The hot pick in the Derby

- He's the only horse in the race this year with the demonstrated talent and record of accomplishment that marks sure-fire Kentucky Derby contenders.

- It's logical to excuse his fading 10th-place finish, more than 11 lengths behind the winner, in his Derby prep race since it was run on a Polytrack surface at Keeneland instead of natural dirt like Churchill Downs'.

Horses do bounce back from horrible races and win. Just look at the careers of the 20 horses in this Derby. Nine times in their previous races, these horses have suffered defeats by 10 lengths or more, and four times, they won their next starts.

All four bounce-back wins came when horses changed footing -- one mud-to-fast-dirt, one dirt-to-turf, and two dirt-to-synthetics.

Before Pyro's misadventures in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, he had run all his races on natural dirt. He was last season's second-best 2-year-old (to War Pass, since injured and out of the Derby), and he laid down this season's most eye-catching performance by a 3-year-old with a from-behind victory in the Risen Star in February.

Big Brown is the favorite Saturday based on his runaway win in the Florida Derby. If he can repeat that effort, Big Brown probably wins. But Big Brown has raced only three times in his life, only once at the stakes level, the Derby demands more seasoning.

Pyro trainer Steve Asmussen knows about the seasoning factor: Last year, his colt Curlin came into the Derby as the most talented but least experienced horse. Curlin finished a troubled third in the Derby, then asserted his talent the rest of the season and was voted Horse of the Year.

Pyro is the only horse in the Derby who has both two or more victories at the graded-stakes level (the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby) and two or more Beyer speed figures of 100 or higher (100 in the Champagne Stakes, 105 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile).

In the past five years, 15 horses came into the Derby with that double-double distinction. They produced three wins (Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Street Sense), two second-place finishes, four thirds, two fourths, a fifth, a sixth, a seventh and a 10th. In other words, they pretty much all ran big.

If Pyro runs poorly, we'll know the reason why: The Blue Grass result was meaningful after all, and it meant he'd gone off form.

But more likely, back on real dirt, Pyro will be back to his old self -- a colt who's talented and tested in the right combination to win America's hardest-to-win horse race.

My prediction: 1. Pyro, 2. Big Brown, 3. Z Fortune. Longshot: Smooth Air.