Biting the hands of those they feed

Last fall, we discussed the insights of the media-buying firm Rubin Postaer and Associates regarding their take on the then-impending 2007-08 TV season. I pitted my thoughts on upcoming shows against theirs, and if you take a look at that post, you’ll see I did pretty well in my prognostications, suggesting that “Journeyman” and “Cane” wouldn’t do as well as they expected (both: since cancelled) and that “The Big Bang Theory” and “Samantha Who?” would do better (both: since renewed).

My one mistake was in believing “Bionic Woman” might be critic-proof. (In my defense, it was critic-proof initially; it just wasn’t shlocky-execution-beyond-the-pilot-proof.) If this whole newspaper racket crashes and burns (like that’s ever gonna happen), perhaps I have a career in advising media-buying firms.

Yes, there is a point to this.

RPA has just released its Midseason Update, and while it notes the gloomy ratings numbers of the past season, it has some particularly tough words aimed at the networks regarding their behavior during the strike. Now, we’re not the sort to kick the networks when they’re down – oh, who are we fooling? Of course we are – and so here’s the summary from the report, written by Chuck Bachrach and David Scardino:

“Regarding the strike, anyone paying even some attention to entertainment industry labor relations knew a strike was very likely, the writers operating from heated emotions and embittered by the bad deal they made in 1988. As people who work primarily from their emotions, this was understandable. What wasn’t was the equally emotional reaction of the networks and studios – the supposed ‘business people’ at the table – when, having virtually resolved two of the three major sticking points, they left the table in a huff when picket lines appeared, on schedule, on the East Coast. That overly emotional reaction, when they could and should have just let it pass, caused the strike to continue for two more months.

“In the strike’s aftermath, the networks seem to have given no thought to at least an attempt to make an event or series of events out of the return of their scripted shows, in the process, throwing away their medium’s one remaining strength: the potential to gather large audiences for special events. Maybe such a strategy would have failed, but at least it would have show the networks’ audiences and advertising partners a recognition of having put both through a trying time as well as an intention to try and make up for it. instead, shows will dribble back at irregular intervals and all will be competing for promotional time. We think a huge opportunity has been missed.

“Likewise, all the brave words about radically overhauling the way the network business model works largely evaporated the minute the writers’ new contract was done. The fact of the strike provided the networks with a great opportunity to reform a business model all agree is broken. That they didn’t grasp that opportunity but instead rushed furiously to reconstruct the old (broken) model indicates a huge failure of vision and to a conclusion that the networks are run by people with little imagination. It should come as no surprise then that so much television programming feels generic.

“That having been said, the audience reaction to the reappearance of original programming should be telling. For those of us immersed in the business of television it is sometimes easy to forget that the average viewer basically just wants a couple of entertaining hours at the end of the day. Since the middle of December, many of those average viewers have had to find that entertainment on platforms other than broadcast network. So, as original episodes slowly reappear on the schedule, how will they be welcomed back? The answer to that question will probably tell quite a bit about the coming 2008-09 season and, possibly, beyond.”

And this comes from a segment of the industry usually tries to be bullish about the networks.