Week 11 NFL picks

Not a great week last week, but what else is new? At least I’m safely above .500 straight up at this point.

Denver (+6.5) at Atlanta
I’ve resisted the Falcons all year and have paid for it in my crappy record. So I’m on board Atlanta. Plus, Denver’s porous run D + Atlanta’s running game equals a big day in the Dirty South.
Atlanta 30, Denver 20

Oakland (+10) at Miami
The Raiders pick off four passes last week and still lose by double-digits? Yikes. Against a good Miami team, this could get ugly quick.
Miami 27, Oakland 6

Baltimore (+7) at N.Y. Giants
It’s amazing how well Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan have played as rookie quarterbacks. Playing the defending champs will be tough on Flacco, but I think the Ravens hang around enough to cover.
N.Y. Giants 23, Baltimore 17

Houston (+8) at Indianapolis
Are the Colts truly back to being the Colts? Well, wins over the Patriots and Steelers aren’t to be taken lightly. I can’t see Houston being much of a road threat.
Indianapolis 31, Houston 16

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville
I realize the Jags killed the Lions, but I don’t think they are still all the way back. Tennessee tends to play well against Jacksonville even when they aren’t unbeaten.
Tennessee 20, Jacksonville 14

Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay
The Packers have got to be pretty desperate at this point. However, desperation doesn’t matter when you can’t stop the run. With Miller grad Nick Barnett out for the season, a thin Green Bay D gets thinner.
Chicago 24, Green Bay 21

Philadelphia (-9) at Cincinnati
The Eagles beat the crap out of bad teams, lose to good teams. Cincinnati is definitely a bad team.
Philadelphia 33, Cincinnati 17

New Orleans (-5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs have shown some spunk lately, taking the Bucs to OT and coming a 2-point conversion short of shocking the Chargers. I’m taking the upset here.
Kansas City 24, New Orleans 20

Detroit (+14) at Carolina
The Lions very well could go 0-16. I’m not kidding, I don’t see a win on their schedule from here on out. Carolina certainly isn’t going to be the win.
Carolina 35, Detroit 13

Minnesota (+4) at Tampa Bay
I don’t think its possible for the Vikings to go on a winning streak. Therefore, I don’t see this win happening.
Tampa Bay 21, Minnesota 14

St. Louis (+6.5) at San Francisco
I don’t trust either team at this point. How can you? I’ll go with the underdog to cover just cause.
San Francisco 20, St. Louis 17

Arizona (-3) at Seattle
The good news for the Seahawks is that Matt Hasselbeck is back. The bad news is that Seattle is still lacking good wide receiver play.
Arizona 24, Seattle 14

San Diego (+5) at Pittsburgh
The Chargers have to come on sometime right? This is way too talented to be an 4-5 team. However, I don’t see the Steelers losing two in a row at home. So we’ll go with Pittsburgh to win, the Diego to cover.
Pittsburgh 26, San Diego 24

Dallas (-1.5) at Washington
Tony Romo is back. Clinton Portis is not playing. But are the Cowboys really capable mentally of making a run? There’s no questioning the talent. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.
Dallas 27, Washington 19

Cleveland (+5) at Buffalo
Two teams that need a win bad. I was impressed with Brady Quinn in his first start – the Cleveland D, not so much. I think this battle of Lake Erie could be entertaining.
Buffalo 24, Cleveland 21

Overall: 77-66. Record against spread: 62-79-2.