PROFILE

GreenNick1.jpg Columnist Nick Green has written 100 Percent Soccer since 2005. A native of England, he began writing about soccer in the mid-1980s and in 2000 permanently exchanged a seat in the stands for one in the press box. He lives six miles from Carson's Home Depot Center, home of the Los Angeles Galaxy, Chivas USA and the training headquarters for U.S. Soccer. Married to a long-suffering soccer widow, he has a cat named Pele.


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(Anti) MLS Draft Preview and Latest Guzan Gossip

First, let's get the rumor out of the way: The New York Times soccer blog, Goal, is reporting that Chivas USA goalkeeper Brad Guzan is on his way to Fulham.

Considering how many Americans Fulham has on its squad, that's a little like linking CD Guadalajara with every Mexican player that's available.

Still, it's clear Guzan is going overseas sooner rather than later and deservedly so. Bet he would prefer Arsenal to Fulham, though, given their relative positions in the EPL.

Now onto Friday's underwhelming MLS Superdraft, although no-one actually calls it that largely because it's not so super. It is in fact the least important draft held by any U.S. sports league. (As if to confirm that, ESPN2 will show the first hour only beginning at 11 a.m.).

For a start, relatively few people actually pay attention to college soccer. Unlike the pointy-ball version of football that saturates the airwaves in the fall, college soccer is relegated to obscure cable channels. So while NFL draft analysts can hyperventilate about the latest running back prospect from Weber State and the average follower of college football understands the excitement (or at least recognizes the name), did anyone get pumped about the Galaxy drafting goalkeeper Tally Hall last year out of San Diego State? Probably Hall's mom.

And where is Hall these days anyway? Not with the Galaxy. For that matter how many of the Galaxy's No. 1 draft picks over the years are still with the team? Zero. And only two of last year's draft picks are still with the Galaxy, slow defender Ty Hardin and the hirstute Josh Tudela who got surprisingly few minutes last season given the extent of the Galaxy's casualty ward.

The draft is likely to decline in importance in the coming years even further as the gap between MLS and the college game widens, as it should if MLS is to continue to improve.

This year's draft is particularly weak as Michael Lewis pointed out earlier this week in the (New York) Daily News with New York Red Bulls Coach Juan Carlos Osorio pretty much writing off the process as a non-event, considering his team doesn't have a pick until the second round of the fourth round draft:

"If I am honest with you without criticizing or hurting anybody, I don't think there will be enough players to wait around for the second round," Osorio said.

The new coach said he felt that there were five players at the MLS combine in Fort Lauderdale that were good enough to compete for a starting position and not more than 10 players who could make a team.

"I'm not just speaking on behalf of my own opinion but on behalf of the all the coaches as part of a general consensus," he said. "This time around doesn't have as many players as previous ones."

Drafts it seems are all about stats. And soccer is not about stats as much as other American sports. There are more intangibles involved. It's subtler, it's about vision and reading a game.

It's not about how fast you can run a 40-yard dash. Or whether being 6 foot-1 is tall enough for a goalkeeper.

Soccer is more than athleticism or physical attributes (or should be; soccer in the U.S. is still struggling with this concept). No one cared how fast Carlos Valderrama was or whether Kevin Keegan was tall enough. It's about touch, anticipation and whether a player possessed a soccer brain.

So you can keep your player rankings, mock drafts and endless speculation. Especially since virtually every player picked will be trundled out to interviews afterwards and say a variation on "I'm really pleased to be picked by blank and will try my hardest to make the squad." Even if they're not.

Not particularly enlightening, but what do we expect?

Remain unconvinced of the draft's dubious value?

Then check out the draft history here.

And follow along here.

Wake me when it's over.

Still, at least the draft provides a modicum of publicity for U.S. soccer.

Check out the guest list for the two-hour show that begins at 8 tonight on Fox Soccer Channel (from the edited FSC press release):

Major League Soccer Commissioner Don Garber, NSCAA President Steve Malone, United Soccer Leagues President Francisco Marcos, Women’s Soccer Initiative Chief Executive Officer Tonya Antonucci, Houston Dynamo Head Coach Dominic Kinnear, U.S. Youth Soccer Technical Director John Ellinger and Wake Forest University Head Men’s Soccer Coach Jay Vidovich. Moderated by Fox Soccer Channel’s Max Bretos, the program will also feature network personalities Christopher Sullivan and Mark Rogondino and Fox Soccer Report’s Bobby McMahon.


Comments

I agree with most of your draft meta-analysis and I expect that one minor factor in the weakness of the draft is the slowly-expanding number of other sites for developing young American talent. Generation Addidas, Bradenton, the growing elite private club teams, the start of pro-affiliated youth programs (all of which have some overlap with each other) all siphon a portion of kids away from college into the pros earlier. Plus a few good prospects went over to Europe early (Sal Zizzo for example). As I say this effect is minor, but will certainly grow over time. In 10-15 years the college draft will be a complete sideshow for MLS.

One other comment. I think you are being a mite unfair to Josh Tudela. While there was a serious injury problem with LA last year all over the field, the one place with the most depth was central midfield, where Tudela plays.

Yes there were times when only 15 players could suit up and Tudela still didn't make the field. But it is also true that by the end of the season, despite having lots of people back from injury, Tudela finished out the season as the starting option at holding midfielder. Plus if you saw him play earlier you know why he didn't get minutes until he did (same with Mike Randolph). That said he actually showed lots of improvement, which I think makes him a poor example of the problem with the SuperDraft.

I'm not saying he's the next coming of anyone, but I think you gave him short shrift.

Nick replies:

I agree with your points regarding other methods of developing players superceding the draft, Nathan. Eventually, the club youth systems in MLS will mean teams developing their own talent rather than relying on colleges.

As for Tudela, point taken. He came on strong late in the season and the Galaxy does have a surplus of players in central midfield.

Still, it does point up the problem of trying to stock small MLS rosters with raw college talent. That's OK in the NFL, but if MLS is to improve its quality it must find better ways of finding talented youngsters.

I've been thinking about reforms to various college sports for a bit now, and something came to me: as college soccer becomes increasingly irrelevant to developing the country's talent and providing the MLS with players, couldn't it work in reverse?

Think about it: NCAA soccer teams could offer scholarships to players who haven't been able to succeed (yet) at the pros.

Players would receive an education while improving the level of play at the NCAA level. Leaving the school before three seasons could mean paying back tuition for the player, in order to protect the universities' interest.

It might seem like stocking the NCAA with has-beens, but it's better than stocking it with never-will's.

Does anyone else see this working in about five to 10 years? The NCAA would throw a fit, but it's worth considering (or maybe they already have and I haven't enough).

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