Pac-5 Division Prediction: Mission Viejo and Servite are the safe bets; but Amat and Alemany have a shot if they’re at home in the semifinals

The Lancers will need their fans more than ever, especially if they’re fortunate enough to get a home game against Mission Viejo in the semis.

Fred’s explanation: This is the only division where the seeds will likely play out until the end with Mission Viejo over Servite in a undefeated Pac-5 final — the game everyone not in the SGV (and Amat haters) is hoping for. The only chance Bishop Amat has of advancing to play for its sixth championship is if they get Mission Viejo in a home game where they haven’t lost in three years. That’s why Amat needed to lose the second-round coin flip because Mission Viejo lost its coin-flip too, so both will be on the road in the semifinals should they advance. There’s no guarantee the Lancers beat Mater Dei or Long Beach Poly on the road in the second round, but if you’re thinking big picture, the Lancers’ only chance is being at home in the semis, so take the road in the quarters with the hopes of winning the coin flip of all coin flips to get a home game in the semifinals. If that happens, could you imagine the scene at Kiefer should Mission Viejo come to town. Alemany’s road to the semi’s looks pretty good too, but like Amat, they would need to get Servite at home to have a shot in that tiny stadium in Mission Hills, where the hometown refs are unfriendly to visiting teams, and the school unfriendly to the visiting press. I still haven’t forgiven them them for telling us they had no room in their press box only to see several empty seats while we did our work from the visiting stands. Unreal.

Pac-5 Division Predictions
Top Seeds:
1. Mission Viejo (10-0), 2. Servite (10-0), 3. Alemany (9-1), 4. Bishop Amat (9-1).
Unseeded Sleepers: Lakewood, Long Beach Poly, San Clemente, Mater Dei.

Pac-5 Division
Top Bracket

Long Beach Wilson (5-5) at No. 1 Mission Viejo (10-0) — Mission Viejo
Edison (7-3) vs. Santa Margarita (8-2) — Santa Margarita
Mater Dei (6-4) vs. Long Beach Poly (8-2) — Mater Dei
Tesoro at No. 4 Bishop Amat (9-1) — Bishop Amat
Bottom Bracket
Newport Harbor (6-4) at No. 3 Alemany (10-0) — Alemany
San Clemente (8-2) at Lakewood (9-1) — San Clemente
Crespi (7-3) vs. Los Alamitos (8-2) — Crespi
Long Beach Jordan (6-4) vs. Servite (10-0) — Servite

Top Bracket

Mission Viejo over Santa Margarita
Bishop Amat over Mater Dei
Bottom Bracket
Alemany over San Clemente
Servite over Crespi
Mission Viejo over Bishop Amat
Servite over Alemany
Mission Viejo over Servite

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  • Amat vs. Viejo in the SGV would be mass hysteria.

    We’d probably have to get to the game on Wednesday.

  • You guys are clowns!!!

    I love the way Fred, and Aram pick all of the #1 seeds to play against the #2 seeds. You guys really know how to go out on a limb. Btw, Aram I feel you were classless in breaking a would be developing story about Koffler. You must be a real jerk!!

  • FredJ

    Well look at the top seeds, Monrovia, West Covina, Corona Centennial and Mission Viejo? .. At least Monrovia is a No. 2 over No. 1 Azusa. West Covina and Corona are slam dunks, though I have unseeded Bonita in the final. I could have taken Servite over Mission Viejo, but that’s a toss-up game anyways should it happen. I could have gone on a limb and taken Amat to reach the finals and win, but that’s too homerish even for me.

  • Lance R

    Tesoro First.

    The Mission Viejo / Servite matchup is all good but it will not pan out that way, one of them is going to get beat or should I say upset. That will not be the Championship.

    Amat and where they figure in all this?????

    Anyones guess???

    Tesoro First.

  • Amat in the Semis???? Get real

    Amat will not make it to the Semi finals…… trust me. If they get by Tesoro, they will get beat by Poly.

  • FredJ

    If that happens and I’m Amat, I bring in every temporary bleacher I can find…no way you want to take that game out of La Puente.

  • AMAT 73

    Fred J,
    Not too sure on that shoe in for Servite. I caught the Servite vs MD game and Servite looks beatable. Although they are a good team they can be beaten with a good game plan. It is all up in the air because anyone who knows PAC-5 football knows it’s any teams ball game in the playoffs. The hot team can walk away with it all. Hey semi’s who says Poly will get past MD . That game is not a lock by any means for Poly.

  • space

    At the semifinal level if by chance they get there, is Kiefer big enough? Or will they have to go to Mt. Sac or Cerritos?

  • 12th man

    I think Servite mite have problems with Alemany in the semis..If BA can reach the semis look for an upset, the crowd atmosphere will prove to be the difference…The bus ride alone heading into La Puente is enough to rattle most teams!~ Never the less..this is Pac 5 football at its finest..Anything could happen on any given Friday!~

  • 12th man

    The only sure bet in all of these playoffs is Corona Centennial!! If we were in Vegas the odds would be 10 to 1 !!

  • #4 Seed

    IF Amat does anything in the playoffs it’s only fitting that it should go through MD/Poly and then the #1 ranked team. It’s great to get to the championship any year but it means something completely different if they’re able to claw their way out of this bracket. Can’t help but hope for Poly (per ’98 and ’08) assuming Amat handles business with Tesoro.

  • 12th man

    Mater Dei:

    187.7 Passing Yards Per Game
    133.3 Rushing Yards Per Game
    38.8 Tackles Per Game
    1.8 Sacks Per Game
    28.3 Points Per Game
    117 Passing Comp

    Long Beach Poly

    181.4 Passing Yards Per Game
    118.0 Rushing Yards Per Game
    58.1 Tackles Per Game
    3.6 Sacks Per Game
    34.2 Points Per Game
    91Passing Comp

    These teams are evenly matched up..Theres no lock or clear cut favorite! Whoever wins the trenches wins the game!!

  • 12th man

    The Pac 5!!!! Where anything can happen!!!
    Never over look the UNDERDOG!!

    Here’s the thing that makes life so interesting: The Theory of Evolution claims that “only the strong shall survive”. Maybe so, maybe so. But the Theory of Competition says “just because they’re the strong doesn’t mean they can’t get their asses kicked”. That’s right. See, what every long shot come from behind underdog will tell you is this: The other guy may in fact be the favorite, the odds may be turned against you. Fair enough… But what the odds don’t know is this isn’t a math test. This is a completely different kind of test. One where passion has a funny way of trumping logic. So before you step up to the starting line, before the whistle blows and the clock starts ticking, just remember: out here, the results don’t always add up. No matter what the stats may say and the experts may think and the commentators may have predicted, when the GAME starts, all bets are off. Don’t be surprised if someone decides to flip the script and take a pass on yelling “Uncle”. And then suddenly, as the old saying goes, “We got ourselves a game”

  • cif office

    re: “freds explanation”….Bishop Alemany and their road to the seni-finals, where the hometown refs are unfriendly to the visiting team, what are you inferring robledo? the handshake between the officials and the team coaches wasn’t warm and genuine? did the pre-game meeting with the head coaches get pizzy?…….Seriously, in third round games we use officials from associations outside of the 2 competing teams areas, have for many years, there is a world of information you can acquire if you read or just ask questions and listen, instead of whining about “hometown refs/officials”.To the office it’s very unprofessional, we review our old and overweight/out of shape guys every year, while we wait for their dues check to clear the bank and only the oldest, scratch my back I’ll scratch yours officials are hand-picked to work playoffs games, as a rule of thumb you won’t see anyone under 60, not at least semi-obese, wearing coke bottle thick glasses and a back brace along with a pacemaker on the field, these officials associations are independant groups and strive to keep the good old network alive. In summation, rest assured that least 1 game will be completely screwed up by the fatal five in each Division, hell…….maybe 1 game per round,per division

  • ’00

    Impossible to see 3 Serra League teams in the semi-finals? Is Amat and/or Crespi too much of a stretch?

  • Kaptain Keifer says…”Party at my house”

    The CIF would definitely step in and move the game to Mt. Sac or Citrus if BA wins the coinflip. A semifinal game between Mission Viejo and Bishop Amat will easily draw at least 10,000 fans.

    Actually, when I think about it…it is likely that the Sierra league and a host of other SGV schools will not be playing at that time (no offense..just a possibility just like BA). So I’m sure a game of this magnitude would draw many fans that have never attended a BA game or will attend because the opportunity presents itself. This could very easily add at least 1,000 more!

    Fred is right about Amat having to rent some temporary bleachers. It’s imperative that they do to keep the game at Keifer.


    P.S. Mark my words, Crespi will beat Alemany if they happen to meet again in the playoffs.

  • Amat dude

    This is pac-5 football… no one has a clear way to the finals/semi’s/next round… This is the 3rd hardest division in the entire nation according to max preps. its an open division. any team could win on any day home or away..For instance the 09′ amat team that lost to poly at veteran’s stadium. no one would have predicted the game to be even close the way it was…. This is the best football in the state of california. no game will be an easy game…

  • 12th man

    All Southern section games will begin at 7:30 unless otherwise noted: Theres only two games starting at 7:00 in the Pac 5…

    Edison (7-3) vs. Santa Margarita (8-2) at Tesoro HS, 7 p.m.

    Crespi (7-3) vs. Los Alamitos (8-2), Thursday at Veterans Stadium, 7 p.m.

    (please note) BISHOP AMAT 7:30 at KEIFER STADIUM

  • Bluemoon

    You are all crazy if you think the Monsignor would move this game to a college stadium. That cost money to rent and the revenue would shrink in that event. Renting bleachers I could see him doing but moving the game from Kiefer is not going to happen. The field at Walnut HS could hold a game like this but then again you have to cut Walnut in. Ticket prices jump up a few bucks for playoffs and you must split some of the Monies with CIF, but to go outside from Kiefer would not get the Monsigor Carroll the Money he knows he can get hosting the game at Kiefer. Before all that happens you have to win Tesoro and you have to win the coin toss. With a Amat win the Entourage may driving the 5 fwy after Thanksgiving to get to Mission Viejo. Dont count your Turkeys before they are hatched.

  • AMAT 73

    All this talk on renting bleachers and such is fun but we have done nothing as of yet. We got Tesoro Friday and that is all we need to focus on . One game at a time .

  • Amat Dude

    I’m the real Amat Dude. Go find your own name impostor. The difference is in your writing style and your use of…. and lack of caps at beginning of a sentence is unorthodox.

  • big dawg

    3 Keys to victory:

    1. No mistakes, letdowns, mental lapses before half and or throughout the game…. Be prepared at all times, stay focused!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Containment- keep the quarterback in pocket, no long gains and it cuts down on his ability to improvise, complete long passes!!!!!!!!!!

    3. Reaction time- DB’s react/fight for the ball when its in the air, not after the ball has been caught, by then its too late, completion and or a touchdown!!!!!!!!!!!

    Address and correct those three areas and the Pac-5 title will be coming home to Amat. Go Lancers, bring it home boys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Big Dawg

  • 12th man

    This speech would be perfect,considering its playoff time.. Maybe you can post it!~ Its called “last play”

  • Amat Dude

    Here is why Amat will beat Tesoro:

    1) Amat is at home and their great fans are the 12th man. I guarantee there will be over 6,000 screaming Amat fans at Kiefer this Friday night.
    2) Tesoro is a running team with a sophomore QB. Anyone remember Matt Barkely and Wittek of Mater Dei? Amat will shut down the run and has beaten great young Orange County QB’s.
    3)Tesoro has the best front 7? well guess what, they are very young and Amat’s Offensive Line will turn them into minced meat. Moore will beat them on the ground and Rio to Gonzalez/Sanchez will beat them in the air.
    4) Amat is hungry for win, especially after beating themselves last week against Alemany. Alemany didn’t beat Amat, Amat beat Amat.
    5) Better execution, the boys watched and learned from all the critical and boneheaded penalties that cost them the game last week.
    6) The secondary will be better prepared this week against any possible air assault if Tesoro’s ground game comes to a screeching halt.
    7) The trip from Rancho Santa Margarita to LP is not going to be a pleasant one.

  • Last Play!

    12th Man,

    Check out this Amat football video…it has that speech in it…which I must add, is an AWESOME speech!The video captures the essence of BA ball.

    2009 BA Football Video


  • cif office

    bluemoon and all the other myopics, this office controls which venue a potential semi-final game will be held, consideration #1 where can we(meaning cif office) make the very most money? easy at mt sac or citrus, therefore we’ll move that game off campus, seriously amats vistor accomodations are less than Pac5 quality even the home side is 45 years old and not all that good, let alone the parking and restrooms, (especially if it rains with some many cars parked on the grass fields) so , understand it’s all about the $$$$ ok, we get 60% the schools 20% each…and yes, blue cups are still cool with me, bring plenty of shock-top for me and the crew

  • NotSince1995

    The Main Reason Why BishopNation Will NOT WIN –
    Wait for it…Smell it…Smell it…


    NOT IN 2010 EITHER…

  • Amat Dude


    Without Bishop Amat, what would your pathetic and lonely life be like you pathetic loser? We fill your empty head and your empty world 24/7 don’t we?

  • bookworm

    Im an amat grad from 89 and hate the fact that they have not addressed the issue of their stadium. They have, at times, had opportunities to renovate and/or expand. Can you find out why this change has not happened and do you believe that this will take away from future games if the issue is not resolved?

  • Uh Oh…PAC-5 NEWS!

    According to the LA Times blog, Mater Dei’s and USC bound WR Victor Blackwell’s ability to play (injury) is a game day decision on Friday versus Long Beach Poly. If he does not play, Long Beach Poly will win easily. Mater Dei without Blackwell is a completely different team…and not in a good way.

    Bishop Amat vs. Long Beach Poly anyone?

  • bookworm

    Im an amat grad from 89 and hate the fact that they have not addressed the issue of their stadium. They have, at times, had opportunities to renovate and/or expand. Can you find out why this change has not happened and do you believe that this will take away from future games if the issue is not resolved?

  • TaRah

    The Life of NotSince1995
    1996 18 y/o 180 lbs Rejected
    1997 19 y/o 185 lbs denied
    1998 20 y/o 190 lbs Scorned
    1999 21 y/o 195 lbs Humiliated
    2000 22 y/o 200 lbs Fired
    2001 23 y/o 205 lbs Divorced
    2002 24 y/o 210 lbs Depressed
    2003 25 y/o 215 lbs Angry
    2004 26 y/o 220 lbs Delusional
    2005 27 y/o 225 lbs Rejected, denied & scorned
    2006 28 y/o 230 lbs Rejected, denied, scorned , humiliated & fired
    2007 29 y/o 235 lbs Rejected, denied, scorned, humiliated, jobless & divorced
    2008 30 y/o 240 lbs Rejected, denied, scorned, humiliated, jobless, divorced , depressed & angry
    2009 31 y/o 245 lbs Rejected, denied, scorned, humiliated, jobless, divorced, depressed, angry & delusional
    Smell it smell it . . . you are it . . .
    32 y/o 250 lbs Rejected, denied,scorned, humiliated,jobless, divorced, depressed, angry & delusionl PATHETIC LOSER

  • just sayin’

    Nonesense w/IQ of 95 –
    Fun facts to know and tell:
    Division 1 Championships
    Long Beach Wilson not since – ever
    Mission Viejo – not since – ever
    Edison not since 1980
    Santa Margarita not since – ever
    Mater Dei not since 1998
    Tesoro not since – ever
    Newport Harbor not since – ever
    Alemany not since – ever
    San Clemente not since – ever
    Lakewood not since – ever
    Crespi not since 1986
    Long Beach Jordan not since – ever
    Servite (before last year – not since 1983)

  • I member. You member?

    I Noticed Nonsense tried to address anybody but “just sayin'”. Why? Puts Pac 5 in perspective? BTW – 2 nicest and newest gyms in the SGV, both well over $5M each are at Damien and Amat. “Liabilities” didn’t hurt anything there. Member?

  • Don

    What’s with Lancer faithful complaining about Kiefer? Dude, it has character.

    OK, it’s paid for and it has In and Out. Nonetheless, here’s what I remember about other schools in the same business.

    In the OC Servite plays anywhere, literally, although the 50/50 from a Mater Dei-Servite game makes a nice condo down payment. J Serra and Santa Margarita play at Saddleback except when Bob has dibs and Mater Dei plays at Santa Ana Stadium while OhhhLu plays at Orange Coast College.

    On the other hand, Bosco has a home field as does Notre Dame which is pretty nice. St. Paul has the Pit, which I like, but then, I’m from Whittier. Damien has a great stadium, especially when they dust. I hear Cathedral is nice now, haven’t been there in ages. Crespi has a home field, small stands and they still make them wear those ugly ass uni’s. Yechh. Alemany has a band box over the hill and far away from the school and Loyola plays at LA Valley College but St. Frannies has nice digs and Chaminade has a home stadium which I hear is nice, never been there. Oaks Christian has nice facilities too, I think Bill Gates or Jerry Jones paid for them.

    I know I missed a bunch of schools, but you get the idea, lots of other great programs have no home stadium at all, not to mention In and Out. You guys should feel blessed. Now go out and Lancerize Tesoro tomorrow and stay healthy.

  • Long Beach Poly

    Long Beach Poly will beat Mater Dei if Victor Blackwell does not play.

  • Joe Amat


    I’m with you on Keifer. Character counts!

    No need to go elsewhere – and Keifer as shown the ability to host large #’s so CIF would never change the venue for that reason. There’s no guarantee another venue would get any more than the 10,000 to 12,000 Amat has handled in the past to offset additional cost for venue, security, loss of parking, concessions, etc.

    The Archdiocese made MSGr develop a 5-year Master Plan to protect against his habit of band-aid building on campus. I’m personally not a fan of the athletic complex design that involves moving the baseball and the stadium- but it’s way down the list of improvements anyway.

  • Frank

    @ no sense 95
    “The Main Reason Why BishopNation Will NOT WIN” As I quote from your own words. I would really like to see something debatable or any kind of sound argument from you. You make statements that require you to follow with an answer, but then you don’t answer the question that you self propose. Obviously your education is lacking, if you had been able to attend a school like Bishop Amat you would have been able to write and make a cogent argument. You see when you propose an idea and you take it to writing such as in a paper or article, you must then back your proposal with sound evidence supporting your original idea. These lack of basic skills are very apparent in all your writings. Look No Sense 95 its not your fault that you were not intelligent or athletic enough to attend there. You must learn to own your fears and accept the past for your healing to start. as I said before we are hear for you and are always willing to give you counsel if you accept. I want to make that clear that it is your decision we are not trying to punk you into anything as I know you have been punk d all your life. So again when you are ready, we are here.
    Sincerely, Frank

  • FredJ

    Bookworm, they spent all the money on their state-of-the art basketball facility when they should have addressed the football stadium first…they have plans for a new football stadium, it just might not be finished until 2020…that’s the rumored joke I keep hearing. But you know what, you can’t complain about Kiefer, the action is on top of the field, an advantage you won’t get with a huge track that comes with a stadium, plus I love the natural turf over the fake stuff, because they keep the grass in good shape…In short, I can wait.

  • Joe Amat

    Fred, Fred, Fred,

    You were in old Tate Duff Gym. Ever been in the old locker facility? Interview coaches in their “offices”? Had visiting teams dress with the girls PE students?Have to walk across campus for the Athletic Directors office? Watch film in a classroom… or in the same locker room you just changed in?

    The gym ABSOLUTELY had to come 1st. BUT… I was in favor of addressing BOTH at the same time and combining the construction gym with the home bleachers/concessions,rest rooms, etc. Foresight and planning is not among MSGr’s strong suit and he wantts no other opinions that conflict with his own.

    Retirement cannot come too soon!

  • Don


    Not that Monsignor asked, but I’d vote for a baseball field reorientation and a fence.

    That probably means one less softball field and PE classes on the sidewalk but really, that seems like a small price to pay for baseball. But that’s only me. šŸ˜‰

    Good luck tonight.

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