Pac-5 Division Prediction: Time for Serra to get some respect with Alemany and Amat in semifinals, but St. John Bosco wins it all

I’m going to take flack with such bold predictions, but I like Amat’s chances at Long Beach Poly and calling the upset over Mission Viejo at home in the second round. It feels entirely possible. In Amat’s losses to Alemany and Notre Dame, turnovers decided the game as much as anything. Amat’s yet to play a turnover-free game in a big game and if they protect the ball, their offense can do the rest. Alemany has a very winnable first round game and I like their athletes against Mater Dei. Now wouldn’t that be something, two Serra teams in the semifinals? It’s a good start for their street cred, but St. Bonny’s and St. John Bosco are going to the title game. I’ve felt all along St. John Bosco is the best of the best and not changing my mind now.

Pac-5 Division Playoff Predictions
First Round
Top Half
Long Beach Cabrillo at No. 1 St. Bonaventure — St. Bonny
Santa Margarita at El Toro — El Toro
Moorpark at Alemany — Alemany
Lakewood at No. 4 Mater Dei — Mater Dei
Bottom Half
Tesoro at No. 3 St. John Bosco — St. John Bosco
Oaks Christian at Notre Dame — Notre Dame
Bishop Amat at Long Beach Poly — Bishop Amat
Westlake at No. 2 Mission Viejo — Mission Viejo

Second Round
St. Bonaventure vs. El Toro — St. Bonaventure
Alemany vs. Mater Dei — Alemany
St. John Bosco vs. Notre Dame — St. John Bosco
Bishop Amat vs. Mission Viejo — Bishop Amat

St. Bonaventure vs. Alemany — St. Bonaventure
St. John Bosco vs. Bishop Amat — St. John Bosco

St. John Bosco vs. St. Bonaventure — St. John Bosco

Facebook Twitter Plusone Digg Reddit Stumbleupon Tumblr Email
  • Jefe

    You’re a genius, Fred.

    I concur.

  • Jefe

    Wait a minute….you’re picking Amat over Mission Viejo??!?! LOL!!!! I take back what I said.

  • 12th man

    SJB best defense in the Pac5!!! Defense wins Championships!!..One game at a time for Amat..I’m having problems with them winning the 2nd game vs Mission Viejo..I hope bloggers don’t fall into your trap! It seems like Fred is just trying to generate hits by picking Amat over MV..I know he doesn’t truly believe that!

  • 12th man

    Mission Viejo averaging 51 points per game!! They have put up 45 on San Clemente, 55 on Tesoro, 52 on Redlands East Valley & 49 on El Toro!! Fred is there something your not telling us? MV is a passing team & they bring that aerial attack to every game..How do you suppose Amat’s defense will stop them?

  • Call me crazy I guess

    • 12th man

      I know anything is possible on any given Friday..But to predict Amat over MV who is at least a 3 td favorite if they should meet is Crazy! So yeah! I’ll call you crazy! lol..Gotta love the confidence though~ I just don’t see Amat slowing down that offense & I use the term “Slowing Down” because Stopping them is just out of the question..Were talking about a defense who allowed 48 to CH & 49 to ND & then gave up 56 to Alemany..So what I’m hearing you say is that Mission Viejo’s offense is not up to par with these other teams that ran up the score vs Amat?

      • I’m not saying Amat’s a better team or should be favored. I’m calling an upset, these things happen. Every now and then strange things happen at Kiefer, we’ll see. They’ve got to get there first.

        • Jefe

          A Bob Johnson coached Diablo team isn’t going to take anyone lightly. The Diablos would bury Amat. That team is absolutely loaded with amazing players who all play their position exceptionally well. I’d love to see the Lancers win but there is no chance in hell they do. That game would get ugly quick.

          • Again, haven’t written anything that suggests Amat’s a better team than Mission Viejo, I know Amat would probably be a 14-17 point underdog if they meet up. But every now and then I pick an upset based totally on feeling, this is one of them. (Besides, it’s not fun always picking the favorites). Last year I predicted Amat to go out in the first round and they did, where was my homerism there? I’m wondering why I don’t get called a Gladstone homer, I picked them to go to the semifinals and upset a fourth-seed in the second round. I’ve got Charter Oak beating Rancho Cucamonga too, but I don’t hear anyone calling me a Charter Oak homer. All kind of funny to me.

        • Just a point of information. Mission Viejo, with all their greatness over the years, has never been able to win a championship at the highest level. For whatever reason, they have always seemed to get upset along the way. Wy not us. Why not now. (Of course, 1st things first – they have to beat the HS that has more graduates that have played in the NFL than any other. No small task (no matter what Aram will have you believe)

          • tommy gun

            I seem to remember in the early 2000’s, when Sanchez was the QB, MV winning the D2 Championship after having beaten both the D1 Champion and D1 Runner up earlier in the same season. I believe that MV has only been in the Pac-5 since 2005 and have several more Pac-5 Playoffs victories then that of Amat, including an appearance in the Pac-5 Championship Game which is something Amat has never done since the inception of the Pac-5. MV has also been voted a State Champion something, for whatever reason, Amat has never accomplished. Joe, When it comes to accomplishments on the field over the last 16 years, I don’t think Amat’s going to want to start comparing resumes with the likes of MV.

          • So tommy boy, all that is fine and good, but what did I write that was not true?

    • WCDan

      Yeah your crazy Fred, no offense Amat fans, not disrespecting just keeping it real.

  • Lance R

    First round:Upper
    St. Bonny over Cabrillo
    Santa Margarita over El Toro
    Alemany over Moorpark
    Mater Dei over Lakewood
    First round Lower
    St. John Bosco over Tesoro
    Oaks Christian over Notre Dame
    Amat over LBP
    Mission Viejo over Westlake
    Second Round:upper
    St. Bonny over Santa Margarita
    Mater Dei over Alemany

    Second round Lower

    St. John Bosco over Oaks Christian
    Mission Viejo over Bishop Amat
    Semi Finals:
    St. Bonnys over Mater Dei
    Mission Viejo over St. John Bosco

    St. Bonnys over Mission Viejo

  • Valley Athletics

    I dont see it happening . Alemany maybe . If Koa and the defense plays like they played against notre dame they won’t pass the first round . Amat would need a perfect game and mission viejo there worse game of the year .

  • 12th man

    The Pac-5 Division is the toughest in Southern California, and the reason is that usually most of the teams are capable of winning first-round playoff games.

    Santa Ana Mater Dei Coach Bruce Rollinson warns, “It’s probably one of the more talented pools of teams that have made the 16-team bracket. I guarantee you there will be an upset in round one. Hopefully, it won’t be us. Somebody will get hit in the mouth and rock the bracket.”

    Mater Dei opens against Lakewood on Friday night.

    The toughest games to figure out will be Santa Margarita-El Toro, Oaks Christian-Sherman Oaks Notre Dame and Bishop Amat-Long Beach Poly.

    Does Santa Margarita have enough offense to beat El Toro? Can Oaks Christian run the ball well enough to beat Notre Dame? Can Poly’s rushing attack control the clock enough to beat Bishop Amat?

    If all goes as planned, there’s going to be some amazing quarterfinal matchups, and then the predictions will be even tougher.

    Think about these potential quarterfinal matchups: St. Bonaventure vs. Santa Margarita, Alemany vs. Mater Dei, St. John Bosco vs. Notre Dame, Long Beach Poly vs. Mission Viejo.

    First, though, the favorites will have to survive the first round.

    — Eric Sondheimer

    • Jefe

      There is going to be at least one upset on Friday night. I can feel it. My Braves better come out & smash Tago early & often.

  • Colt74

    Bishop Amats fate is entirely dependent on which team shows up on Friday night. When they firing on all cylinders I think they can play with anyone. When not, it gets ugly and fast. For the players and coaches they have I think they can get past the first 2 rounds. After that depends on how they do in the first 2 and how well they hold onto the ball.

    • Jefe

      Amat doesn’t have the defense to stop teams like Bonaventure, Mission Viejo or Bosco. If they did, I would have no problem agreeing with you.

      • Colt74

        IMHO I don’t think any team can stop Bosco……without scud missiles.

        • Jefe

          The problem teams have had with Bosco is the amount of players the Braves can rotate in on defense AND offense. They just have this endless amount of talent, especially at running back. Their 4th stringer is racking up 100+ yard games against the Trinity League. Pretty impressive stuff.

  • Lance R

    St. John Bosco has a very good team this year. Can they win it all sure they sure do look like the favorite. Upsets happen. J Serra played them close and took them into O.T. …Mater Dei played them close as well so it is not like they can cake walk their way through this. St Bonnies and MV are the real favorites here St. John Bosco is the Dark Horse. If you want to go to a really darker horse in this tournament the team that may surprise is Oaks Christian. Amat Poly is a toss up I am picking the Lancers by heart but their defense really needs to show up. We know we can score points with the offense we have, lately tho I see too many gadget plays being called that are not fooling anyone. Keep it simple the razzle dazzle is only good so many times. The defense just gives up too many points and must tackle better and not give away the big play to being fooled. If we keep simple on offense and not force Koa into a hurry broken play mistakes, contain on defense this game will be close. If the Amat team that showed up vs Notre Dame and Alemany shows up, Poly takes advantage and wins going away. One game at a time but Fred I do like your moxie when it comes to the Lancers hope you are on to something here and not just yapping for blog hits.

    • WCDan

      Pretty much agree on your post Lancer R, except I think SJB is every bit as real as MV and St. Bonnies. I believe J Serra/SJB was a fluke game and SJB would annihilate J Serra if they played again. The Mater Dei/SJB game is more of an indication of how good Mater Dei is this year and not so much an indication of SJB’s vulnerability.
      I also agree with your analysis of Amat and LBP, I think if the Amat that beat Crespi shows up then Amat can pull this one out.

      • WCDan

        One other thing I forgot to mention on the Amat vs LBP prediction,
        is Sal Velasquez. If he plays I think it makes a big difference in Amats defense. I get a feeling him not being in the ND game had a lot to do with how poorly Amat played in that game.

  • warrior fan

    Wishful thinking fred, but the facts remain Amat has yet to beat 1 pac5 playoff contender this year. And you really think they are going to beat MV? no way now i will say i think they are going to BLOW OUT LBpoly but then they will be blown out by MV. As for us well you have it right in the beginning but us against St Bonnie will be a walk in the park. Yes they have the run and a very good running back in green but we seen some of the best running backs or running teams and all we did was adapt except once against CC very close though, but St. Bonnie has no win over us we will welcome them to the big league if El Toro doesnt.

    • AMAT 73

      warrior fan, I see you are still hung on a big win by AMAT ( you just can’t stop thinking about AMAT can you ) against a PAC-5 contender in the playoffs. Well which PAC 5 contender has alemany beat this season ????? Surely by your own standards you cannot consider your wins against ND or AMAT as wins over PAC 5 title contenders or do you ????? We both know Loyola is by no means a contender. So please tell me where’s alemany’s win that you are pressing so hard about to AMAT fans. I think you went 1-1 against the Inland where as AMAT went 1-0-1 so you got nothing on us against the Inland . And I don’t think you adapted very well against Crespi either by the way .So please show me that one big win and the teams from Pasadena don’t count .

      • 1st and goal

        Got word from my son that Velasquez has not been at school all week. It does not appear the he will be playing this Friday night. Dont have all the details but it is serious. Its a result of an injury he sustained from the Loyola and ND game. Thats why he was on the bench most of the game. Fred, can you confirm?

      • warrior fan

        WHAT? by my standards i clearly stated ANY pac5 playoff contender. ND is one and i guess we can count Amat i mean they did get granted an at large birth. Amat 73 look dude im not hung up on Amat im just glad your back because i believe i owe you a crow pie or did you have yours already. And dude you fans stay bragging about the CO win, now that the shoe is on the other foot you want me to take it out your a$% because it hurts well now you see how some of the SGV feels when Amat fans continue to brag about how dominating they are to the them.

        • AMAT 73

          warrior fan,
          Before I go any further with you , do you know the meaning of contender ???????

    • WCDan

      Even though both are new to the Pac 5, St. Bonnies knows big boy ball, and so does OC, doesn’t mean either will win the Pac 5, but both have had teams on the level of any Alemany team that I can remember including this year. Believe me if Alemany plays St. Bonnies it will be no walk in the park, and it will be St. Bonnies that will break in El Toro to the big leagues.
      Good games though.

  • 12th man

    Amat could beef up that defense by adding a player or two from either the freshman or JV team!!..Someone in the middle to help velasquez defend the run or someone on the D-line to add more pressure rushing the QB..It could happen! Other teams are doing it!


    Football: Freshmen and sophomores getting promoted for playoffs

    November 7, 2012 | 1:12 pm

    One benefit for teams that make the playoffs is they get to promote freshmen and sophomores from their lower-level teams to the varsity to gain some experience. Some might even get playing time.

    Sherman Oaks Notre Dame will move up freshman running back Leo Lambert III, who rushed for 2,067 yards and 33 yards for the 9-1 freshman team.

    Alemany is promoting 6-foot-2, 260-pound freshman lineman Matt Crow.

    Gardena Serra has two freshmen who played junior varsity ready to contribute on the varsity in receiver Brandon Burton and linebacker Blake Walls.

    Lake Balboa Birmingham will have to wait another week to move up freshman linebacker Eric Flowers. He’s 13 and will turn 14 next week. Freshman defensive back Tylin Scott could see action in a Patriots’ City Section Division I opener against Gardena.

    — Eric Sondheimer

    • fb101

      12th Man,

      2 Things:

      Why do you copy/paste stuff from the LA Times so much on this bolg?

      IF there was a frosh or JV player who could actually be playing and CONTRIBUTING on Amat’s varsity, don’t you think the coaching staff would have them on varsity already?

      There WILL be frosh and JV players coming up for playoffs, BUT it’s probably REMOTE that any will play UNLESS there is NO ONE else.

      • 12th man

        So readers get the best of both worlds (La Times/SGV Tribune)

  • 12th man

    (Steve Fryer OC VARSITY)


    Steve Fryer’s predictions for the CIF-SS football playoffs:

    Pac-5 Division

    First round: St. Bonaventure of Ventura over Cabrillo of Long Beach; Santa Margarita over El Toro; Alemany of Mission Hills over Moorpark; Mater Dei over Lakewood; St. John Bosco of Bellflower over Tesoro; Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks over Oaks Christian of Westlake Village; Bishop Amat of La Puente over Long Beach Poly; Mission Viejo over Westlake.

    Second round: St. Bonaventure over Santa Margarita; Mater Dei over Alemany; St. John Bosco over Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks; Mission Viejo over Bishop Amat.

    Semifinals: St. Bonaventure over Mater Dei; Mission Viejo over St. John Bosco.

    Final: Mission Viejo over St. Bonaventure.

  • Keep In It Real

    I also have St. John Bosco winning it all. I have them in the finals against Mater Dei. There’s no way Amat gets past the 2nd round…if they even get past Poly. Santa Margarita cannot beat El Toro without Johnny Stanton. This is a very good Pac-5 tournament outside the Moore league.

  • 12th man

    When two teams meet after the first round of the playoffs, the team with the fewest number of playoff home games at that point of the playoffs is the home team. If the teams have had the same number of playoff home games, a coin flip determines the home team.

    Coin flips have been completed for potential second-round matchups that would require coin flips to determine home teams.


    *St. Bonaventure vs. El Toro St. Bonaventure Coin Flip
    St. Bonaventure vs. *Santa Margarita Santa Margarita Automatic
    *Cabrillo/Long Beach vs. El Toro Cabrillo/Long Beach Automatic
    *Cabrillo/Long Beach vs. Santa Margarita Cabrillo/Long Beach Coin Flip
    Alemany vs. *Mater Dei Mater Dei Coin Flip
    Alemany vs. *Lakewood Lakewood Automatic
    *Moorpark vs. Mater Dei Moorpark Automatic
    *Moorpark vs. Lakewood Moorpark Coin Flip
    *St. John Bosco vs. Notre Dame/SO St. John Bosco Coin Flip
    St. John Bosco vs. *Oaks Christian Oaks Christian Automatic
    *Tesoro vs. Notre Dame/SO Tesoro Automatic
    *Tesoro vs. Oaks Christian Tesoro Coin Flip
    Poly/Long Beach vs. *Mission Viejo Mission Viejo Coin Flip
    Poly/Long Beach vs. *Westlake Westlake Automatic
    *Bishop Amat vs. Mission Viejo Bishop Amat Automatic
    *Bishop Amat vs. Westlake Bishop Amat Coin Flip

  • warrior fan

    Fred i have a question for you.
    This season what have you seen in Amat for you to think they would beat a team like MV?
    Or are you just being a homer?

  • 12th man

    No Sal Velasquez could spell “Trouble”!! This kid is the rock of the Amat defense!! He controls the ground game & apply’s the pressure when needed! I know Football is A team sport but without this kid in the game the LBP game could be a toss-up..Long Beach Poly will average 7 yds a carry with no Velasquez opposed to 3 to 5 yds with him playing..Fred Can you shed any light? I don’t think Amat will disclose this kind of information as it could benefit LBP in scheming a good running attack game plan…