Week 4 college picks

The downward spiral of my college picks continue, as I went a pretty crappy 3-6-1 a week ago against the spread. I’m just going to stop picking Michigan games, or just stop picking them to win.

Luckily (for the reading audience and for the alum), the Wolverines don’t play this week.

Arizona (-3) at UCLA
All I have to really say is wow. That’s in reference to both teams, but more to UCLA. 59-0? Really, Bruins? I thought BYU would win, but I didn’t think UCLA would lose in a way that they haven’t since the Great Depression. I also didn’t think Arizona would lose to a winless New Mexico team. The Wildcats aren’t quite ready for Primetime, but the Bruins from the first-half of the Tennessee game (four turnovers) are what we are more likely to see for the time being.
Arizona 27, UCLA 13

Georgia (-7) at Arizona State
The Sun Devils were caught looking ahead badly last week, losing to a UNLV team at home that only has eight wins in the past four seasons. Just bad tidings all around. Georgia had issues of its own with South Carolina, needing a gift Gamecock fumble at the Georgia 1 to avoid overtime. However, South Carolina would work UNLV. I should pick Georgia to cover, but after the Tennessee-UCLA game, I refuse to question the West Coast theory again. This will be entertaining.
Georgia 30, Arizona State 27

Boise State (+10) at Oregon
The Broncos have accomplished quite a bit over the last five years – winning four WAC titles, going undefeated and beating Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago, having a ton of local stars (Ryan Clady, Gerald Alexander, Ian Johnson, Ryan Putnam, etc.). However, Boise State hasn’t done well against the Pac-10 on the road. And while Oregon is down to its third- or fourth-string quarterback (I’m not sure which), it keeps rolling. I’m taking the Ducks and Rancho Cucamonga graduate Patrick Chung.
Oregon 33, Boise State 21

San Jose State (+8) at Stanford
If I get another Stanford game wrong in this space, I’m not picking a Cardinal game ever again. Ok, I’m not serious with that, but Stanford hasn’t exactly followed up its Oregon State win gracefully. And San Jose State, which gave Stanford problems during the Tyrone Willingham era, isn’t completely awful. But I think the Cardinal are ultimately on the right track and should take this game.
Stanford 38, San Jose State 20

LSU (-2.5) at Auburn
Auburn had possibly the most unlikely win as far as score is concerned last week, somehow beating Mississippi State 3-2. Yeah, I’ve never seen that in a college football game either. I did see Michigan (sorry) beat Purdue 5-0 in a snow/ice storm in 1995, but that’s as close as I can come. LSU has had its issues at Auburn and I just don’t trust the LSU QBs in this environment. Auburn wins a nailbiter.
Auburn 10, LSU 9

Florida (-7.5) at Tennessee
Yes, that’s two SEC games in a row and three so far that involve SEC schools. But quite frankly, the SEC is the best conference going right now (especially after the Pac-10’s ofer against the Mountain West last week) and are already into their conference slate. My opinion of Tennessee has gone down quite a bit since the season has started and wasn’t helped by UCLA’s loss to BYU. While the Vols, embarrassed by Florida 59-20 last year, will be hungry, I don’t think they have the guns to win this fight.
Florida 34, Tennessee 19

Notre Dame (+9) at Michigan State
After the win over Michigan last week, Notre Dame is supposedly back on the map. However, six Michigan turnovers – one of which the ND defense scored on and two of which set up TD drives from inside the Michigan 15 – made last week easy for the Irish. Michigan State plays Notre Dame tough traditionally and with senior RB Javon Ringer, will wear down ND on the ground. I see Sparty wearing Notre Dame down.
Michigan State 34, Notre Dame 21

Wake Forest (+4.5) at Florida State
If you look at the talent dispersal, you wonder how Florida State would ever lose to the Demon Deacons. But Wake has had FSU’s number, tattooing the Seminoles 30-0 two years ago in Tallahassee and beating them again in Winston-Salem last year. Its hard to really get a gauge on Florida State, which has killed two I-AA teams, but Wake makes more out of its talent than any BCS-conference team.
Florida State 21, Wake Forest 20

Miami (Fla) (-3) at Texas A&M
When this game was set up 5-10 years ago, it looked like a September battle between a college football power (Miami) and a tradition-rich, fairly-good program (A&M). Quite frankly, its none of that. The Hurricanes are picking up the pieces from the Larry Coker era, an era that has left them completely bare offensively, while the Aggies have already lost to Arkansas State this season. Not Arkansas, Arkansas State. It will be ugly.
Miami (Fla) 16, Texas A&M 12

Alabama (-9) at Arkansas
Both of these teams are undefeated, but that doesn’t make them equal. The Crimson Tide made a statement early, bombing what was a top-10 ranked Clemson team opening weekend. With top notch talent coming in, Alabama should be near the top of the SEC before long. Arkansas, meanwhile, had to have crazy fourth-quarter comebacks to beat I-AA Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. That’s not going to be possible tomorrow.
Alabama 37, Arkansas 17

Overall record: 23-7. Record against spread: 13-16-1

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