Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat’s playoff chances

Joe Amat wrote: While I still strongly feel if Amat happens to finish 3rd in the Serra they will again be the At-Large representative in the Pac5 – upon further review (sound like a replay official!) the way CIF determines strength of schedule (by opponents record) it is closer than it initially appears to be on the surface. “smallcitymc” and tcbruin” have expressed some concern that I’ve tried to put to rest (and still feel fairly confident) but seeing that CIF does not go “next level” by looking at *opponents-opponents record* to determine SOS their concern is “somewhat” warranted. Their process makes a game against a school like Corona Del Mar (who is winless in a weak Pacific Coast league) worth more than playing Loyola(whose schedule was off the charts) or LB Wilson worth as much as Crespi.(both could be 6-4 at seasons end). However, everyone knows who is stronger in both cases. To continue reading click thread

CIF’s tiebreaker for wild-cards is as follows
(a) Head-to-head competition of teams under consideration (4 points)
(b) Overall strength of the league from which the team is entered (1 point)
(c) Overall win-loss record (1 point)
(d) Strength against common opponents (1 point)
(e) Strength of schedule (2 points, using overall win-loss record of opponents)

The computer rankings (MaxPreps/CalPreps, etc) go one level deeper and give a truer SOS. (BTW – this is one reason why Amat has one too many locals on their schedule. What hurts is pretty good schools on Amat’s schedule have .500 records or less: because THEY play tough schedules like Damien, Dominguez-who should make and surprise in the playoffs while DR’s 2-6 doesn’t help at all. Even St Paul and Loyola – who no one would want to play, have bad W-L records – because THEY have played tough schedules)

Keep in mind if NH is 4th place team in the Sunset their record will be 6-4 (inferior to Amats 8-2) Their league will be weaker; they both will have beaten Loyola, and their opponents record will be really too close to call. It looks like it might even benefit Amat to have either FV or Los Al competing with them for a wild card because neither will have a better record – but will definitely have a weaker schedule under the CIF definition.

If Notre Dame is fortunate enough to knock off Amat at Keifer (which no team has done in the Hagerty era) then the best scenario is for Fountain Valley (9-1) to beat Los Alamitos (7-3) and for Newport Harbor (6-4) to defeat Esperanza. My first instinct was that it would be better for NH to lose – but if they lost that gives their opponents 1 more win… thus strengthening their schedule. I also thought it would good for Loyola to beat Crespi-but that gives NH’s opponents 1 more win. If the Celts win – Amat gets +1 and NH doesn’t.

Projected opponents records at the seasons end should be about like the following- give or take a game or two(barring any crazy upsets)..

BA (55-44) keeping in mind – Dominguez only played 9 games and it would have helped Amat if the Dons played a patsie like University or Gardena along the way…. oops!… did I say that out loud? Sorry)
FV (52-48)
LA (50-50)
NH (56-44)

Even if Newport Harbors opponents somehow end up with more wins, the best they could do is tie Amat in the given criteria. Then it is in the committees hands and becomes more subjective. And Amat wins the subjective battle too. In Amat’s favor is the win over Bonnies, better “losses” (yes-there is such a thing. losses to Crespi & ND is better than a loss to Mira Costa – who’d good – but in lower division and who lost to Loyola and Esperanza). Knowing CIF – tradition, name recognition, fan base (read $$$) also could play a part in breaking ties. The only things really hurting Amat is the fact that they were the At-Large team last year. And any private school backlash – either real or imaginary. But the CIF’s Football Advisory Board is heavily involved – and they have Amat at #7 (probably dropping behind dana Hills to #8) with Newport Harbor out of the Top 10. So that says what they think to this point. I don’t see Newport Harbor wins over Marina and Esperanza (if it happens) as being performances that would cause any upward movement and they’d have to leap frog Mater Dei & St John Bosco to get into the Top 10.(who have the same 5-4 record and play each other in a big finale) . FYI – Amat gets in before SJB based on the victories over St Bonnies and Loyola – common opponents.

Confused yet?

All that being said, with CIF you just never know. It’s like officials bad calls. You never want to put yourself in a position that it matters. Just win Friday at home and there is nothing to worry about. That’s the only way to really control your destiny.

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