The Scouting Guru looks at playoff divisions and where teams should be placed

The Scouting Guru has been all over the San Gabriel Valley and beyond, and like always, he’s offered to share his thoughts, free of charge. Don’t hate, enjoy it for what it’s worth, which is one man’s opinion on the talent in the San Gabriel Valley.

The Scouting Guru, James Escarcega: First off, let me wish all of you and your families a Happy New Year. It’s been a busy month and half and now that the season has concluded we can take a deep breath and relax for a little while before the season starts again… January 9, 2012.
I know that is a little outrageous, but with the passion that you have as fans to the only sport that we can have a civil conversation with at the dinner table, I know that many of you will have opinions on the sport in our area.
One of the things that I like to do every year is keep track of the divisions that involve the teams in the SGVN and where I think they should be placed. And I try to use facts and numbers to come to conclusions. And with the CIF-SS office reevaluating the playoff division for the 2012 and 2013 seasons, it was time for me to delve into my worksheets and see where our leagues should be placed. (To continue reading click thread)


Let me make this observation before we start. I think the Valley is very lucky to have a CIF-SS commissioner in Rob Wigod. He gets it. He knows the area very well and is in-tune to the issues that are on the table in our area. We are very lucky to also have Glenn Martinez as the assistant commissioner for football in the area. I can safely tell you that he watches our area and knows what is right and what is wrong.

Now let’s get to the matter at hand and that is the Divisions. First off, let me make this observation. I looking at the last two years, I don’t believe that massive changes are needed. Most of the evidence I will be using comes from calpreps.com. The numbers they use are really good and give the fans a great idea as to where the leagues should be placed. Here are the rankings of the divisions in 2010 and 2011

2011 Calpreps Rankings 2010 Calpreps Rankings

1. Pac-5 (Division 1) 41.1 1. Pac-5 (Division 1) 37.6

2. Inland (Division 2) 31.2 2. Inland (Division 2) 28.4

3. Northern (Division 3) 27.4 3. Northern (Division 3) 24.5

4. Western (Division 4) 20.8 4. Western (Division 4) 22.2

5. Southwest (Division 6) 18.9 5. Southwest (Division 6) 15.9

6. Eastern (Division 8) 14.4 6. Eastern (Division 8) 12.0

7. Southeast (Division 7) 8.2 7. Central (Division 5) 11.0

8. Northwest (Division 10) 8.0 8. Southeast (Division 7) 10.3

9. Central (Division 5) 7.8 9. Northwest (Division 10) 7.5

10. Mid-Valley (Division 11) -4.9 10. Mid-Valley (Division 11) -2.9

11. Southern (Division 9) -5.2 11. Southern (Division 9) -6.3

12. East Valley (Division 12) -8 12. East Valley (Division 12) -15.9

13. Northeast (Division 130 -15.1 13. Northeast (Division 13) -20.2

As you can see, the work that Wigod and his staff have done the last two years has been outstanding. Where the top four divisions are placed and ranked accordingly, it shows that very minor changes are needed. And the same thing goes for the bottom four divisions. Most of the teams look the same and geography forces the team to be placed where they should be. So I am in the minority that thinks that the Rio Hondo League doesn’t need to be moved. I will touch on that issue a little later. Where the changes are needed to be made are in leagues in what I will call “Mid-Major” leagues. These are leagues that are in the middle of road when it comes to high school football in Southern California. Once in a while you will find a team that can compete with the big boys for one game and one game only (West Covina 2010) but for the most part, they play good football. Those Divisions that feel fall into that category are the Central, Eastern, Northwest and Southeast Divisions.

And in those divisions, I think that where you will find the most changes.

First let take a look at the upper echelon of the Southern Section when it comes to football and that is the Division’s 1 thru 4. When I decide to look at a Division, I want to know how the leagues stack up compared to the rest of the leagues in Southern California. Once you get that, then geography becomes a bit of a factor. But the one thing that the Southern Section office has made clear, geography is not as big a factor as people think it is. They are not afraid to put one league in a Division that might be a bit farther in distance than the rest of the leagues in the Division.

A great example of that is the Southwestern League in the inland Division, the Serra League in the Pac-5 and the Pac-7 in the Western Division.

My starting point was in the belief that I was looking for the 16 best leagues in Southern California. In the end I found 13 of them. And here they are

Trinity, South Coast, Serra, Marmonte, Southwestern, Baseline, Sierra, Mission, Pac-7, Big VIII, Foothill, Moore, Empire.

There are five leagues that – based on a two year study – that look quite the same, Citrus Belt, Bay, Sunset, Sea View and the Sunbelt League. Out of those three leagues, I’d place the Citrus Belt, Sunset and the Bay League into the first tire of leagues for geography purposes. So let’s list the top 16 leagues (based on our projections) and put their current division that they are listed.

Trinity (Pac-5), South Coast (Pac-5), Serra (Pac-5), Marmonte Northern), Baseline (Inland), Southwestern (Inland), Mission (Western), Pac-7 (Western), Sierra (Inland), Big VIII (Inland), Foothill (Northern), Moore (Pac 5), Empire (Southeast), Sunset (Pac-5), Bay (Northern), Citrus Belt (Inland).

In my honest opinion, this is where you find your top five leagues and make them the Pac-5. Theorically, however, you really can’t do that. For instance, the Moore League will always get a free pass for one reason only – Long Beach Poly. Fair enough. So let’s find the top four leagues and put them in the Division. Whatever formula you are using, it should be clear that the South Coast, Trinity, Serra and Marmonte Leagues are the four best leagues in the Southern Section.

They have performed the best in their non-league schedules and have earned the right to stay in the division.

One can argue that the Serra League should be out. My answer is why? In 2010, Alemany made the semifinals, Crespi, quarterfinals. So the league was 3 and out in the first round this year. When you look at their resume compared to the Sunset League, there is no comparison. So in my projections, the Sunset is out and the Marmonte is in.

The next question is, “Where to do you put the Sunset?” Easy, in the Southeast Division, you have a great Orange County division with a league that will give La Habra tougher competition en route to a championship game.

Now let’s go to the Inland Division. This will cause people to say I have an agenda. Clearly, I don’t have a dog in the fight. So here it goes, there is no reason for this division to be changed. I can hear all of you saying “What about Corona Centennial? Why shouldn’t they be moved to the Pac-5 division?” Well, my answer is simple, the Big-8 league has underperformed the last two years. Consider in 2011 that JW North, Norco and Corona Santiago bit the dust hard this year. When you look at the resume for the Marmonte League and the Big VIII league, you don’t see the dominance of the Big VIII. I have a philosophy; you don’t punish a league for one team. A great example of that is the Freeway League. La Habra has won numerous CIF titles in the Southwest Division, but they have not moved up and have remained in the same division for the past four years.

Another point to consider, the Southwestern League has been just as strong – if not more stronger – that the Big VIII and the Baseline League was just as tough as the two league’s we’ve just mentioned. Plus, the Sierra League has had a team make the semifinals, two years ago and the quarterfinals this past season. I can hear the South Hills people saying this, “If you think South Hills can play in the Inland Division, you are smoking the weed pretty good.” My response is simple; I am looking at things from a Divisional perspective. If you don’t like the fact that South Hills is in the Inland Division, talk to your principal in two years when Leagues get realigned. It was clear that the principals in the Mt. SAC area had an agenda against South Hills two years ago and got what they wanted. For right now, though, the Sierra League stays in the Inland Division.

So now we move on to the Northern Division where we have to replace the Marmonte League. Well, before we do that – the ratings from calpreps.com reflect another change in that division, the Golden League has no business being in the Northern Division and has to be dropped to the Western Division. OK, so we have two leagues that have to go into the Northern Division. If that was the case, we project the Mission League and the Pac-7 League fit in nicely. These two leagues have dominated the Western Division. And it makes for a nice division too.

Before we move to the divisions that everyone in the area is concerned about – let me make one final observation. We are truly going to find out whether the CIF-SS is about competition or money. Think about this one undisputed fact. 2011 was a water shed year for the CIF-SS. Interest in high school football is at an all-time high. With various platforms being used by Fox Sports West/Prime Ticket (via the game of the week and the Prepzone) folks are being exposed to high school more now than at any time in the Jim Staunton era. You have a commissioner in Rob Wigod who understands how technology can be merged with sports and be used to draw interest to the CIF-SS.

For the first time in the history of CIF-SS, three championship football games were telecasted live on over-the-air television. And with it came huge crowds and unbelievable interest. That is not counting the number of hits that the Prepzone received from viewers on the Internet throughout the season. And you better believe that the corporate sponsors that the CIF-SS secured this year are extremely happy with the results that they got. So imagine for a moment, you are Rob Wigod and you are meeting with your Marketing people. They show you the results from the gates from the top-three divisions in football (Marmonte, Inland, and Pac-5), the ratings from all three championship games on TV (which had to be pretty darn good) and you know what the first question is going to be, “Why are we changing anything?”

It’s a good question to be asked. If you move the Marmonte League e to the Pac-5 division, from a marketing point of view, you could be losing huge gates from fans in the Ventura County, TV ratings from fans in the area – just for the sake of competition? The corporate sponsors won’t like it because that means you are losing a segment of the audience that would be watching a semifinal that features St. Bonaventure vs. Oaks Christian. Now the CIF-SS will tell you that it takes its direction for its membership schools. Well, after the powers at be in Sacramento just told schools that they will not be expecting 6 billion dollars from last year’s budget, the direction of the membership schools will be simple, “Get us every nickel and dime you can get from corporate sponsorship so that our membership fees remain the same.”

So the question that CIF-SS Commissioner Rob Wigod has to think about is simple, “Is it financially feasible and marketability sound for us to make changes to our upper-echelon divisions?” It’s a huge question that if answered incorrectly could have severe repercussions to the CIF-SS in regards to football.

Now let’s get to our area and project the possible changes. Clearly the one league in the area that has stood heads and shoulders above the rest of the league in the Southeast Division is the Hacienda League. Unlike the Rio Hondo League where one team has dominated the league and the playoffs, the Hacienda League shown that they need to be moved to a higher division. With two teams making the finals last year and three teams making the quarterfinals this year, it’s time for a move up.

According to the ratings from calpreps.com, the evidence is clear. It’s time for the Hacienda League to go to the Central Division and for the Mt. Baldy League to move to the Southeast Division. Please keep in mind West Covina fans, according to the numbers, this is a lateral move at best and fits perfectly. It’s not like your moving to the Inland Division.

And by the way, I’d make one more move. Based on the numbers, I’d move the Suburban League to the Southern Division and move the Pacific Coast League to the Southwest Division. The Pacific Coast League has DOMINATED the Southern Division and the ratings indicate that they would fit just nicely in the Southwest. The Suburban League has underperformed and the ratings indicate that they should be moved to the Southern Division.

You might be asking, do you make any changes in the Mid-Valley Division. My answer is simple – no. I understand that Monrovia has won the division the last two years, but the rest of the Rio Hondo League has done NOTHING!!! Plus, the ratings that I shared with you at the beginning of the column don’t reflect the need for changes to be made.

So there you have it. If you are interested in seeing my spreadsheet with the projected divisions, please email me at sgvierecruiting@gmail.com. I’d me more than happy to share with you what I have put together.

That is if you are not a marketing guy… I know where you guys stand.

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