Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances

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Joe Amat wrote: While I still strongly feel if Amat happens to finish 3rd in the Serra they will again be the At-Large representative in the Pac5 - upon further review (sound like a replay official!) the way CIF determines strength of schedule (by opponents record) it is closer than it initially appears to be on the surface. "smallcitymc" and tcbruin" have expressed some concern that I've tried to put to rest (and still feel fairly confident) but seeing that CIF does not go "next level" by looking at *opponents-opponents record* to determine SOS their concern is "somewhat" warranted. Their process makes a game against a school like Corona Del Mar (who is winless in a weak Pacific Coast league) worth more than playing Loyola(whose schedule was off the charts) or LB Wilson worth as much as Crespi.(both could be 6-4 at seasons end). However, everyone knows who is stronger in both cases. To continue reading click thread

CIF's tiebreaker for wild-cards is as follows
(a) Head-to-head competition of teams under consideration (4 points)
(b) Overall strength of the league from which the team is entered (1 point)
(c) Overall win-loss record (1 point)
(d) Strength against common opponents (1 point)
(e) Strength of schedule (2 points, using overall win-loss record of opponents)

The computer rankings (MaxPreps/CalPreps, etc) go one level deeper and give a truer SOS. (BTW - this is one reason why Amat has one too many locals on their schedule. What hurts is pretty good schools on Amat's schedule have .500 records or less: because THEY play tough schedules like Damien, Dominguez-who should make and surprise in the playoffs while DR's 2-6 doesn't help at all. Even St Paul and Loyola - who no one would want to play, have bad W-L records - because THEY have played tough schedules)

Keep in mind if NH is 4th place team in the Sunset their record will be 6-4 (inferior to Amats 8-2) Their league will be weaker; they both will have beaten Loyola, and their opponents record will be really too close to call. It looks like it might even benefit Amat to have either FV or Los Al competing with them for a wild card because neither will have a better record - but will definitely have a weaker schedule under the CIF definition.

If Notre Dame is fortunate enough to knock off Amat at Keifer (which no team has done in the Hagerty era) then the best scenario is for Fountain Valley (9-1) to beat Los Alamitos (7-3) and for Newport Harbor (6-4) to defeat Esperanza. My first instinct was that it would be better for NH to lose - but if they lost that gives their opponents 1 more win... thus strengthening their schedule. I also thought it would good for Loyola to beat Crespi-but that gives NH's opponents 1 more win. If the Celts win - Amat gets +1 and NH doesn't.

Projected opponents records at the seasons end should be about like the following- give or take a game or two(barring any crazy upsets)..

BA (55-44) keeping in mind - Dominguez only played 9 games and it would have helped Amat if the Dons played a patsie like University or Gardena along the way.... oops!... did I say that out loud? Sorry)
FV (52-48)
LA (50-50)
NH (56-44)

Even if Newport Harbors opponents somehow end up with more wins, the best they could do is tie Amat in the given criteria. Then it is in the committees hands and becomes more subjective. And Amat wins the subjective battle too. In Amat's favor is the win over Bonnies, better "losses" (yes-there is such a thing. losses to Crespi & ND is better than a loss to Mira Costa - who'd good - but in lower division and who lost to Loyola and Esperanza). Knowing CIF - tradition, name recognition, fan base (read $$$) also could play a part in breaking ties. The only things really hurting Amat is the fact that they were the At-Large team last year. And any private school backlash - either real or imaginary. But the CIF's Football Advisory Board is heavily involved - and they have Amat at #7 (probably dropping behind dana Hills to #8) with Newport Harbor out of the Top 10. So that says what they think to this point. I don't see Newport Harbor wins over Marina and Esperanza (if it happens) as being performances that would cause any upward movement and they'd have to leap frog Mater Dei & St John Bosco to get into the Top 10.(who have the same 5-4 record and play each other in a big finale) . FYI - Amat gets in before SJB based on the victories over St Bonnies and Loyola - common opponents.

Confused yet?

All that being said, with CIF you just never know. It's like officials bad calls. You never want to put yourself in a position that it matters. Just win Friday at home and there is nothing to worry about. That's the only way to really control your destiny.


32 Comments

ALL BLUE said:

seven-duece,
You just won the AMAT lotto!
I enjoy your love for the sport and AMAT! So I would like to extend an invitation to join us at tailgate row, to see if we can take your AMAT experience to the next level!
Here's the deal, be at Amat at 5pm at the tailgate area in right field foul area (baseball field), we are in the southwest corner. Ask for the MAYOR, and say your here for the tri-tip and ribs!
Hope to see you there! If you are wondering what I am doing up at this hour, the answer is- preparing the meat for the party. What a long glorious day ahead!!!

ON BLUE!!!

sevenduece said:

Joe Amat,
you are correct. i am not an alum nor do i have a child, or relative for that matter who attends bishop amat. i am simply a high school football fan who lives in the san gabriel valley and attended every game bishop amat played last year. this is my second year following the team and i can't tell you what a delight it has been. i've also had the pleasure of watching other san gabriel valley football on several thursday and/or saturday evenings as well. i've enjoyed it all. i simply feel the electricity is more prevalent at bishop amat games. but there is good football being played here in the sgv. so, no, i am not an alum nor do i have a child at bishop amat, but i'd be proud to claim either. good luck tomorrow night. i will be there.

Aaron said:

KH,

Amat is 2-0 all time against Bonita, they played Bonita way back when Bonita had Allen Carter.

AMAT 73 Author Profile Page said:

Joe,
I seem to recall 72 being from the west SGV maybe a Pasadena or Muir fan , not real sure but can recall something to that effect.

kh said:

joe amat.any chance amat playing bonita next year in preseason. have they ever played agaist each other ,,we have a good bunch of top jr. returning next season. and what the over all win loss record if they have ever play eacgh other
thanks kh

Joe Amat Author Profile Page said:

xyz,

Don't think so. 72 came on here a while ago - before Darien was an impact player. I thought I remembered him being from out of the area with no affiliation with Amat. I could be wrong - but I like hearing his takes because he's "unattached" so to speak (if I remembered right) and usually gives a pretty honest opinion.

xyz said:

Reading comments from Seven Deuce makes me believe he is Darian Johnsons Father. He props him indirectly. Read between the lines.

Joe Amat Author Profile Page said:

sevenduece,

If I remember - you are not an alum nor have kids at the school. Did I remember that right?

sevenduece said:

i am truly excited about this week's game vs notre dame. the intensity should be at an all time high. if i'm not mistaken, this will be bishop amat's third time facing such an offense (schematically) this year. there are great coaches on both sides, but bishop amat's need to win, home field prowess, familiarity with the offense notre dame runs, and its propensity for winning big games makes me feel that bishop amat will win the game. there backs are absolutely against the wall, and that sense of urgency was not evident last friday night. i imagine it will be this friday. should be a great game with amat winning. see you all friday.

AMAT 73 Author Profile Page said:

Play to win,
That is what I am counting on. I wrote on another thread that this week our back are against the wall similar to Crespi last week. You could say that our playoffs begin this week and since we are fortunate enough to have the game on our field better for us. The fact that we are unbeaten at home for the past 2 seasons and the ball just seems to bounce our way at home to me add up to a win . We are going to need a lot of input from Daylon on this one and I am sure he will be up to the task schooling the D-backs on how to stop the air attack of ND .

Play to Win said:

That is great thinking there 73 but this ND team is not 2-0 in league for nothing. They blew out Loyola and Amat just squeeked by Loyola. Styles make fights I know so lets hope Amat brings it moreso then what they did vs. Loyola. Anything is possible, like Crespi having their backs to the wall last friday vs Amat, Crespi was in a die situation and they came thru. Much is the same for Amat you lose and you are done at-large or not your done. Truth hurts but Amat must win at home this friday. I am hoping for another showing like the St. Bonadventure game, Amat came out that nite with the attitude and swagger of "not in our house"..hope they bring that this friday against the Golden Knights.

AMAT 73 Author Profile Page said:

SGV FOOTBALL,
I don't know where you get that impression from . Yes there is a lot of speculation of if this happens or that happens concerning playoffs but let me put in plain English. AMAT WILL WIN ON FRIDAY .WE WILL NOT LET ND COME INTO OUR HOUSE AND BEAT US . We will take the choosing out of the hands of coins or CIF and flat out WIN. How's that sound to you , better.

Joe Amat Author Profile Page said:

It can be done,

The year you're speaking of was 05-06 and Amat did beat MD and Loyola but were inconsistent (as you said) and dropped games they shouldn't have. They ended in a 3-way tie for 3rd with Loyola and Santa Margarita. Loyola entered as a 3rd place team (and became the eventual champion), Santa Margarita was 4th and Amat was out of the hunt. CIF only allows leagues to submit ONE team for At-Large consideration - so Santa MArgarita was the candidate with a 5-5 record. Amat was never even under consideration by the CIF Committe efor them to "overlook" because they couldn't be - even at 6-4 and a better record than SM. Santa Margarita was chosen (and LB Wilson was the automatic 4th place rep from the 7-team Moore league at 3-7)

So the point is it wasn't the CIF Committee that decided against Amat... they never got in front of the committee due to the coin-flip.As I said above... "All that being said, with CIF you just never know. It's like officials bad calls. You never want to put yourself in a position that it matters. Just win Friday at home and there is nothing to worry about. That's the only way to really control your destiny."

It can be done said:

There was that year Amat had a pretty good year and did not get in the CIF. With wins that year over Loyola(the eventual champs that season) and Mater Dei It did not matter they were looked over and LB wilson I believe got the Bid. Amat must not count on that bid coming their way as automatic. Take care of your own business vs Notre Dame and win your way in the CIF. All the searios are great depending on the Sunset league and all that mess..Bottom line is, Amat Take care of your own business Friday with a win and let the chips fall where they fall. Do not count on help elsewhere, ask that above Amat team on how they got bumped that year..They did not take care of business on games they should have won. Nobodys fault but your own if you cannot finish strong.

please said:

SGV FOOTBALL,
I'll say it for you. AMAT WILL WIN AGAINST NOTRE DAME FRIDAY NIGHT! We will be prepared, ready, and most importantly, HUNGRY! Notre Dame goes down. Amat STILL shines!

smallcitymc said:

SGV FOOTBALL,

It's hard for me to decipher your blog since sarcasm runs rampant around here. In any case, I don't care for arrogant people, but i do like positive people. I can't say whether Amat will win or not, but I do believe they have an excellent shot... so excuse me while I tuck my tail away...

smallcitymc said:

SGV FOOTBALL,

It's hard for me to decipher your blog since sarcasm runs rampant around here. In any case, I don't care for arrogant people, but i do like positive people. I can't say whether Amat will win or not, but I do believe they have an excellent shot... so excuse me while I tuck my tail away...

Joe Amat Author Profile Page said:

SGV FOOTBALL,

You can go back as far as you want in the blog and you'll not find a single prediction from me. Since it's inception I have said that any team on our schedule could beat us. That's why we schedule preleague the way we do. It makes no sense to schedule otherwise. I've also said there are no surprises in the Serra League. That's what makes playing at this level special. No pushovers .. ever. You better have a preseason that gets you ready. So to say Friday could go either way is consistent with everything I've written. Others may make predictions - not me. But here is *exactly* what I wrote before the St Bonaventure game.. and it pretty much goes for this week too. Except our "young guys" better have grown up by now.

"All I know is that the kids are working hard and practicing with a purpose, so they should be prepared. We'll see what that translates into. The young guys are going to find out how much we've grown up so far."

"Teams need to practice in proportion to your aspirations."

"When a program aspires to compete at this level - they better practice that way. When a program aspires to live up to a storied tradition - they better practice that way. When a program aspires to someday play in December - they better practice that way."

"And when they do that it builds the kind of habits necessary to be successful - in anything they do."

COChargerfan said:

Joe Amat...sounds like you are admitting that Big Lou is a genius for scheduling Gardena and University!!! Looks like Amat needs to "strengthen" their schedule by adding Paraclete or maybe Azusa...funny that the wild card rules go counter to the only play the best in the state argument.

SGV FOOTBALL said:

Whats ups ladies and gentleman,

Is it me or does it sound like the Amat fans are preparing for a loss to ND. This is not the way to go about it. When you guys were playing ST Bonnies you had all the Amat fans saying you guys were going to win. Whats the difference now??? BA has a good shot at beating ND this year, by their standards ND is having a down season this year. Why can't you guys have the same confidence like you had against St.Bonnies. I like arrogant people that can back up their teams, not the ones that play tough all year and when the big dog comes to play, they stick their tail between their legs. These are not he BA fans we are accustomed too. I think I will have to take my bet off of BA and switch it to ND!

AMAT 73 Author Profile Page said:

Don,
The cords will be at the bottom of the box with the lights .Reason, that is where I found mine last year.

Bleeds Blue and Gold Author Profile Page said:

Let's just beat Notre Dame and take it from there. No way in hell would they leave out of the playoffs in ANY scenario.

Joe Amat Author Profile Page said:

smallcitymc

On Saturday afternoon I wrote,

"...In a 4 team league there is no room for slippage, no margin of error and a bunch of scenarios. Amat, ND, & Crespi could all be 2-1. ND could be 3-0, & Crespi 2-1 and Amat 1-2, OR ND could be 3-0 with Amat/Crespi AND Loyola all at 1-2. That's a mess. That means one of those teams is in 4th and league can only submit ONE team for at-large consideration... so the 4th place team is S.O.L...."

http://www.insidesocal.com/tribpreps/2009/11/friday-morning-6.html#comment-2424704

I wrote it here before.. Ben Bolch goes to Joe Amat for HIS research!

...and little barracuda... that janitor from the office may have been sniffing too much Pine Sol. ["my neighbors brother said..." - that's always REAL accurate info! Hilarious.. and yes - I said THTA out loud!]
The reality is that CIF was counting their blessings when #1 in the nation LB Poly pulled out a last minute win over the at-large Lancers last season. If anything that garnered even more respect from the office. (as if the Serra League needs any more respect!) In fact - in the Playoff Handbook it is not actually specified that the #1 seed gets the At-Large Team, although that is the practice quite often. If the Lancers happen to be the At-Large entrant - look for them to get one of the other seeds... just in case.

Joe Amat Author Profile Page said:

73 & "Not All There",

A win and a 3 way tie for first and the committee doesn't even have to meet Saturday as far as Amat's involvement is concerned - it's a done deal. That would be interesting and could be the difference between a #4 seed and an At-Large berth - how 'bout that?!?

If Amat is 9-1 and Serra League Champs with a win over Bonnies and ND - good shot at leapfrogging Lakewood into the #4 spot - if they lose the flip and go to 3rd they're an At-Large and looking at upsetting Edison in Round 1.

The scary one is if Notre Dame is fortunate on Friday AND Loyola upsets Crespi - it's a 3 way ties for 2nd - and someone in that group is staying home. So winning is paramount for that reason alone.

My Friend - I know we lose people with that paragraph stuff, but some stick with us.

MTC - good to see you in here and Don, here's a hint...

I'm positive you'll find it in the very last place you look!

Undercover Barracuda said:

Okay here is what I heard about the Pac 5 discussions. My neighbors brother works for CIF SS in Los Alamitos, and he was saying that they will most likely consider Newport Harbor, Fountain Valley or Los Alamitos just because of how strong Edison is this year. He also said they gave Bishop a shot last year and look what happened first round and out. Oppps did I say that out loud. So they will most likly over look Bishop and go with an OC team this year. Good try Joe Amat but no one is buying it.

Not all there said: said:

When has "sense" and the CIF ever met in the same discussion?

You are right - it makes no sense - but it is the system in place. Amat needs their opponents to win (except ND of course) and as many aof the Sunset league opponents as possible to lose.

Remember last year this is how Amat got in to the playoffs. Sunset had a 5-way tie for first -two 1st place teamm did not make the playoffs from that league.

The real obnoxious part is the Moore league - when Cabrillo high opened they made it a 7 team league. Cabrillo is 0-for-life in football - never won a game - yet the league still gets the extra team in the playoffs.

Now whtat makes no sense

smallcitymc said:

Joe,

Here is a small article in Sunday's L.A. Times concerning the upcoming Amat/ND game written by L. A. Times' Ben Bloch:

"Encino Crespi's 38-25 upset of No. 10 La Puente Bishop Amat sets up a few intriguing scenarios going into the final week of Serra League play.

Here's one Crespi is hoping to avoid: If the Celts lose to Los Angeles Loyola and Sherman Oaks Notre Dame beats Bishop Amat, there would be a three-way tie for second place among Crespi, Loyola and Bishop Amat, with coin flips deciding the league's second guaranteed playoff entrant.

Even if Crespi beats Loyola, the Celts could be left out of the playoffs if Bishop Amat defeats Notre Dame, forcing a three-way tie for the league title. Because there are only two guaranteed playoff spots from the four-team league, one of the league champions could be left out, barring a wild-card berth.

'We could go 2-1 in league and lose to Notre Dame on a 52-yard field goal with no time left and miss the playoffs,' Crespi Coach Jeremiah Ross lamented."

This is even more complicated than I thought. I was under the assumption that if Amat won, they would be going to the playoffs. That apparently is not the case. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it appears that Bloch doesn't even believe the wild-card will come from the Serra.

I don't disagree with your reasoning, as you've laid it pretty good. I'm just wondering what's going on in the heads of the CIF committee that makes these decisions.

AMAT 73 Author Profile Page said:

Not all there,
I think it is kind of hard to imagine leaving anyone if we all finish at 2-1 . Coin flip for seeding yes but for entry to the playoffs make no sense at all.

Mike the Clone said:

Don.......

Funny stuff.

I wouldn't be surprised if Joe comes back and tells you:

"It's on the top shelf just above the rest of the Christmas stuff and right where you left it last year"

My best to you both my old friends.

I AM OUT!

Mike the Clone

Not all there said:

A win still doesn't gaurantee anything......

An Amat win with a Crespi win make Amat, ND, and Crespi all 2-1 and each having beat the other - 3-way tie for 1st. Coin flip - Amat loses flip and CAN STILL BE OUT OF THE PLAYOFFs at 9-1. The criteria is very clear for selecting the wild card and they will not get it due to opponent strength of schedule.

The real kikcer here is this......Amat would have been better off having LOST more preseason games - thus giving their opponents more wins. Opponent record counts for 2 points - your record only counts for 1 point. It is not right - but it is the system in place.

My Pal Joey said:


Wait a darn minute Fred...now WTH are you doing? I've tried to be nice to you but you've gone toooooo far... the next thing you know you'll actually encourage bloggers to write more than two sentences....write paragraphs with an original main point and two or three supportive points reinforcing the original point...IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT!!!! are you prepared for entries without the words "kcus" and "ecafkcid" in them....maybe you need to see a doctor or get a Swine Flu shot...this is sheer absurdity and utter nonsense!!! What are you telling your loyal one sentence bloggers? Fred you are a man without a soul...lol.

My Pal Joey...that was truely inspiring....any "chance" others follow suit?

Don said:

Joe,

Robledo says here you know everything.


Where did I put the extension cords for my Christmas lights?

Thanks,


Don

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Fred Robledo

Fred Robledo is the Prep Sports Editor for the San Gabriel Valley Tribune. E-mail me your opinions, story ideas or tips to fred.robledo@sgvn.com.

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This page contains a single entry by Fred Robledo published on November 9, 2009 11:31 AM.

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ALL BLUE on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: seven-duece, You just won the AMAT lotto! I enjoy your love for the sp ...

sevenduece on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: Joe Amat, you are correct. i am not an alum nor do i have a child, o ...

Aaron on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: KH, Amat is 2-0 all time against Bonita, they played Bonita way back ...

AMAT 73 on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: Joe, I seem to recall 72 being from the west SGV maybe a Pasadena or M ...

kh on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: joe amat.any chance amat playing bonita next year in preseason. have t ...

Joe Amat on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: xyz, Don't think so. 72 came on here a while ago - before Darien was ...

xyz on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: Reading comments from Seven Deuce makes me believe he is Darian Johnso ...

Joe Amat on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: sevenduece, If I remember - you are not an alum nor have kids at the ...

sevenduece on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: i am truly excited about this week's game vs notre dame. the intensit ...

AMAT 73 on Know-everything blogger Joe Amat gives his take on Bishop Amat's playoff chances: Play to win, That is what I am counting on. I wrote on another thread ...

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