Pac-5 and West Valley Division playoff scenario’s for Bishop Amat and Damien

Pac-5 Division Division playoff spots: (14 automatic, 2 at-large berths)
Leagues and playoff spots: Serra (3); Trinity (3); Mission (3); Marmonte (2); Moore (3)

mISSION SCENARIO
Mission League
Scenario’s:
If Crespi beats Alemany, Crespi gets the No. 1 spot. If Bishop Amat beats Notre Dame and Serra beats Loyola with Crespi winning, there is a three-way tie for first and coin flips will determine the top three guaranteed spots. If Crespi loses and Amat and Serra win, Amat finishes first, Serra second and Crespi third. If Serra wins and Crespi and Bishop Amat both lose, Serra wins the league title and Crespi, Amat and Alemany finish in a three-way tie for second with a coin flip determining two spots. As for the at-large berths, the Trinity will definitely get an at-large, leaving one left. Don’t expect the Moore or Big VII to get a fourth team in, their fourth place teams simply don’t stack up. That leaves either the fourth place team from the Mission or third place team from the Marmonte getting the final at-large. Worst case scenario is Amat finishing fourth with a 6-4 record. Would that get Amat in over a third-place Marmonte team? Depends. If Westlake beats Oaks Christian it finishes first in the Marmonte with St. Bonaventure likely finishing second. Oaks Christian as a third at 5-5 wouldn’t get in over Amat at 6-4. However, if Oaks Christian upsets Westlake and St. Bonny wins as expected, they finish in a three-way tie for first. If coin flips gets Oaks Christian and St. Bonny in with Westlake finishing third with a 7-3 record, Westlake would likely get an at-large over a fourth-place Mission team. If Oaks Christian or St. Bonny finish third, the Mission would likely get the at-large. So, a key game for Bishop Amat should it finish fourth is pulling for Westlake to beat Oaks Christian.

BASELINESCENARIO
West Valley Division playoff sports (14 at-guaranteed, 2 at-large)
League and playoff spots: Baseline (3); Foothill (3); South Coast (2); Southwestern (3); Sunset (3).
Baseline League
Scenario’s:
Upland has won the league title and top playoff spot regardless of what happens against Etiwanda. If Chino Hills beats Los Osos as expected, Chino Hills will finish second. If Rancho Cucamonga beats Damien, Rancho finishes third. If Etiwanda beats Upland and Damien beats Rancho Cucamonga, Etiwanda finishes third. If Upland beats Etiwanda and Chino Hills beats Los Osos as expected, then Damien could finish in a three-way tie for third with a win over Rancho Cucamonga along with Etiwanda and Rancho Cucamonga. A coin flip would determine the third-place team. The South Coast should get one at-large. The Baseline and Southwestern should battle it out for the other. At this point, I give a slight edge to the Baseline.

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