Bracketology: The Scouting Guru breaks down the playoff picture in Southeast and Mid-Valley
The Scouting Guru has been all over the San Gabriel Valley and beyond, and like always, he's offered to share his thoughts, free of charge. Don't hate, enjoy it for what it's worth, which is one man's opinion on the talent and teams in the San Gabriel Valley and surrounding areas.
Guru Says: Well, this is my favorite time of year. We are watching tons of film for 2010 prospects. But more than that, it's close to playoff time - which means it's time for a little bracketology for the playoffs. Let's dive into it.
First, what needs to be understood is the protocol directly from the CIF-SS Handbook that is online at cifss.org. "The initial step is to designate four teams (maximum) as seeds, with No. 1 and No. 4 placed in the top bracket, and No. 2 and 3 in the bottom bracket (see Diagram 1). An exception to this procedure would be if seeds in the same half of the bracket are from the same league......Is it possible to designate more than four seeds? The task would be virtually impossible on two counts. Attempting to delineate which team is the No. 7 seed, as opposed to No. 8, or No. 12 rather than No. 13, would result in 25 different answers by 25 different people. Additionally, an attempt at a "true seed" would be in opposition to the CIF-SS Constitution and By-laws, which specify a league's designated No. 1 entry shall meet a No. 3 entry, and a No. 2 shall meet another No. 2, where the draw provides for same in the opening round."
So now that you have that figured out...let's take a look at the two Divisions in the East San Gabriel Valley and see what just might happen.
SOUTHEAST
Almont -- Schurr takes on San Gabriel for the league championship Friday night. Winner gets a home game for the first round. Looks like Bell Gardens will make the playoffs safely.
Del Rio -- For what seems like the 50th year in a row (just kidding of course) California will be playing Santa Fe for the league championship Friday night. What's a bit different is that Santa Fe has defeated San Clemente but lost to La Serna? Right now, California is in first place coming into the game going undefeated in league play. La Serna looks like their in prime position for the other playoff spot from the league if they can defeat El Rancho Thursday night.
Miramonte - One thing seems certain, Charter Oak will win out in the league and will garner the top-seed in the Division. It also seems a bit certain that Diamond Ranch will be the second place team from the league (if they defeat Los Altos this Friday night) and it looks as if Bonita will be the third place team from the league. No drama here if everything goes to hoyle these next two weeks.
Pacific -- Now it gets very interesting a bit confusing for the average fan. First off, Burbank is ranked third in the latest CIF Poll that was released on Monday. If they win out the next two weeks (including a big game against Burroughs next Friday night), they will hold on to their spot as league champs and will be the three seed in the division. Crescenta Valley is ranked fourth and if they run the table this week (including a huge game against Burroughs this Friday night) they will garner the four seed in the Division. One thing that is very interesting is that Burroughs is tied with Burbank for first place in the division. They can cause a seismic eruption in the bracket process if they run the table and win league. Remember, Burroughs is ranked 10th in the latest CIF poll. The other drama being played out is the battle for the final playoff spot in the league. If all goes to hoyle, Muir and Pasadena will not only play for bragging rights to the city of Pasadena next Friday night at the Rose Bowl but they will also play for the final automatic spot in the playoffs.
San Antonio -- Well, it's pretty easy. If South Hills runs the table the next two weeks they not only win league, but they will also will garner the second seed in the division. If SH runs the table - that means West Covina finishes second and Rowland will finish third (that is if Rowland defeats Nogales this Friday night). It all seems cut and try if South Hills does its job. But Husky fans remember that all SH had to do last year was win West Covina and they would have had a high seed and a home game in the first round. And you all know what happened that night?
Now that you have been explained what's going on in the league's, you can see that there is a lot that has to be determined. But for argument sake, let's say that these are the seeds that play out.
1) Charter Oak
2) South Hills
3) Burbank
4) Cresecenta Valley
That means that there are two teams from the same league that are seeded. That just means you have to jumble brackets - which means someone might be unhappy. Well, here is what we have projected going into Friday night....
UPPER BRACKET
(1) Charter Oak (Miramonte 1)
La Serna (Del Rio 3)
(Winner of Schurr v. San Gabriel) (Almont 1)
Burbank Burroughs (Pacific 3)
(Winner of Cal vs. Santa Fe) (Del Rio 1)
Bell Gardens (Almont 3)
(4) Crescenta Valley (Pacific 2)
West Covina (San Antonio 2)
LOWER BRACKET
(3) Burbank (Pacific 1)
Bonita (Miramonte 3)
(Loser of Schurr vs. San Gabriel) (Almont 2)
Rowland (San Antonio 3)
(Loser of California/Santa Fe) (Del Rio 2)
Diamond Ranch (Miramonte 2)
(2) South Hills (San Antonio 1)
(Winner of Pasadena v. Muir) (Pacific 4)
MID VALLEY DIVISION
Mission Valley -- Arroyo looks like there are projected league champs. But there is a three way tie for second between Rosemead, South El Monte and Gabrielino at 2-1. SEM takes on Gabrielino on Friday night with a playoff birth at stake.
Montview -- This league has four births available for the playoffs. Azusa is in control on the league and if they win out, they will be the third seed in the division. Gladstone and La Puente are 3-1 entering the week and they will play each other for second place next Friday night. Workman looks to have the inside track on the fourth and final spot in the division.
Olympic -- Paraclete is control of the league and will play for the league title next Friday night against Valley Christian. If they win, they not win the league, but could also garner the fourth seed in the Division. Look for Valley Christian to be second and Village Christian to be the third place team in the league.
Rio Hondo League -- Looking for the top seed in the Division. This is the team. If the Wildcats run the table the next two weeks, the win the league and garner the top. Temple City, La Canada and San Marino are battling for the second place spot in the league. I'll project Temple City and La Canada making it into the show.
Valle Vista -- Comes down to this. The winner of the San Dimas vs. Baldwin Park game next Friday night not only win the league title, but garners a seed in the Division. Meanwhile there is a three battle for third place in the league between Covina, Pomona and Ganesha. We project Covina being the third place team.
As you can see, it's a mess. But let's project the four seeded teams as the following
1) Monrovia
2) San Dimas
3) Azusa
4) Paraclete
So, this becomes a lot simpler with the protocol that CIF-SS has to follow.....
UPPER BRACKET
(1) Monrovia (Rio Hondo 1)
(Third Place from Mission Valley) (Mission Valley 3)
(Winner of La Puente/Gladstone) (Montview 2)
Baldwin Park (Valle Vista 2)
Arroyo (Mission Valley 1)
(Third Place from Rio Hondo) (Rio Hondo 3)
(4) Paraclete (Olympic 1)
Gladstone/Sierra Vista (Montview 3)
LOWER BRACKET
3) Azusa (Montview 1)
Village Christian (Olympic 3)
(Second Place from Mission Valley) (Mission Valley 2)
Covina (Valle Vista 3)
Valley Christian (Olympic 2)
(Second Place from Rio Hondo) (Rio Hondo 2)
(2) San Dimas (Valle Vista 1)
Workman/Sierra Vista (Montview 4)
Hopefully things will come into light after this weeks games. Have a good week.
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Mr. Guru, Mr. Guru can you come out to play?
The person I am REALLY waiting to weigh in: Mr. SGV Scouting/'GURU'.
Before the season you LED the charge on how Amat was gonna be 'lucky' to win THREE games. Can't wait to read the 'analysis' from the SO CALLED 'EXPERT'.
Or will we be 'treated' to the USUAL 'GURU' stonewall?
Oh and one more thing...did you see that El Rancho beat La Serna last night to take control of the third and final spot from the Del Rio League standings? El Rancho clinches a playoff spot with a win over league winless Whittier next Friday night...
Like a said, a weird night in the Southeast Division...
Bracketology Update -- Friday, November 6, 2009
Well, leave it to Pasadena to throw a wrench to the seeding process. Got to give up to my man man Mike Rutenberg (Asst. Coach for New Mexico State) who called me last night at the game (while I was on baby-sitting duties with my new newphew) who told me after halftime that Burbank was in trouble.
The loss really complicates things big time. As we stand this afternoon, the leader in the Pacific League Standings is none other than....Burbank Burroughs (ranked 10 in this week's poll). Burbank has a 1/2 game lead on Crescenta Valley for second place in the standings. Guess who matchs up tonight at 7:00? That's right Crescenta Valley at Burroughs. CV could move up to third in the poll with a win tonight. A loss and who knows what the latest poll will look like (and guess what...calpreps has Burroughs defeating CV 35-24).
This is what the top-10 poll looked like at the start of the week.
Southeast Division
1. Charter Oak (8-1), 2. South Hills (6-2), 3. Burbank (7-1), 4. Crescenta Valley (6-2), 5. Walnut (6-2), 6. Rowland (7-1), 7. Bell Gardens (6-2), 8. Schurr (6-1-1), 9. Santa Fe (6-2), 10. Burroughs (6-2).
If Walnut losses tonight, they are done for the season and are irrelevant to any playoff talk. So here is what might be the top four team in everything goes to hoyle tonight.
1) Charter Oak
2) South Hills
3) Crescenta Valley
4) Rowland
5) Walnut
Now, according to the CIF-SS Blue Book rules, a third place team CAN NOT BE SEEDED! Right now, with the loss to West Covina, Rowland would be considered the third place team from the San Antonio League. And if Bell Gardens wins tonight and San Gabriel loses, SG would be considered second place in the Almont League standings due to their win over BG. So the fourth seed will either go (as of right now) to either Burbank or Schurr.
If Burbank becomes the fourth seed, all you are doing are flipping Crescenta Valley and Burbank in our original rankings and you are good to go. If Schurr becomes the fourth seed (and it can happen) - we'll draw that up tomorrow morning let you see it for yourself. It's already been a strange week...will things become stranger tonight? We are certain of one thing, since CO has the week off, they will be number one in the final coaches poll that will be released on Monday.
Interesting!!!!
This guru hasn't said a word on Amat since he picke St Bonnies and his last famous words were the DJ was in Hagerty's dog house and Amat was doing nothing as far as helping DJ with a scholarship so he was going to make sure it would happen. Now why would you want this fools take on Amat in the Pac 5 race. The better question is his take on SH in the playoffs since that all he knows and cares about.
Valley is a good team. They mix in some run with a lot of passing. They're big upfront and you can't give them time to pass. Their defense is good. They have a big d-line, who can generate a lot of pressure.
I haven't seen Azusa, but I'm sure you have a good chance. If you're defense can shut them down, you're balanced offense should be able to put up the points.
I want Guru's pac 5 take and how he views Bishop Amat in the mix and how far he thinks they will advance.
SGV SCOUTING,
Do you have AZUSA winning Valley Christian?. How good is Valley?.
Desert Rat -- No problem with your line of thinking. This is a huge week in the Montview League...interested in what happens.
Fan -- No clue yet. These are the most interesting two weeks in the valley in sometime. Let's talk final four after the official pairings are announced.
SGV Scotuing-
I know what you're saying. I was just commenting on the what we should see the #1, #1 and the #1, #2 see in the first round...seeing everything stays the same at the top. For Rovia, I believe I said the bottom part of that pairing would be a MVL vs. OLY matchup, which we resolve the conflict. If you go to the link I posted on my last post, it will take you back to my breakdown and explainations.
so guru any early predictions on who is going to the final four and then win cif?
Desert Rat -- You thinking can't work because if you put Montview #4 at the top of the bracket - that would sent up a same league quarterfinal and the CIF-SS Bylaws prohibit that. It's a good thought though...
sgv scouting sounds like a scam. How can he play both sides of the recruiting process? How can a "Legitimate Company" accept money from colleges for an unbiased evaluation and than accept money from college prospects who are trying to earn a schOlarship? sgv scouting is a scam.
Right now, I will only answer questions as it pertains to the playoff bracketing. Thanks for your concern....
Duroc:
Crutch just thinks he's running the program
Oh yeah tcbruin. Mucho stonewall.
Just to remind ya, Guru:
The track still wants a piece of you!
SGV Scouting,
ANY feedback to sh fb parent's questions?
Or the usual stonewall when the hard questions get asked of you?
One thing to keep in mind, the playoff committee uses the weekly poll for its seeding. My opinion means nothing. Its the people that are voting in the weekly poll that make the difference.
We are using the last released poll that came out on Monday. It should be interesting to see what happens when the last poll comes out on Monday....
Cmon GURU what so special about the pacific league anyways
IF SH wins out they deserve the 2nd seed. But Cmon .....West Covina Definately deserves a 3rd or 4th seed
But Do u really think anyone can touch CO ??
Not this year
would love to see a re-match of SH and WC in the playoffs
The Scouting Guru has been all over the San Gabriel Valley and beyond.
Guru Says: Well, this is my favorite time of year. We are watching tons of film for 2010 prospects. My son has played in the program for the past three years and can't tell you how many empty and false promises have been thrown at these kids about playing Div 1 football.
Question #1 How does guru have time to all over SGV and watch tons of film when he is at South Hills 8-10 hours a day working with SH Football Program? This also includes Saturdays and Sundays.
#2 Is this the same guru who runs up and down along the sidelines during games behind the view of Coach Bogan screaming and yelling at both players and fans? Very colorful language at times
#3 Does the guru truly understand the how NCAA Clearinghouse works in creating false promises and possiblities for students who will never be NCAA cleared or possibly not even graduate from high school. That is the theme over @ South Hills
This makes NO sense!
If you have AZUSA losing, why is it you have your own team losing. Your bracket has AZUSA PROJECTED 8-2, but you also have Workman losing also at 7-3! SOMEBODY is going to Lose next Friday, and it won't be AZUSA! (NON SENSE)! Or Make SENSE!
AZTEC PRIDE!
San Dimas won't get the at-large. The #1 team gets it as long as their is not a scheduling conflict. So flip-flop Rovia and Dimas' 1st round opponent.
I touched on this last week because I made the same error.
It will probably be:
Dimas vs. #3, #5 MVL (Mead/Gab)
Rovia vs. At-large (workman)
http://www.insidesocal.com/tribpreps/2009/10/monrovias-no-1.html#comments
James Heggins has been the Coach at BP the last five seasons so that would be weird, was Crutchfield even hired onto their staff?
One other thing that you have to keep in mind...teams from the same league can't meet until the semifinals. So in each 4 team pod, you have to have four different leagues. CIF-SS Blue Rules state that. So...you really can't have a 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15 format. Just something for you to keep in mind. If you would like a projection of the Pac-5, let me know here...
Fred,
Just got word that Wardell Crutchfield has been running the Baldwin Park program pretty much since he got there. Is this true, and what happened to the old coach?
I got a couple of notes asking about the Central Division. In a phrase...its a real mess. And you have to remember there are 15 automatic placings which means there is one wild card spot available. Right now, it looks like the 4th place team from the Baseline League has the best shot of getting. After that, it would be the 4th place team from the Sierra League.
So if you consider the 4th place team from the Baseline League has your wild card, here is what it might look like as of today...
Top Seeds
1) Colton
2) Rancho Cucamonga
3) Colony
4) Etiwanda
Top bracket
(1) Colton (San Andreas 1)
4th Place Team from Baseline (Baseline 4)
Paloma Valley (Sunbelt 1)
Third Place Team from Sierra (Sierra 3)
Second Place Team from Sierra (Sierra 2)
Third Place Team from San Andreas (San Andreas 3)
Second Place Team from Mt. Baldy (Mt. Baldy 2)
(4) Etiwanda (Baseline 2)
Bottom Bracket
(3) Colony (Mt. Baldy 1)
3rd Place from Sunbelt League (Sunbelt 3)
Damien (Sierra 1)
3rd Place from Baseline League (Baseline 3)
Second Place team from Sunbelt League (Sunbelt 2)
Arroyo Valley/San Bernardino Cajon (San Andreas 2)
(2) Rancho Cucamonga (Baseline 1)
3rd place from Mt. Baldy League
As you can see, a lot has to be determined this week and next weeks poll will go a long way in determining seeds....
If you were using the NCAA tournament formula, you would be right. But we are using the template that is used by the CIF-SS committee that they are bound to use. Download the football handbook at cifss.org and try to formulate your own backet using their formula. You'll come away with something very similar to what we have online.
The Montview would get screwed if this is the case...1st off Azusa would be the #3 overal seed and have to play a team from the Olympic??? 2nd if La Puente/Gladstone finishes 8-2 and 2nd in the league they would have to play the best #2 seed SD/BP even though they would finish in the top 6 of the rankings??? 3rd The #3 probably Gladstone at 7-3 would have to travel to Paraclete to get there teeth kicked in??? 4th the #4 Workman who will probably finish 6-4 a better record than Rosemead(5-5),Covina(5-5),S.El Monte(4-6),La Canada(5-4) and the same record as Valley Christian(6-4) would have to get the #2 overal seed??? while Rosemead(5-5) plays Covina(5-5) in the 1st round...
Workman is going to beat Azusa next week and this is how i see it...
TOP BRACKET
1.Monrovia(10-0 Rio#1)
vs
16.S. El Monte(4-6 Mission#3)
8.La Puente(8-2 Montview#2)
vs
9.Temple City(6-3-1 Rio#2)
6.Baldwin Park(8-2 Valley#2)
vs
11.Gladstone(7-3 Montview#3)
4.Arroyo(8-2 Mission#1)
vs
13.Workman(7-3 Montview#3)
BOTTOM BRACKET
3.Paraclet(7-3 Olympic#1)
vs
14.Covina(5-5 Valley#3)
5.Azusa(8-2 Montview#1)
vs
12.Valley Christian(6-4 Olympic#3)
7.Village Christian(8-2 Olympic#2)
vs
10.Rosemead(5-5 Mission#2)
2.San Dimas(9-1 Valley#1)
vs
15.La Canada(5-4 Rio#3)