Breaking it down: If Bishop Amat loses, they will probably need help to make the playoffs
I have gone through most of the playoff scenarios involving Bishop Amat using the tiebreaker system below, figuring the only teams with a chance of earning the Pac-5 at-large berth are the third place team from the Serra, or the fourth-place team from the Sunset League. Interestingly enough, what we don't know and won't know until Sunday is who the CIF advisory committee determines is a stronger league, thus earning a huge point. "If we told you that, it would take away all the fun," CIF-SS spokesperson Thom Simmons joked. Let's take the worst case scenario, a Bishop Amat loss, leaving them 8-2 and in third. I will also assume the fourth place team in the Sunset lost, since that's the only way they could fall to fourth. Here is how they stack up against the competition.
Bishop Amat (8-2) vs. Fountain Valley (8-2)
CIF's tiebreaker for wild-cards is as follows
(a) Head-to-head competition of teams under consideration (4 points) -- Wash, no points
(b) Overall strength of the league from which the team is entered (1 point) -- ?
(c) Overall win-loss record (1 point) -- Wash, no points
(d) Strength against common opponents (1 point), Wash, no points.
(e) Strength of schedule (2 points, using overall win-loss record of opponents), Advantage Bishop Amat, two points.
Bishop Amat leads 2-0
Bishop Amat (8-2) vs. Newport Harbor (6-4)
CIF's tiebreaker for wild-cards is as follows
(a) Head-to-head competition of teams under consideration (4 points) -- Wash, no points
(b) Overall strength of the league from which the team is entered (1 point) -- ?
(c) Overall win-loss record (1 point) -- Advantage Amat, 1 point
(d) Strength against common opponents (1 point), Wash, no points.
(e) Strength of schedule (2 points, using overall win-loss record of opponents), Advantage Newpot Harbor, two points.
Newport Harbor leads 2-1 (schedule strength determining factor)
Bishop Amat (8-2) vs. Los Alamitos (7-3)
CIF's tiebreaker for wild-cards is as follows
(a) Head-to-head competition of teams under consideration (4 points) -- Wash, no points
(b) Overall strength of the league from which the team is entered (1 point) -- ?
(c) Overall win-loss record (1 point) -- Advantage Amat, 1 point
(d) Strength against common opponents (1 point), Wash, no points.
(e) Strength of schedule (2 points, using overall win-loss record of opponents), Advantage Los Alamitos, two points.
Los Alamitos leads 2-1 (schedule strength determining factor)
FINALLY: If Bishop Amat loses, they trail by a point to Los Alamitos and Newport Harbor.Two things have to happen for the Lancers to advance. First, the CIF Advisory committee must determine that the Serra is a stronger league than the Sunset, which would give the Lancers the point they need to finish in a 2-2 tie with Los Alamitos and Newport Harbor. In the event of a tie on points, a four person at-large committee will gather together and use their best judgment when determining who gets the at-large berth. There are other scenarios that come into play, but at the end of the day, people, not point totals or computers, will probably decide who gets in. Also, Joe Amat was right about strength of schedule. If Bishop Amat had scheduled and defeated Azusa, San Dimas and Baldwin Park, who have a combined record of 24-3, it would have been more beneficial than defeating Diamond Ranch (3-6), West Covina (5-4) and Damien (4-5), whose combined record is the reason the Lancers lose the tiebreakers to Los Alamitos and Newport Harbor. Silly isn't it, but it's the truth.
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Can not believe Google thinks this is news!
Mr. Guru, Mr. Guru can you come out to play?
The person I am REALLY waiting to weigh in: Mr. SGV Scouting/'GURU'.
Before the season he LED the charge on how Amat was gonna be 'lucky' to win THREE games. Can't wait to read the 'analysis' from the SO CALLED 'EXPERT'.
Or will we be 'treated' to the USUAL 'GURU' stonewall?
My point is that your moral to the story is not always true but on a case by case basis. If "...the moral of the story is for a team to play a patsie who, in turn, also plays patsies..." I'm sure you wouldn't consider the schedules of Mira Costa, Mission Viejo, Newport Harbor SJB, Valencia, Chaminade, St Francis, Amat, ND, & Crespi. Look them up. They all played tough schedules too. Look them up.
The bottom line is you need to play teams that test you and make you better, That's how you become the best you can be and be playing your best at the end of the season. If you're doing that AND playing in a tough division that tests you - you're going to need it.
I happen to think THAT is the goal - to become your best - not to schedule so you pad your record to get invited to some tournament.
Thanks for the good wishes.
Joe Amat...Loyola's position has nothing to do with their playing patsies or non-patsies but, instead, has everything to do with their opponents win-loss records...so the moral of the story is for a team to play a patsie who, in turn, also plays patsies...not my theory but, instead is the way to get er' done per the CIF Rules. Sincerely hoping that the Amat boys make their own luck tonight.
Injured ND,
At this point in the season, in Week 10, everyone is a little beat up. Amat should expect to take ND's best shot.
As to the article, the writers breakdown of playoff spots is inaccurate. An Amat win AND a Crespi loss makes Amat(2-1) the #1 rep, ND(2-1) the #2 rep (decided by head to head) and Loyola #3 (also decided by head-to-head).
Amazingly - this is the WORST scenario for the Sunset league because even though they have the worst overall record Loyola's opponents have the best overall record by a lot. (thus disproving COChargerfan's theory on scheduling patsies with good records. Loyola's tough schedule of Mira Costa, Mission Viejo, Newport Harbor SJB, Valencia, Chaminade, St Francis, Amat, ND, & Crespi will help them)
http://www.dailynews.com/preps/ci_13765944
Parent,
Even if Amat wins, a Crespi win creates a 3-way tie at 2-1 for two spots. There could be a coin-flip and At-Large possibilities either way. Can you imagine that? 9-1 and flipping a coin to end up fighting for an At-Large?
If we had played a weaker schedule, the schedule may be stronger under the CIF formula (which is ridiculous BTW) But we wouldn't be stronger - and that's what matters.
..and FYI - there was NEVER a time when Amat wouldn't play any of the locals.
Agree - have a GREAT weekend and here's to practicing on Thanksgiving (which also means a first round win!)
Freddie,
I wouldn't be so quick to give Los Al the edge on Strength of Schedule. As of today they have a couple game advantage. But by playing better teams,
Amat does have a chance to pick up some ground with schools that are expected to WIN their final game of league - as opposed to playing weaker teams that should LOSE that game.
Amat opponents could win 6-8 games this Friday, adding to the Strength of Schedule argument. This is how it "breaksdown"... even further (barring any major upsets)
Dominguez 3-5 toss up vs 5-4 Lynwood
West Covina 5-4 will beat 2-7 Nogales = 6-4
Damien 4-5 will beat Chino = 5-5
St. Bonaventure 8-1 will beat 3-6 Dos Pueblos = 9-1
Diamond Ranch 3-6 will beat 2-7 Wilson = 4-6
St. Paul 3-6 will lose to 6-3 Alemany = 4-6
Alemany 6-3 will beat the Slime = 7-3
Loyola 3-6 toss up vs 5-4 Crespi*
Crespi 5-4 toss up vs Loyola*
Notre Dame 8-1 toss up vs 8-1 Lancers*
*Reality is someone wins/someone loses- either way doesn't change Amat's opponents records
Amat's opponents records today : 48-41
Amat's opponents projected records : 54 - 44 If Dominguez looses & Amat wins
if Dominguez also wins = 55-44
Ironically - an Amat LOSS gives their OPPONENTS one more WIN.. could be 56-44 which could be the difference!?!?!
The truth of the matter is if BOTH Los Al & Newport Harbor win, or if BOTH lose - they'll be tied and must flip for 4th. The only wuestion is if they win and Fountain Valley is included in the mix.
Mayfair 4-5, will lose to 8-1 Norwalk = 4-6
Fremont 0-9 should lose to 3-6 Manuel Arts = 0-10
LB Wilson 6-3 should lose to 8-1 Lakewood = 14-4
La Habra 8-1 toss up AT 8-1 Fullerton = ?
Narbonne 5-4 should beat 3-6 Banning? = 6-4
Edison 9-0 will beat Marina = 10-0
Marina 1-8 will lose to Edison = 1-9
Esperanza 4-5 should lose to Newport Harbor 4-6
Fountain Valley 8-1 let's say they beat Los Al (worse case scenario - gives a Los Al opponent 1 more win) 9-1
Newport Harbor 5-4 should beat Esperanza 6-4
Los Al's opponents records today : 50 - 40
Los Al's opponents projected records ; 54 - 44 with one toss up. Let's say 55-44 worse case scenario... barring any huge upsets)
You might want to double check the math - I swore off calculators. But this does give some people some "Games to Watch" and like the Wld Card in baseball - creates interest in games we might not care about.
Fullerton Go !
Dominguez Fight !
Amat Win !
All this stuff regarding if Amat gets left out is absurd. It sounds as though everyone is ALREADY counting on a loss to ND! I do agree that even w/a 8-2 record Amat should get in. This talk about what if Amat played SD, Azusa, and BP would look good now, but what if Amat lost another game, then it wouldn't even be a topic.
ALL the other top SGV top teams should NOW schedule Amat to make EVERY week feel like the playoffs. When Amat was down, and SH, CO, and LA were winning titles Amat really didnt want to play them. NOW it looks like its the other way around, now that Amat has the coaching back, the kids are returning.
Lets have a GREAT weekend of High School football here in the EAST VALLEY, and remember there is NOTHING like having practice Thanksgiving weekend!
COChargerfan,
Read what you wrote and you answered your own question. IF Fountain Valley loses you wrote:
"...then both FV and LA will be 3-2 in league and tied for second ..."
then later you wrote:
"...assuming that Newport Harbor beats Esperanza, they will be 3-2 in league ..."
That scenario makes all three teams tied at 3-2 with only two automatic spots behind Edison... meaning the coin-flip can put anyone of them in 4th - and eligible for the At-Large berth.
Wait a minute…FV and Los Alamitos play each other so they both can’t suffer a loss. If FV wins, then they’ll be 4-1 in League for outright second place and will get an automatic berth. If they lose, then both FV and LA will be 3-2 in league and tied for second so both will be in (with Edison) as the Sunset gets three automatic berths. So, if LA wins, only Newport Harbor is in a wild card scenario. Now, if LA loses they will be 2-3 in league and assuming that Newport Harbor beats Esperanza, they will be 3-2 in league so NH will be the 3rd place team who gets the automatic entry…leaving LA as the wild card team. The bottom line is that whether they win or lose, FV is already in the playoffs.
Amat- "why is this so hard?"
CIF - "that's what she said"
=]
THEY ARE GOING DOWN. THEY SUCK. WERD UP.
Yes ignorant one
Even if BA loses they have and always will be the #1 representative of San Gabriel Valley football. They have been doing so for the past 30 years. Why do you think they get so much press? Why is such a simple concept so difficult to grasp for some?
Bishop is goin to lose then... sucks...
I want to congratulate the entire Bishop Amat team, coaching staff, and boosters!
NO ONE would have guessed at the beginning of this season, that Amat would be playing for a share of the Serra this season.
Win or lose this Friday, Team Amat has already surpassed ALL expectations. You all have brought pride to the San Gabriel Valley by reaching out and rising to the challenge without fear and with no reserve.
YOU ALL ARE CHAMPIONS IN THE EYES OF THE AMAT ALUMNI!!!!!!
YOU SEASON HAS ALREADY BEEN ABSOLUTELY PERFECT!!!
MIGHTY ARE THE MEN THAT WEAR THE BLUE AND GOLD!!!