The red-hot rivalry between two-time defending French Open champ RAFAEL NADAL and world number one ROGER FEDERER really gives this year's tournament an epic storyline. Will Federer, who finally beat Nadal on clay last week in Hamburg, be able to finally win the only grand slam title to have eluded him? The win in Germany - a decisive 2-6,6-2,6-0 victory, snapped Nadal's historic 81-match winning streak on clay. It wasn't just another tournament win for Federer: it was a pyschological breakthrough that came along at the time he needed it the most. He's lost to Nadal the last two years in Paris is the semis and in the final, respectively, and is too proud a champion to let Rafael complete a hat trick of French titles at his expense.
But this has been a strange year for Federer. The highs have included a third Australian Open crown and the victory in Hamburg. But he suffered to unexpected losses to Guillermo Canas in both Indian Wells and Miami then a really puzzling defeat to a qualifier in Rome. His fourth loss was to Nadal in the final at Monte Carlo on clay. So Federer is strong, but certainly not unbeatable.
As for Nadal, the Spaniard will be keen to avenge the loss to Federer, a player he has beaten in seven of their 11 matches. He goes into Paris without the pressure of the clay streak and is clearly the very best player on the surface. Nadal is just 21, he's not afraid to win and he wants it. He has won four tournaments this year - three on clay - and I think is a shoo-in to beat anyone but Federer. That is, unless he is inujured or too tired from a grueling clay season that had him playing in a final virtually every weekend.
If Federer and/or Nadal stumble, who might slide their way into the semis or final?
I'm looking at LLEYTON HEWITT of all people! He seems really hungry right now, is healthy finally, and has had some strong results on the clay including a semifinal appearance in Hamburg where he took Nadal to 7-5 in the third before losing. Hewitt is a former number one and winner of Wimbledon and the US Open so he's not afraid to go the distance. I'd love to see him cause some trouble.
The field has plenty of former French champs including JUAN CARLOS FERERRO (#19), CARLOS MOYA (#36) and GASTON GAUDIO (#63) but none of them seem likely to make it past the quarterfinals. I like the chances of others in the top 10 like FERNANDO GONZALEZ (#5) who made it to the final in Rome, NOVAK DJOKOVIC (#6) who is having a breakthrough year on several surfaces, TOMMY ROBREDO (#7) and DAVID FERRER (#14) who are always a threat on clay.
Things don't look so promising for the Americans in Paris despite both ANDY RODDICK and JAMES BLAKE in the top 10. Just isn't gonna happen. Meanwhile, both TOMMY HAAS and ANDY MURRAY have withdrawn from the tournament.
And so, I think (and hope!) it comes down to Federer and Nadal in the final. If it does, I'm gonna pick Federer to win in five sets.