Came back to earth last week, missing four games outright and six games against the spread. Let’s see if we can’t do better this week.
Washington (+46.5) at USC
The crazy thing about this spread is that it keeps growing despite its enormity. USC did cover a 40-plus point spread a couple weeks ago against Washington State and Washington is bad. However, I see the Trojans falling just short of covering this one, as I think they treate it more like a preseason game than anything else.
USC 42, Washington 3
Oregon (+2.5) at California
These two teams are battling to see who is the best Pac-10 team not named USC. Well, I guess Oregon State should be in that debate too. The Ducks, due to using 14 quarterbacks this season, are basically a run-based team at this point. They are good at what they do, but not quite good enough to beat a Cal team that seems to play well at home.
California 31, Oregon 24
Arizona State (+15.5) at Oregon State
The Sun Devils’ fall from grace has been shocking and thorough, as they went from a 10-win team last year to a team that’s lost five in a row despite having an acclaimed fifth-year senior quarterback. Oregon State, meanwhile, seems to be doing its second-half surge that its become famous for under Mike Riley. Beavers with the cover.
Oregon State 34, Arizona State 16
Washington State (+30) at Stanford
Washington State is awful. That goes without saying. Stanford is mediocre. That goes without saying as well. Normally I wouldn’t touch the Cardinal with a 10-foot pole in this game, but Washington State is pathetic.
Stanford 48, Washington State 10
Texas (-3.5) at Texas Tech
For the fourth straight week, the Longhorns are playing in the game of the week. Such is the life of the Big 12. Tech is in game two of its own hellish four-game stretch, with the Oklahoma schools next on the docket. I think the Longhorns are good but its hard to get up for a big game four weeks in a row. I’m taking a mentally-fresher home team.
Texas Tech 41, Texas 35
Florida (-6.5) vs. Georgia
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is the world’s largest national championship elimination game, at least until next week. Georgia created a buzz last year, throttling the Gators in a game where the entire team came out on the field to celebrate a 1-yard touchdown. The Gators haven’t forgotten that and will take their revenge tomorrow.
Florida 30, Georgia 17
Florida State (+2) at Georgia Tech
I’ve been pretty wrong on Florida State the last few games of theirs I’ve picked. I picked them against Miami and picked them against Virginia Tech and have whiffed both times. So of course I’m picking Georgia Tech in this game. The Yellow Jackets are good defensively and have taken to the triple-option well. Plus, they are at home. Good enough for me.
Georgia Tech 21, Florida State 17
Wisconsin (+5.5) at Michigan State
Yeah, there wasn’t much to go with in the Big Ten this week, with Penn State and Ohio State on byes and Michigan being terrible, so this is what we get. The Spartans were feeling high and mighty after beating the Wolverines for the first time since 2001, even putting out a billboard about it. That kind of hubris isn’t treated very well in the world of karma, meaning the Badgers will pull the upset.
Wisconsin 23, Michigan State 21
West Virginia (-3.5) at Connecticut
This week must stink if I’m talking about a Big East game. Oh well, had to happen sometime. The Mountaineers put over 60 points on the Huskies last year, right before they lost to Pittsburgh and lost their coach. WVU isn’t quite what it was and UConn will come out pumped. Yep, I’m going with the upset.
Connecticut 26, West Virginia 23
Nebraska (+21.5) at Oklahoma
Back when the Big 12 was the Big 8, this was the premier rivalry in the Heartland. However, it barely makes much of a blip on the radar anymore. A lot of that has to do with Nebraska’s mediocrity and a lot has to do with the Big 12′s rotating schedule. Either way, don’t expect this to be much of a game.
Oklahoma 42, Nebraska 17
Overall record: 63-27. Against the spread: 43-46-1