Fall TV: A view from the experts (and me)
The name Rubin Postaer and Associates may mean nothing to you, but they’re a huge media buyer on the West Coast. As such, it behooves them to divine broadcast network trends before anyone else, and they essentially deliver. Chuck Bachrach, a 40-year veteran in the advertising trenches, last year foresaw (as did many critics, but, surprisingly, few network executives) that the glut of serialized dramas would result in fierce cannibalism; that few of those shows would survive. And so it came to pass.
RPA was thoughtful enough to send me their projections for the 2007-08 season, a binder bulging with data and conjecture about which networks will win/lose/draw this year, and I herewith am thoughtful enough to condense RPA’s hard work down to the hardscrabble factoids, on a night-by-night basis, with you, you lucky, lucky (illegitimate children).
(Note: I’m not describing what the new shows are about; if you don’t know at this point, the networks have failed abysmally at their jobs. If you’re curious about certain shows, leave a comment and I’ll describe them for you in a future entry.)
MONDAY
RPA thinks NBC’s new lineup – “Chuck,” “Heroes” and “Journeyman” – has a chance of clicking with viewers, and that ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” will invariably help the network on a night when it has sucked wind since losing “Monday Night Football.” They think these networks will wrest the ratings title from the evening’s perennial winner, CBS, and that in the fall, Fox’s combo of “Prison Break” and “K-Ville” won’t work too well.
Me, I think RPA likes “Journeyman” too much and doesn’t appreciate CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory” and ABC’s “Samantha Who?” enough. But I agree that CBS faces a major challenge this season here from the networks RPA cites.
TUESDAY
RPA likes The CW’s “Reaper” as much as critics do, but likes Fox’s “New Amsterdam” (its placeholder for “American Idol”) far better than buzz otherwise suggests. Like everyone else, it hates ABC’s “Cavemen” and “Carpoolers.” It expects Fox to win (largely on the strength of “House”) and thinks CBS’s “Cane” will break that network’s “Judging Amy” curse of abject failure at 10 p.m.
Me: Never thought I’d say this, but the best show on this night (aside from “House”) is on The CW: “Reaper.” Were it not on opposite “House,” and were it not on The CW (which has the credibility problem that dogged UPN, which could never transform “Veronica Mars” into a success because not nearly enough people believed UPN would air a quality show), it’d be a sure-fire hit.
WEDNESDAY
RPA thinks The CW, again, will succeed, with “America’s Next Top Model” and new, WB-friendly “Gossip Girl.” Otherwise, it’s not particularly bullish on the other new shows (including Fox’s “Back to You,” CBS’s “Kid Nation” and NBC’s “Bionic Woman” and “Life”), though it thinks ABC has a promising lineup with “Pushing Daisies,” “Private Practice” (in particular, given that it’s a “Grey’s Anatomy” spinoff) and “Dirty Sexy Money.”
Me: Pretty much everyone at Press Tour loved “Pushing Daisies,” though many of the critics fretted over its chances at finding a sizable-enough audience. And there’s a sizable contingent that thinks “Bionic Woman” may be critic-proof. Otherwise, RPA seems pretty much on the money.
THURSDAY
RPA thinks CBS should remain on top, thanks to moving “Without a Trace” back to the night, but thinks Fox’s “Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?” and “Kitchen Nightmares” will finally make it a contender on this night. They’re not convinced NBC’s comedies and “ER” or ABC’s new “Big Shots” will be players.
Me: It’s a wildly competitive night, but RPA’s contention that quality won’t result in success is probably correct.
FRIDAY
RPA’s not all that interested, given that viewing levels on Fridays are seriously waning, but predict success for CBS.
Me: Whatever.
SATURDAY
Who cares? Certainly not the networks.
SUNDAY
RPA sees big trouble ahead for CBS, given “Viva Laughlin” (which many see as competing with “Cavemen” for garnering the quickest cancellation of the fall) and “Shark’s” move out of a protected timeslot. NBC’s football and ABC’s “Desperate Housewives” and “Brothers & Sisters” will remain strong and The CW might finally have something with “Life Is Wild.”
Me: What RPA said. Did James Woods convey to CBS executives that he was getting burned out on working on a TV schedule? Because that’s what flopping “Shark” and “Without a Trace” suggests – that they want to have a reason for canceling “Shark” without blaming the star.
David Kronke was appointed Mayor of Television after a bloodless coup in 2000. Since then, he has improved infrastructure, championed greater educational opportunities and fought for reforms that have utterly erased corruption and incompetence from the television industry. Since Mr. Kronke has ascended to power, Television is a far better place.
Comments
I think this media buyer doesn't have a clue on The Big Bang Theory. Here is an article from mediaweek magazine and it states The Big Bang Theory was one of the best bet picks by the media buyers. See here :
http://www.mediaweek.com/mediaweek/images/pdf/Upfront3.pdf
It also is # 9 in the buzz survey for new shows and is tied for 5th on intent to watch for viewers. See here :
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-08-2007/0004642012&EDATE=
This guy is crazy if he thinks The Big Bang Theory will not make it. It looks like a hit.
Posted by: John | August 13, 2007 8:29 PM