I have gone through most of the playoff scenarios involving Bishop Amat using the tiebreaker system below, figuring the only teams with a chance of earning the Pac-5 at-large berth are the third place team from the Serra, or the fourth-place team from the Sunset League. Interestingly enough, what we don’t know and won’t know until Sunday is who the CIF advisory committee determines is a stronger league, thus earning a huge point. “If we told you that, it would take away all the fun,” CIF-SS spokesperson Thom Simmons joked. Let’s take the worst case scenario, a Bishop Amat loss, leaving them 8-2 and in third. I will also assume the fourth place team in the Sunset lost, since that’s the only way they could fall to fourth. Here is how they stack up against the competition.

Bishop Amat (8-2) vs. Fountain Valley (8-2)
CIF’s tiebreaker for wild-cards is as follows
(a) Head-to-head competition of teams under consideration (4 points) — Wash, no points
(b) Overall strength of the league from which the team is entered (1 point) — ?
(c) Overall win-loss record (1 point) — Wash, no points
(d) Strength against common opponents (1 point), Wash, no points.
(e) Strength of schedule (2 points, using overall win-loss record of opponents), Advantage Bishop Amat, two points.
Bishop Amat leads 2-0

Bishop Amat (8-2) vs. Newport Harbor (6-4)
CIF’s tiebreaker for wild-cards is as follows
(a) Head-to-head competition of teams under consideration (4 points) — Wash, no points
(b) Overall strength of the league from which the team is entered (1 point) — ?
(c) Overall win-loss record (1 point) — Advantage Amat, 1 point
(d) Strength against common opponents (1 point), Wash, no points.
(e) Strength of schedule (2 points, using overall win-loss record of opponents), Advantage Newpot Harbor, two points.
Newport Harbor leads 2-1 (schedule strength determining factor)

Bishop Amat (8-2) vs. Los Alamitos (7-3)
CIF’s tiebreaker for wild-cards is as follows
(a) Head-to-head competition of teams under consideration (4 points) — Wash, no points
(b) Overall strength of the league from which the team is entered (1 point) — ?
(c) Overall win-loss record (1 point) — Advantage Amat, 1 point
(d) Strength against common opponents (1 point), Wash, no points.
(e) Strength of schedule (2 points, using overall win-loss record of opponents), Advantage Los Alamitos, two points.
Los Alamitos leads 2-1 (schedule strength determining factor)

FINALLY: If Bishop Amat loses, they trail by a point to Los Alamitos and Newport Harbor.Two things have to happen for the Lancers to advance. First, the CIF Advisory committee must determine that the Serra is a stronger league than the Sunset, which would give the Lancers the point they need to finish in a 2-2 tie with Los Alamitos and Newport Harbor. In the event of a tie on points, a four person at-large committee will gather together and use their best judgment when determining who gets the at-large berth. There are other scenarios that come into play, but at the end of the day, people, not point totals or computers, will probably decide who gets in. Also, Joe Amat was right about strength of schedule. If Bishop Amat had scheduled and defeated Azusa, San Dimas and Baldwin Park, who have a combined record of 24-3, it would have been more beneficial than defeating Diamond Ranch (3-6), West Covina (5-4) and Damien (4-5), whose combined record is the reason the Lancers lose the tiebreakers to Los Alamitos and Newport Harbor. Silly isn’t it, but it’s the truth.