday. The deadlier city of Compton's population is just under the 100,000 mark.
Tibbets' remarks come in response to CQ Press' latest crime rankings. The list has San Bernardino at the 46 spot, an improvement from 36 in the 2008 edition.
Each list is based on the previous year's crime stats. As recently as 2004, San Bernardino was ranked as America's 16th-most dangerous city.
Mayor Pat Morris said Tuesday that the new rankings show San Bernardino has "graduated to the next level of safety."
Tibbets disagreed, pointing to the city's continued status as one of Southern California's most murderous locales. He said he was pleased to see that the number of murders has declined, but noted that since the early 1990s, crime has generally dropped in large American cities.
"I think it's great news, I actually see it as the glass is half-full, but there has to be a reality check," Tibbets said. "Really, we are just as bad as we were before he took office."
Morris on Tuesday pointed to a wide array of government efforts including police hiring, GPS anklets for gang parolees, cooperation between the SBPD and ATF, recreation programs in and out of Operation Phoenix and anti-drug and -gang education in schools.
Tibbets said the world is too complex to attribute increases or decreases in crime to single factor, noting the complex interactions of poverty, gun availability, drug use, amount of juvenile offenders, dropouts and unemployment on crime rates.
The criminologist said he owns three personal firearms but said one likely factor in reducing crime since the bloody years of the early 1990s has been efforts like trigger locks or parent accountability laws.
Another factor on the national scene, Tibbets said, could be that violent offenders of the early 1990s have gotten too old to commit the kinds of crimes they did during their youths.
CQ Press' rankings rely on numbers that law enforcement agencies report to the FBI. The FBI cautions against rankings, and Tibbetts said its inevitable that people will make comparisons but agrees with the Bureau that CQ Press' method is flawed.
The rankings incorporate data for murders, rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults, burglaries and motor vehicle theft.
Tibbets said murders and vehicle thefts are generally the only statistics that can be relied upon, because even serious crimes can go unreported by victims or misclassified by police. An example could be an aggravated assault that is classified as a misdemeanor attack in a department where brass are trying to improve the city's image.
He said he was not accusing any local departments of fudging data.
But from the perspective of comparing cities, Tibbets said enough departments across the country have been caught downgrading offenses to make any ranking that includes the six crimes counted by CQ Press an unreliable gauge of the relative dangers between cities.




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