Who will be the top seed in the Pac-12?

A little convoluted, but here are the best and worst case Pac-12 tourney seeding scenarios for the top four teams. Each has one game left on Saturday except Cal, which can only sit and wait. Scroll all the way down for the tiebreaker rules.

Oregon (23-7, 12-5)
Best case: No. 1 seed and an outright Pac-12 title. The Ducks beat Utah while UCLA loses to Washington, dropping the Bruins to a three-seed. Cal would be a No. 2 seed because it has a season sweep of Oregon (see second tiebreaker).
Worst case: No. 3 seed. Oregon loses at Utah, while UCLA clinches an outright Pac-12 title with a win at Washington. Cal would get the No. 2 seed.

UCLA (22-8, 12-5)
Best case: No. 1 seed and outright Pac-12 title. The Bruins beat Washington in Seattle for the first time since 2004 as Utah upsets Oregon. Cal gets No. 2 seed for sweeping the Ducks.
Worst case: No. 3 seed. Lose to Washington. Oregon and Cal both hold head-to-head tiebreakers over UCLA in the event of a three-way tie.

Cal (20-10, 12-6)
Best case: No. 1 seed and shared Pac-12 title. Both Oregon and UCLA lose on the road. The Bears own the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the two teams. If Arizona also ties with 12 wins, Cal still leads with a 4-1 record.
Worst case: No. 3 seed. Oregon and UCLA both win on Saturday. Cal gets a head-to-head tiebreaker against Arizona should the Wildcats beat ASU.

Arizona (23-6, 11-6)
Best case: No. 4 seed and four-way shared conference title. Arizona beats ASU in its season finale as Oregon and UCLA both lose on the road. The Wildcats still lose all tiebreakers with an 0-4 record against the Ducks, Bruins and Cal.
Worst case: No. 5 seed. Arizona loses at ASU while Colorado beats Oregon State. The Wildcats and Buffs would tie at 11 wins and a split series, but Colorado has two wins over Oregon and one against Cal.

***
KenPom.com predictions aren’t all that useful with such small sample sizes, but as a point of reference:
Oregon has 67% chance of winning at Utah.
UCLA has 52% chance of winning at Washington.
Arizona has 84% chance of winning vs. ASU.
Colorado has 86% chance of winning vs. Oregon St.

Here are the seeding tiebreakers, from page 57 of the Pac-12 media guide.
a. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
b. Each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
c. Won-lost percentage against all Division I opponents.
d. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

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  • Mark

    Who cares?

    • drakejr

      Says the man who comments in nearly every thread and can’t shut up.

    • Marc

      Ummm…

      Angry, a little?

      • Mark

        I’m amused more than anything. I’ve been warning people here for weeks that this team is a fraud and the program isn’t going anywhere under Howland. A lot of people probably got misguidedly giddy after beating Arizona. Well, not me, because I knew what was coming. I’m the one who gets to say, “I told you so.”

        • samollie

          You’re like BN Lite….same taste, less filling

  • Marc

    Jack – what needs to happen for UCLA to get a two seed? Both they and Oregon win, I suppose. Is there any way to get the two seed if they lose on Saturday at Washington?

    Thanks

    • Mark

      We don’t want a 2 seed. We want to lose Saturday. Then lose in the first round of the Pac 10 tournament. What is so difficult to understand?

      • Bigwoof1

        Why is it so difficult for you to understand that you’re the only one here who has that viewpoint?

      • senatorgassi

        What part of your personal experience with John Wooden or even
        familiarity with his teaching suggests that you honor UCLA in any
        fashion? Arrogance about being right is quite different than caring
        about what’s right. Your comment about losing combines the worst parts
        the worst part of T.J Simers and a USC fan. Remarkable territory you’ve staked out.

        • Mark

          How does Howland honor Ucla or the Wooden legacy? He’s a pompous, self-righteous jerk. He’s running the program into the ground. Can’t wait until he’s gone.

          • senatorgassi

            Let me be a little clearer. One of my uncles still holds a football record he set in the early thirties that will most likely never be broken; his pas touchdown record of ninety three yards was only broken in the mid nineties. My other uncle was one of Jackie Robinson’s first baseball coaches; he was also captain of the football team. My grandmother often feed the football team at her house, When she died the last thing she asked the doctor was the score of the UCLA Stanford game the day before. On hearing they lost she said in broken English “those bums”-she new disappoint of coaches and teams (check those early football records)..but she loved them and couldn’t think of wishing for a loss. I went to UCLA from 66-74 and new pretty fair basketball players who went to school with me then. It;s not hard to believe that some share some of your critique of Howland. Bill Walton hasn’t been shy on air. It is hard to believe that any of the people I’ve referred to, including John Wooden, are hoping for UCLA to lose. Of course, I’m not certain about this and there’s a long list of coach I’ve had some trouble with so I understand your disappointment with Howland to the point of wishing him gone. I just don’t have it in me to wish for UCLA to lose— Probably my grandmother’s doing making me weak willed…but I don’t think she scrubbed floors at night to put her sons through UCLA, breeding an undying passion for the school (in them and me) to facilitate the capacity to wish for a loss. I’ve rambled far too long and I apologize. Wishing for a UCLA loss was not a seed sown in our family. I’ve heard the sentiment expressed at corporate levels, frequently at SC, but, no thanks.

          • drakejr

            Pompous, self-righteous jerk? Pot meet kettle.

    • http://twitter.com/thejackwang Jack Wang

      Yes, Bruins get a two-seed if both win. Guaranteed a three-seed with a loss.