I would take these picks with a grain of salt because, quite frankly, I’ve stunk during the playoffs thus far. That being said, I have a theory on picking Super Bowl participants which I call “The Middle Ground Theory.”
I’ve noticed that in recent years that of the final four NFL teams, the Super Bowl matchup tends to not me the least desirable or most-desirable matchup according to ratings. For example, the ideal matchup last year would have been Pittsburgh-Philadelphia (battle of Pennsylvania, Steelers vs. McNabb, etc.) and the least-desirable matchup would have been Arizona-Baltimore. While Pittsburgh-Philly was the favored matchup according to point spreads, Pittsburgh-Arizona is what we got.
In 2007, New England-Green Bay was the most desirable matchup and the favored matchup according to point spreads, as it would have been the undefeated Patriots playing Brett Favre in perhaps Favre’s final game (yeah right) in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI. The least desirable matchup would have been San Diego-N.Y. Giants more than likely, even though I guess you could hype the Rivers-Manning draft day trade drama. So what did we get? New England-New York Giants.
So I’m making my picks tonight based on that theory. According to it, there is no way the most-desirable matchup of Indianapolis-Minnesota (Manning vs. Favre in a battle between the all-time TD pass leader and his possible successor) will happen, nor will N.Y. Jets-New Orleans (rematch of a ho-hum regular-season game the Saints won handily).
That leaves either Indianapolis-New Orleans (the battle of the last two undefeated teams, would be the most desirable matchup if it wasn’t for Favre) or N.Y. Jets-Minnesota (Favre against the team he retired from so he could go to Minnesota) as the options. So that gives you the logic of my winners for tomorrow. As for my picks, here they are, though I don’t take any offense if you decide to fend for yourselves here.
N.Y. Jets (+7.5) over INDIANAPOLIS – I have the Colts winning outright, but I’ll pick the Jets to cover. That defense and running game will keep the score close.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Minnesota – Should be high-scoring and fun, but the crazy Saints fans will put their team over the top.
Last week: 1-3