Long way to go for Big Brown

I wrote: It is going to take a 3-year-old of a type that's increasingly rare -- one versatile enough to win the 1 1/16- and 1 1/8-mile prep races that get a horse to the classics, to win the Kentucky Derby at 1 1/4 and the Preakness at 1 3/16 to set up a Triple Crown possibility, and win the Belmont at the marathon 1 1/2.

Most Triple Crown hopefuls are tripped up by the Belmont distance: Since Affirmed's Triple Crown in 1978, 10 horses have gone to the Belmont with a shot at the sport's ultimate prize. Five of them were ahead after 1 1/4 miles only to get caught. Four of the remaining five lost ground between the 1 1/4-mile mark and the finish. Only Pleasant Colony, in 1981, gained on the leader in the homestretch.

In the old days, when there were 11 Triple Crown sweeps between 1919 and 1978, things were different. Great horses were expected to run long. Distance races were carded regularly. Horses were bred with that in mind. Breeders were less fixated on quick bucks tied to fast sprint clockings at 2-year-old auction previews.

Of the 11 Triple Crown winners, nine ran in subsequent races of 1 1/2 to more than 2 miles, and they combined for 15 wins in 28 starts at such distances. Try to find another major race as long as the Belmont Stakes these days. The Jockey Club Gold Cup in the fall at Belmont Park, a 2-mile race when it was won by War Admiral, Whirlaway and Citation, and a 1 1/2-mile event when Affirmed won and Seattle Slew finished second, now is one of the nation's many 1 1/4-mile handicaps.

Little about Big Brown himself suggests he's immune to those problems. The horse in this Belmont's field of 10 who seems born to the 1 1/2 miles is not Big Brown but Casino Drive.

Unfortunately for those hoping the unbeaten Big Brown finally will face a fight, Casino Drive is struggling with a hoof bruise and might not get to the starting gate. Unfortunately for Big Brown too, because if he simply waltzes to another one-sided victory, he won't earn as much respect as if he repels a neck-and-neck challenge.

If Big Brown wins, these are the likely storylines:

- History: It's the first Triple Crown sweep since Affirmed 30 years ago. (No denying it's a huge accomplishment, but racing has changed so much that historical comparisons to the 1970s' Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed are tenuous.)

- Questions: Skeptics will say Big Brown the best of a weak crop of 3-year-olds. (Probably true, but instead of complaining, they should have come up with the horse who could beat him.)

- Impact: Some will say this is great news for the embattled sport of horse racing. (Ridiculous. It's not bad news. But horse racing isn't about star horses, it's about a great form of sports gambling, and the key to its popularity is convincing people they can win money at the track.)

If Big Brown loses, this is the likely storyline:

- What went wrong: A Triple Crown hopeful finds that 1 1/2 miles is a completely different animal. (What else is new?)

For more on the Belmont Stakes: Look for staff writer Art Wilson's coverage in the newspapers -- and their Web sites -- listed at right.