Golden Globe Predictions
This year’s Golden Globes promises to be a tight race in many film categories while in other areas the top choice is more obvious. In some categories its veterans against the up-and-coming and in others experience is not going to be the deciding factor.
One of the closest battles is going to be for the Golden Globe for Best Drama. The nominees include “Babel,” a condemnation of the tragic state of affairs due to humanity’s inability to positively communicate, “Bobby,” depicting the final day of Bobby Kennedy’s life as seen through the eyes of the guests at the Ambassador Hotel, the cop-mafia tale of betrayal “The Departed,” an urban look at the consequences of failing to grow up in “Little Children,” and a behind-the-scenes view of the royal family’s decisions surrounding the death of Princess Diana in “The Queen.”
Amongst these films by up and coming directors it is likely the veteran Hollywood man Martin Scorsese who is likely to take home the top prize. His competition is up and coming and most have earned critical acclaim for previous films. However, the slew of Golden Globe nominations “The Departed” earned — six — is going to tip the scales heavily in its favor on awards night.
Though actor turned director Emilio Estevez’s “Bobby” was worthy of critical attention for its artful and heartfelt social commentary, it was this director’s first serious film and is likely to be the odd man out in this race. Alejandro Inarritu is also likely to miss out on the big prize for his socially critical film “Babel.” He has two critically successful films to his name (“21 Grams” and “Amores Perros”) and it was time he earned award attention, but Hollywood likes a man who pays his dues. For the same reason Stephen Frears’ “The Queen” and Todd Field’s “Little Children” will also have to settle for earning their first Golden Globe nods. Both directors have showed great promise, but are far from becoming established.
In an unusual twist, though Scorsese’s film is most likely to earn Best Drama, he will have to watch another director go home with the Best Director Golden Globe. With two nominations to his name for his films about the battle of Iwo Jima — “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Letters From Iwo Jima” — Clint Eastwood is going to be tough, if not impossible to beat. Despite offering tough competition, Frears and Inarritu, as well as Scorsese will watch one of Hollywood’s favorites become one of the most winningest directors in American film history.
Eastwood is also going to take home the Golden Globe for Best Foreign Language Film for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” Critics have hailed this film as not only one of this year’s best, but also as a film destined to become a cinematic classic. Mel Gibson’s Mayan epic “Apocalypto” is likely to finish a close second. Though the film was more than deserving of critical attention, Gibson’s recent notoriety is sure to place him behind one of Hollywood’s most popular directors. The rest of the nominees include the German drama “The Lives of Others,” the Spanish fantasy adventure “Pan’s Labyrinth” and the Spanish drama “Volver.”
Another obvious winner is in the category of Best Musical or Comedy. The nominees include the slapstick comedy “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan,” the comedic look at how the fashion industry challenges one young journalist’s integrity in “The Devil Wears Prada,” the ups and downs of a dysfunctional family on a road trip to a children’s beauty pageant in “Little Miss Sunshine” and “Thank You For Smoking,” a dark comedy about the life of a tobacco lobbyist. However, there is one nominee that outshines all the others and that is the musical extravaganza “Dreamgirls” about a trio of black female singers rise to the top of the pop charts in the 1960s. This film achieved near cinematic perfection and will walk off with the award that proves its triumph on Golden Globe night.
“Dreamgirls” is also bound to earn at least one more prize for Best Original Song. Not present in the original Broadway musical, “Listen” was specifically written for the big screen and powerfully presented by Beyonce Knowles. It would be a surprise if “A Father’s Way” from the film “The Pursuit of Happyness,” “Never Gonna Break My Faith” from Bobby, “The Song of the Heart” from “Happy Feet” or “Try Not to Remember” from “Home of the Brave” ran off with the Golden Globe.
However, Best Original Score is likely to go to a film recognized for nothing else, other than perhaps being the most interesting failure of 2006 — “The Fountain.” The music of this film was inseparable from the action, not just complementing it, but also adding heart and the soul. This is the definition of Best Original Score and composer Clint Mansell is more than worthy of the Golden Globe. His scores for “Requiem for a Dream” and “Pi” also drew critical attention for their power and presence. “The Fountain’s” competition includes “The Painted Veil,” “Babel,” which also had a powerful and moving sound composed by Gustavo Santaolalla, (who also wrote the scores for 2005 notable films “North Country” and “Brokeback Mountain”), “Nomad” and “The Da Vinci Code.”
Now it comes down to the individual winners, the actors and actresses that poured their hearts out on the big screen for our cinematic pleasure. It is going to be a tough race in the drama categories, but the stars of the comedy arena are most likely to shine the clearest. In the category of Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy the clear winner is sure to be Annette Bening for her portrayal of the emotionally unbalanced mother of Augusten Burroughs in “Running with Scissors.”
She has some tough competition from fellow Hollywood veteran Meryl Streep as the she-devil fashion icon in “The Devil Wears Prada” and young star Rene Zellweger as the author of the Peter Rabbit tales in “Miss Potter.” However, Bening’s role required her to stretch her wings the farthest and reach the deepest to deliver a convincing performance.
Other nominees include Toni Collette for her role as the tell-all honest mother in “Little Miss Sunshine” and Beyonce Knowles as the beautiful lead singer in “Dreamgirls.” Collette’s performance, though delivered well, was not a role written to win awards. Any number of performers could have delivered her lines with equal success. And though Knowles proved she could hold her own on the big screen as well as behind a mike, she did not have to reach very far to play the sweet singer.
The winner of the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy is also likely to be a sure bet. Despite competition from Hollywood favorites, such as Johnny Depp for his second stint as the quirky pirate Captain Jack Sparrow in “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and Will Ferrell for his first award-worthy performance as the doomed Harry Crick in “Stranger than Fiction,” Sacha Cohen will walk away with the prize for his portrayal of the laughable tourist in “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan.”
Depp was once again fabulous as the morally challenged pirate, but it was nothing new and having done it once it is no surprise he was able to please audiences again. Ferrell’s character was simultaneously loveable, laughable and laudable, but this was a role others could have played with equal success.
Aaron Eckhart was nominated for his portrayal of the tobacco lobbyist trying to maintain some integrity before his young son in “Thank You for Smoking.” And though this was a role he delivered exceptionally well, again, Golden Globes are awarded to those who brought something no one else could have to a role no one else could have delivered. This was not one of those roles.
Finally, Chiwetel Ejiofor was nominated for his role in “Kinky Boots,” a film about a down-and-out shoe company that finds a niche selling sexy men’s boots. Ejiofor is going to be the odd man out in this race because, despite a solid performance, who’s even heard of this film? He will have to continue paying his dues before he gets to take home a top Hollywood prize.
The winners of Best Actor and Actress in a Drama is going to be the toughest call to make with some incredibly stiff competition pulling the vote in multiple directions. Leonardo DiCaprio is finally getting the critical recognition he deserves having picked up two Best Actor nominations for the action-adventure dramas “Blood Diamond” and “The Departed.” DiCaprio was brilliant as the self-centered, greedy African diamond smuggler in “Blood Diamond” and almost as powerful as the undercover FBI agent in “The Departed.” If he wins, however, it will be for his mastery of the African accent he convincingly carried all the way through “Blood Diamond.” Having picked up two nods, it would seem that this awards night is sure to be his night, but he may once again lose out to a Hollywood veteran.
Peter O’Toole has been nominated for an Oscar six times in his 50-year career and has never won. In 2003 he earned an honorary Oscar award for his many contributions to cinematic history. He is up for the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama for his performance in “Venus,” a film about a pair of aging actors whose lives are turned upside down by a young performer. Critics enjoyed this film, but primarily praised O’Toole for once again carrying this drama to success. Hollywood is likely to finally recognize this veteran’s many award-winning deliveries with the Golden Globe, leaving DiCaprio out in the cold once more.
Will Smith also earned a Golden Globe nod for his role as the struggling father trying to make a better life for himself and his son in “The Pursuit of Happyness.” His performance deserved critical attention, but again, any one of a number of actors could have delivered this role with equal success.
Finally, Forest Whitaker earned a nod for his performance as the brutal Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in “The Last King of Scotland.” His breakout performance will keep Hollywood’s attention on him in the future and open doors that were shut before. However, he will have to prove his delivery was not a fluke and continue to pay his dues before he will earn a top Hollywood prize.
One of the toughest categories to call is that of Best Actress in a Drama, mainly because most of the nominated roles were delivered in independent films not readily available to the general public. Penelope Cruz is nominated for her role in the Spanish family drama “Volver,” Kate Winslet for “Little Children” and Maggie Gyllenhaal for “Sherrybaby,” all of which have yet to hit mainstream theaters and may not at all depending on how they fare through the awards.
However, the forerunners in this category are not likely to be Gyllenhaal and Cruz, who are still relative newcomers to center stage. Hollywood veterans Judi Dench for her role in “Notes on a Scandal” and Helen Mirren for her portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II in “The Queen” will lead the race. Dench has 50 years in the business to her name, as well as three Oscars to her credit. Mirren is not far behind her with 40 years in Hollywood and two Oscar wins. However, though Mirren portrayed the often-criticized queen with a grace and sensitivity only a person of her experience could have, the role did not have the feel of an award-worthy performance. The role lacked the spark and uniqueness common to the big prizewinners.
Also right there in the thick of things is Winslett who is the youngest actress to have earned four Oscar nominations. She is a Hollywood favorite who makes good role choices. However, if the past is any indication of the future, then Dench will likely add another victory to her resume.
The tightest races are going to be run in the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories, which are chalk full of roles written to win awards. Two actresses in “Babel” picked up Golden Globe nods, Adriana Barraza for her part as the Mexican-American housekeeper and Inko Kikuchi as the deaf and mute Japanese teenager struggling with the suicide of her mother. Both of these roles required the actresses to draw on their acting reserves and are worthy of award attention. The stronger of the two was Kikuchi’s who was the heart and soul of the film. Without her delivery “Babel” would have lost much of its critical steam.
Then there is American Idol contestant Jennifer Hudson’s commanding performance in “Dreamgirls” as the shunned singer Effigy White. With her big, booming voice she swept audiences away with her rendition of “And I’m Telling You I’m Not Going.” Few could have matched her star quality and the Golden Globe would do well to go her way.
And, of course, Academy Award winner Cate Blanchett has earned critical attention this year for her role in “Notes on a Scandal.” She is one of Hollywood’s brightest stars and difficult to look past.
Then there is Emily Blunt who earned her first award nod for her role as the hard-nosed fashion assistant in “The Devil Wears Prada.” Again, this was not a role written to win awards. Though delivered well any number of actresses could have played the unforgiving, snob of a personal assistant.
Despite Blanchett’s popularity this race should come down to Kikuchi and Hudson with Blanchett coming in an incredibly close third. If there is any justice in Hollywood then Hudson should take home the Golden Globe though one can expect more great things from Kikuchi in the future.
Finally, in the Best Supporting Actor arena Ben Affleck may beat his good friend Matt Damon to the awards podium. Affleck delivered a breakout performance as the first Superman George Reeves. “Hollywoodland” did little else right, but Affleck’s performance made the film worth a watch.
However, Affleck has some tough competition from a surprising source, comedic actor Eddie Murphy who played the soul singer on his last leg James “Thunder” Early in “Dreamgirls.” Murphy’s performance was a treat to watch and played to perfection.
Two actors from “The Departed” also earned nods. Veteran performer Jack Nicholson who is no stranger to awards picked up a nod for his part as the Irish mafia boss. Mark Wahlberg followed suit for his portrayal as the tough-talking FBI agent. Though both delivered great performances, it was not a far stretch for Nicholson to play the smooth talking sinister character and Wahlberg’s role lacked the depth common to Golden Globe winners.
Brad Pitt also earned a nod for his role in Babel, but his handful of minutes on the big screen were hardly noteworthy. Any of a number of actors could have played the husband doing his best in the midst of a horrible crisis.
When it comes down to it it is going to be either Affleck or Murphy accepting the Best Supporting Actor Golden Globe and in all fairness it should be Affleck.
The last hard call is that of Best Screenplay. “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Little Children,” “Notes on a Scandal” and “The Queen” all boasted award winning scripts, but the most effective was “The Departed.” It offered some amazing lines and every word was important. There was never a dull moment nor a wasted thought. “The Departed” should walk away with the Golden Globe, though its toughest competition will come from “The Queen” and it would not be a big surprise to see this clever script rob the action packed drama of the award.
This year’s Golden Globes promises some tough competition and unlike last year, it looks like mainstream cinema rather than independent film will rule the day. The pendulum has swung the other way in 2007. Though there are some independent competitors the Hollywood blockbuster has garnered the most attention and the popular films are going to achieve the most success.