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« FT woes | Main | Rating the Pac »
There is much debate about how many teams the Pac-10 will get into the NCAA Tournament, but based on the projected RPI from CBSSports, the Pac-10 could be hard-pressed to get more than five teams.
The rankings are:
9. UCLA
16. Arizona
20. Stanford
27. Washinton State
37. USC
58. Oregon
65. Arizona State
82. California
132. Washington
256. Oregon State
I think ASU will squeak in giving the Pac 10 six teams.
I still can't figure out how Xavier can have a higher RPI (6) than us (9). They more losses (4), no signature wins nearly as good as our list, and two of their losses were against Miami of Ohio (~0.500 in the MAC) and Temple (roughly ~0.500 in the A-10). We complain about the BCS computer algorithms, but how could Xavier have an RPI of 6?
xavier also lost by 22 to... drumroll please... arizona state!
The real computer rankings that you should pay attention to are the Pomeroy rankings: http://www.kenpom.com/stats.php
There is an actual correlation between tournament performance and the Pomeroy ranking. UCLA is number 2 overall.
I agree about the Pomeroy rankings - much closer. Two subjects - likelihood of getting into the tournament and then likelihood of getting far once there -- Clearly ASU and Oregon are our bubble teams - hope one or both get in. $c still needs a win or two, Oregon likely needs three; this is a huge week for ASU (and for Ucla, looking for that #1 seed in the West).
Assessing the tournament is a matter of figuring the chances of each team winning six in a row, half those with only a day to prepare, against the best opposition and vs styles that change every game. That puts the focus on talent, experience and defense - what you can bring every night. Every team figures to get cold at least one game of the six. Only Arizona has won a championship with a shooting team (the Bibby, etc. team) that I can remember. That puts Duke at a disadvantage though they can beat any opponent on a given night - six times in a row is hard.
Of the true threats, Ucla has to be there because of the defense and experience and having outstanding talent at the key positions. Kansas is a superb all-around team. UNC is there if their defense is up to it six games in a row. Texas belongs though a step behind I think (Ucla, with a healthy and game-ready Collison this time, I think figures to edge them out if they meet again). Tennessee is up there - has to be up there - but if Ucla hits just a few outside and can work through the D to get Love involved, I take the Bruins in a GREAT game. Wisconsin deserves a sniff due to their defense. Stanford I think is a Sweet Sixteen team. $c is also IF they get Hackett back. Even our borderline teams - Oregon and ASU - are capable of a win or two should they qualify.
GREAT time of year!
Good objective commentary by barrya except for one observation: If SC gets a dollar sign, does UCLA deserve a cent sign?
For the good teams it is not so much a matter of winning 6 in a row, as winning the final 3 in a row in the Sweet-16 against fairly even competition. If the odds of each game are close to 50-50 then winning the championship is only a 1 chance in 8. So don't be surprised if your favorite team is not the champion this year.