I’m heading up to Michigan this weekend to see my alma mater, the University of Michigan, hopefully get its first win of the year. Don’t worry, I’m not going to make you read my assessment of that game. But after a 6-4 week, I’ll try to build on the good start.
Stanford (+14) at Arizona State
With USC and UCLA on byes this week, I’ll start with what has become a pretty intriguing matchup all of a sudden. Stanford got off to a great start last week, upsetting Oregon State thanks to the 147 yards rushing of Norco grad Toby Gerhart, while Arizona State, featuring Colony grad Omar Bolden at CB, is expected to challenge for the top 10. I don’t expect another upset from Stanford, but I do expect them to give the Sun Devils a fight.
Arizona State 35, Stanford 27
California (-13.5) at Washington State
Over the past few years, Cal has been one of those teams that seems to perform better on the road than at home. If you think about some of the big Cal games (the 2004 game they barely lost to USC, the 2007 thriller against Oregon), you realize that they usually happen on the road. That doesn’t bode well for a crappy Washington State team.
California 34, Washington State 14
Oregon State (+15) at Penn State
There were concerns over the Beaver D, concerns that were well-founded after watching Stanford hit up OSU for 36. Now the Beavers have to go clear across the country to face a Penn State team that put up 66 in its first game. However, that first game was against Coastal Carolina. With rain from Hurricane Hanna evening the playing field a bit, expect OSU to slop the game enough to cover.
Penn State 27, Oregon State 21
BYU (-9) at Washington
This seems like easy money. Stealing candy from a baby. Getting tickets to a Florida Marlins game. What ever analogy you choose to lose, its hard to envision Washington, fresh off being embarrassed by Oregon, being able to hang with the team that has the nation’s longest winning steak. Usually games that seem this cut-and-dried make me think, but I’m taking the advice of Crash Davis and Clay Fowler. Don’t think, just pick.
BYU 40, Washington 21
San Diego State (+22) at Notre Dame
This game really stinks from a bettor’s standpoint. On one hand you have the Fighting Irish, who were historically pathetic last year in going 3-9. On another hand you have the Aztecs, who somehow managed to lose to Cal Poly for the second straight year. My logic in this game is that Notre Dame somehow has to be better than it was last year, while San Diego State stinks something awful. But still, I can’t lay 22 points with Notre Dame until I see it play.
Notre Dame 28, San Diego State 12
West Virginia (-7.5) at East Carolina
This is a very interesting game. For the Mountaineers, ECU should provide a real defensive test toward Pat White and his new-found passing abilities (sorry, not buying Villanova as a real opponent, 5 TD passes or not). For the Pirates, this – coupled with their upset of Virginia Tech – could launch them into BCS-buster talk. Expect the Pirates to come out flying, but get worn down late.
West Virginia 34, East Carolina 17
Miami (Fla.) (+22.5) at Florida
Fun fact: Florida hasn’t beaten the Hurricanes since 1983. Another fun fact: The Canes have tortured the Gators this decade, defeating Florida in two bowls – 2001 Sugar and 2004 Peach – and overcoming a 23-point third quarter deficit to shock the Gators in their last regular-season meeting in 2003. Unfortunately for Miami, Florida knows all this and has the personnel to extract a really horrible payback. This could get bad quick.
Florida 41, Miami (Fla) 13
Cincinnati (+21.5) at Oklahoma
Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches that you’ve never heard of, as he led a downtrodden Central Michigan team to the top of the MAC before somehow extracting 10 wins out of the Bearcats in his first year in Cincy. When Notre Dame fires Charlie Weis, Kelly is a guy who the Irish will look at. Unfortunately, none of that matters against Oklahoma. The Sooners like to embarrass people early and will have their way with Cincy.
Oklahoma 45, Cincinnati 19
Georgia Tech (+7) at Boston College
The Pac-10 isn’t the only conference playing random early-September conference games, with the Yellow Jackets and Golden Eagles pulling that trick. Ga. Tech’s new triple-option offense went off nicely against Jacksonville State, but then again, its Jacksonville State. Boston College is one of those teams no one ever talks about that ends up doing pretty well. That statement should tell you where I”m going with this.
Boston College 24, Georgia Tech 14
Texas Tech (-10) at Nevada
Whatever the over is on this game when you bet it (currently 67.5), take it and don’t feel the least bit bad. The Red Raiders have been near the top of Division I in passing yards and touchdowns for about five years now, while the Wolfpack are explosive in their own right with sophomore dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick. I think Tech has a little more D in its bag, but there will be fireworks.
Texas Tech 51, Nevada 42
Straight-up through one week: 8-2. Against the spread: 6-4.
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