Sierra League playoff breakdown

Now to a pretty complicated one. Lots of ins and outs and what-have-yous in the Sierra, especially when you factor in a possible at-large berth.

1) Chino Hills (7-2, 3-1): Clinches a playoff spot with a victory tomorrow against Diamond Bar. Will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win and losses by Glendora and Damien, or a win and a Glendora loss, as the Huskies own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Damien. Would get the No. 2 seed with a win, a Damien loss and a Glendora win, as Glendora owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Chino Hills. If Chino Hills, Glendora and Damien all win, a three-way flip for seeding ensues, as each team is 1-1 against the others.
Now, if Chino Hills was shocked by Diamond Bar, hilarity could ensue. A Chino Hills loss and wins by Glendora and Damien would put the Huskies in the No. 3 spot. A loss and a Damien loss would put the Huskies No. 2 by virtue of their tiebreaker over Damien. A loss and a Glendora loss to Ayala would create a three-way tie for third and a coinflip would be held to determine the two spots, as each team would be 1-1 against the other two. A loss by Chino Hills, Damien and Glendora would create a four-way tie for first. In this situation, Chino Hills would get first, as its 2-1 record against the other three teams would be equal to Damien’s and head of the 1-2 mark for Glendora and Ayala. At that point, Chino Hills would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Damien for the No. 1 seed.
So basically, the only way Chino Hills doesn’t get an automatic spot is a loss, a Glendora loss and a Damien win. That being said, the Huskies would have a great chance at the at-large against Etiwanda or Claremont. Not so much against Upland though.

2) Glendora (6-3, 3-1): Clinches a playoff spot with a victory tonight over Ayala. Clinches the No. 1 seed with a win, a Damien loss and a Chino Hills win by virtue of owning the head-to-head with Chino Hills. Clinches the No. 2 seed with a win, a Damien win and a Chino Hills loss by virtue of Damien holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Glendora. A win by all three teams will cause a three-way flip for seeding, as they all would be 1-1 against the others.
A loss to Ayala would throw things in flux. A loss coupled with wins by Damien and Chino Hills would leave Ayala and Glendora tied for third, with Ayala getting the seed by virtue of its head-to-head win. A loss coupled with a Damien loss would also leave the Tartans out, as Damien would be 2-0 against the other two teams, Ayala would be 1-1 and Glendora 0-2. A loss coupled with a Chino Hills loss would cause a three-way flip for two spots, as Chino Hills, Glendora and Ayala would have 1-1 records against the other two. A loss by all three would cause a four-way tie for first and Glendora would be left out, as Chino Hills and Damien would grab the two two spots by virtue of their 2-1 records against the other three, leaving Glendora and Ayala head-to-head for the third spot, which Glendora would lose.
Basically, Glendora needs to win. There’s only one loss scenario that can get them in the playoffs, and they’d lose out in the at-large debate to everyone in the Baseline League except possibly Claremont.

3) Damien (4-5, 3-1): Has already clinched a playoff spot. Clinches the No. 1 seed with a win, a Glendora win and a Chino Hills loss, as it owns the tiebreaker over Glendora. Clinches the No. 2 seed with a win, a Chino Hills win and a Glendora loss, as Chino Hills owns the tiebreaker over the Spartans. A win by all three would cause a three-way flip for seeding, as each team has a 1-1 record against the other two.
A loss to Chino only matters because it would eliminate any possibility of the Spartans getting the top seed. A loss coupled with wins by Glendora and Chino Hills would tie Damien with Ayala for third, giving the Spartans the No. 3 seed by virtue of owning the tiebreaker against Ayala. A loss and a Chino Hills loss would make Damien the No. 3 seed as well, as Damien loses the tiebreaker to Chino Hills. A loss plus a Glendora loss would put Damien, Glendora and Ayala in a three-way tie for second, with Damien getting the No. 2 seed because of a 2-0 record against the other two. A loss by Damien, Chino Hills and Glendora would cause a four-way tie for first. Damien and Chino Hills would separate as the top two seeds thanks to their 2-1 records against the other three, with Damien getting the No. 2 seed due to Chino Hills holding the tiebreaker.

4) Ayala (6-3, 2-2): Basically Ayala clinches a playoff spot with a win over Glendora in every scenario but one. That scenario would be a win coupled with a Damien win and a Chino Hills loss, which would cause a three-way flip between Chino Hills, Glendora and Ayala for the last two spots, as each team is 1-1 against the others. A win and wins by Chino Hills and Damien puts the Bulldogs tied with third with Glendora, giving them the No. 3 seed by virtue of the win over Glendora. A win, a Chino Hills win and a Damien loss would put Ayala in the No. 3 spot as well, as Damien would win the tiebreaker for the No. 2 spot by virtue of wins against the other two, while Ayala would beat out Glendora in the head-to-head tiebreaker.
A loss and Ayala is left hoping for an at-large. And unless Claremont is the eligible at-large from the Baseline League, the Bulldogs will not get the extra spot.

5) Diamond Bar (1-8, 1-3): Eliminated from playoff consideration.

6) Chino (0-9, 0-4): Eliminated from playoff consideration.