The Next Step?
TAMPA -
The Bruins are anxiously awaiting the offseason decisions of several players who have been rumored to be toying with the idea of entering the NBA Draft.
Sophomore forward Tyler Honeycutt is rumored to be the most likely to leap to the league, though he said after the game that he has not made a decision and would consult his family and coaches first. Honeycutt is rated anywhere from a mid-first-round pick to a late-second-round pick in most mock drafts.
UCLA head coach Ben Howland said that he would meet with Honeycutt shortly to discuss his future.
"That's really early," Howland said. "I haven't even discussed it with him. That's something we'll do here over the course of the next few weeks."
The Bruins are also wondering about the fate of junior guard Malcolm Lee and sophomore Reeves Nelson, who also said he had not made any decisions.
"I haven't thought about it at all," Nelson said. "I was going to try to take this as far as we could go. Now I'm going to just sit down with coach and my parents and then see what happens."
Smith, meanwhile, emphatically said he was returning for his sophomore year in the team's locker room.
My predictions:
-Honeycutt turns pro.
-Nelson stays.
-Lee stays (I'm 60-70% sure/hoping).
My observations on each of these players (plus Smith).
-Honeycutt still needs to add physical strength/bulk and a little bit of a nasty edge to really compete in the NBA, but I think he has the tools for a productive NBA career. He's obviously not there yet but I'm thinking he can develop into a player in the mold of Sean Elliott. I would be surprised if he is not a 1st round pick in this year's draft. Yes he stands to gain a lot by returning for another year of college ball, but there is also the undeniable risk of injury or a subpar season diminishing his draft stock. If he is able to secure a promise from an NBA club to be their 1st round pick, I think he should go, as it is a big financial gamble not to. I think most of us would make this same choice if placed in a similar situation.
-Nelson is probably only about 6'6" and really only has a chance to play small forward in the NBA, but he doesn't have the skills right now. I think his best chance to play at the next level is to make defense his number one priority and develop a consistent 15-20 ft jump shot. He only has above-average quickness but he is very strong and can play good man-to-man defense when motivated (see his performance against Arizona's Williams). He is a very good rebounder for his size. I think he has the potential to develop a niche as lock down defender in the mold of Ron Artest, but he will have to work at it. He has the luxury of doing so for two more years at UCLA...if I were him I might do it.
-Lee is a great perimeter defender and will be coveted by NBA teams to be able to lock up opposing 2 guards or even big point guards like Deron Williams. I think he will be able to develop a niche for himself much like Arron Afflalo has, but he has the potential to take it even further because of his natural quickness and athletic ability. Lee's game is still developing and took a great step forward this year after two years of uncertainty about where his true talents lie. If he continues to develop his jump shot (which made considerable strides this year) and cements his reputation as a defensive stopper, he will be a certain 1st round pick next year, especially if UCLA makes waves next year as anticipated. Even though another year in college would elevate his game further, I think he is good enough to be drafted this year. I think (hope?) his relatively recent emergence as a defensive specialist and UCLA being out of the national spotlight this year has Lee flying under the radar, which makes a 1st round selection this year difficult to predict.
-Smith is obviously a great talent but I am not convinced his game will translate easily in the NBA without much further improvement. For starters I think he is closer to 6'9", and despite his dominance in the post in college, it will be a completely different challenge in the pros. A lot will depend on the physical condition he is able to get himself into, and none of us really knows how this will go. He needs to lose another 30 pounds or so to really be in the type of shape to achieve his true potential (and in my opinion, to play in the pros). He will need to continue to work on his footwork and develop a post game a la Zach Randolph or Al Jefferson, as he is not super explosive, albeit potentially stronger. Honestly I can see him playing at UCLA for another two years, although I might change my mind depending on what kind of shape he returns in for next year.
Anyone see a comparison to Honeycutt and Trevor Ariza? Both 6'8, versatile, and known as freakish athletes coming out of college. Many though Ariza left the college game too early and then proceeded to bounce around the NBA for a few years before coming into his own with the Lakers and now Hornets. In the same way, seems that Honeycutt could really benefit from sticking around college for another year in order to come into the league as more of a confidedent impact player. At the least, he needs to improve his conditioning and pack on a few pounds (Ariza is now 210 although sported the pencil thin look at UCLA)
So glad Smith has decided to stay. He is by far the most important player we need to return. Once he loses another 30 lbs, he will be phenomenal!
Jon,
Please let these kids know they have a LOT of support! Whatever their decisions about their individual futures, they came together as a team and had one hell of a season. It was fun to watch them grow and improve and make their mark. They really have brought UCLA BB back from the brink.
I gotta think Honeycutt's a first-rounder if he decides to go. But that, in itself, does not necessarily mean it's a good decision to go. Using the following guide for salaries,
http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm
the 10th pick will earn about 64% more than the 20th pick, and the 5th pick will make almost twice as much as the 15th pick. If Honeycutt can improve his standing by 10 picks, he probably makes a better financial decision by staying since he'll easily make up the difference (of the year's salary he's forfeiting by staying) over the length of his rookie contract. Can he actually improve his stock by 10 picks? Tough to tell - that's what he's gotta figure out. Hard to imagine he'd ever be a top 5 pick, so if he's projected at 15 or better, he should probably take off. I wouldn't compare him to Ariza at all; Ariza was very raw and couldn't shoot a lick. TH is much more refined and ready for the NBA.
Lee, on the other hand, can improve his stock tremendously. He's improved a lot this year, but he's still very soft for the NBA and sometimes out of control. He's good for a few "what-are- you-thinking's" per game (as is Honeycutt.) He was nowhere near NBA-caliber at the beginning of the year, but he's improved (another Howland success story.) If Lee could have the same improvement from this year to next as he did last year to this year, his stock could improve from late 2nd rounder to mid 1st rounder - a huge financial difference. It would be foolish for Lee to go now.
As for Nelson, I don't know why he'd consider leaving - it certainly wouldn't be to make millions in the NBA. He's the one I'd compare more to Ariza, though he's even less of a shooter than Trevor was. He doesn't even try to shoot if he's in the key - dunk attempts only. His best shot at an NBA career is to stick around for 4 years and refine his game while being a beast on the college court ala Tyler Hansbrough.
Smith will be in the NBA probably after next year. As soon as those lay-in's turn into the vicious dunks we want to see, he's a top 5 pick. Not only that, I can see him developing a good mid-range shot with that nice touch he has. When he starts stepping out, facing the basket, and hitting a 17-footer's, he'll be really tough to defend in any league.
...forgetting the possibility of Tyler Lamb and Brendan Lane transferring...
whoever wants josh to start taking 17-footers is an absolute idiot. Obviously some post moves would help him, but for god's sake - 17 footers? Do you know how far that is?!
Nelson knows he wont be drafted, he's just on an ego-trip. Malcolm is the most nba-ready of the bunch, so he goes. Honeycutt i have no idea but who cares
Can't they just all stay so we can hang another banner already???
Honeycutt isn't ready, Lee could be the man next year, and Nelson is smoking somethin if he even thinks jumping to the NBA is an option.
This isn't football, the risk of major injury is pretty low.
Brendan Lane and Tyler Lamb transferring? Considering the twins, Lane ought to find somewhere he will play.
He is too soft, can't hit free throws, hasn't shown much shooting ability, not a bad rebounder, only a fair defender, so UCLA is not a great place for him. Now if he realizes he probably will not play professional basketball and wants a great education then stay at UCLA, hit the weight room, and get some playing time along with the diploma.
REALITY CHECK:
None of our players our NBA ready as of now.
Honeycutt has great potential but our waif at wing needs to fill out SOME, learn how to stop being a TO machine, and become more consistent in general. He could greatly improve his stock with another year.
Lee finally made great strides this year. However, he would need one more year of growth and consistency(on the offensive side of the ball) to become an Arron Afflalo like player in the NBA.
Nelson has tweener size but good strength. Fine for the college game but doubt it will ever translate to the NBA unless he can learn to make jump shots of all sorts(mid range, longe range, even three pointers) then he can perhaps have a Matt Barnes type future in the NBA. But for now, he can't hit the broad side of a barn. He'll need all of his next two years.
Smith needs to trim down and get into better physical shape. I don't worry about his height. He's like a tall Big Baby or small Shaq, take your pick. I love his soft Bynum like hands. He DOES need to develop a mid range game. He has a future in the NBA but whether it comes in one or two years we'll have to wait and see.
Don't forget, Ariza's coach was Lavin. Wouldn't you leave after a year. Honeycutt is more prepared than Ariza so he may decide to go but it would be late first to early second round. If that's what he wants, then I wish him luck. I just believe his long term career would profit with the short term investment of one more year at UCLA.
Ariza's coach wasn't Lavin. It was Howland... And they didn't get along. At all. Which is why he left.
Hey PDub, have you ever watched an NBA game? You wanna play in the league, you gotta be able to make a 17-footer. And yes, I know how far that is - it's from the elbow. You'd know that if you'd ever played. Pros make that shot with their eyes closed, that's why they're pros. It's hardly an extraordinary talent. Kevin Love made 23-footers regularly at UCLA, which is why he was the #5 pick after his freshman year.
An absolute idiot is one who thinks Lee is more NBA ready than Honeycutt.
Didn't Lamb get decent minutes for a freshman? Seemed like Howland gave him the freedom to shoot also, I would be surprised if he transferred....
If Honeycutt did indeed make the jump to the NBA, it would be silly for Lamb to transfer.
Has it been said that Lamb transferring is really a possibility? I feel he's shown glimpses of what he could be (a couple in the MSU game), though he seemed too reticent on the court to be effective offensively. And please, for whoever stays, practice free throws!!
Tyler Lamb is not and has not considered transferring.
The elbow is 15 feet away, FYI.
The Free Throw line is 15 ft. The shot from the elbow, aka the "short-17," is just under 17 feet.
Whatever the distance, Smith doesn't need to be anywhere near that anyways. Is Shaq ever out there? No. And that's who Smith most resembles - or should - right now, a young Shaq. He played that way against Arizona at Pauley and look at our result. Now look at what happened against Oregon. And MSU. And Florida. Why in the hell is he not dunking EVERYTHING possible while on the glass? I don't think he was the same after taking his awkward tumble & hurting his elbow/knee whatever. He simply lost what little vertical he did have, which was enough to result in dunk after dunk w/NEVER getting his shot blocked. Lay off the cheeseburgers, lift, run and start yoga or swimming or something for greater flexibility. He's gotta be 330. So, 25 pounds off and another 25 pounds of fat transformed to muscle and you've got a lottery pick for 2012. I hope he is getting plenty of help w/this, cause he seems like a great kid and only a handful of people in this world actually have opportunities like this. And one last thought: Smith can do something Shaq never could ... make FTs. That means even more $$$ -- and NBA wins -- down the road.
ucla otr, I like your take on Josh's conditioning. I also agree he should be dunking everything.
I'd take the other side on the Shaq comparison, though. He's not as tall as Shaq, and therefore I don't think he could be that imposing. Shaq was never out there because he simply couldn't shoot. If he could, he'd have been even tougher to guard, but then he probably wouldn't have been the dominant dunker he made himself to be. Compare him to Ewing, Robinson, and Olajuwon, who all could hit from outside. Karl Malone was another wide body and just an inch shorter than Smith. He knocked down 20-footers all day off the pick and roll, but also banged inside.
In the college game, I agree he doesn't need to be outside. He can be physically dominant in college, but he'll need more of that tough and savvy in the pros.
Anyway, it's obviously a topic I find pretty interesting - I think Josh is one of the most unique players around because of that soft touch. Good take!