I have no idea what’s going to happen to UCLA tonight. The No. 25 Bruins kick off at 7:30 p.m. and could find their groove again against 14th-ranked Arizona — romping out to their most convincing win of the season. They could completely implode in a turnover-filled blowout. They could fall just short, or squeak by in yet another close effort.
Anything is possible!
What to watch at the Rose Bowl as UCLA tries to fix its own recent foot-shooting habits:
UCLA offense vs. Arizona defense: Brett Hundley has lost a fumble in three straight games now, and can’t afford another one in a game that could knock the Bruins out of the race for the Pac-12 South. Tasked with trying to pop the ball out from Hundley’s grip is linebacker Scooby Wright III, who has turned himself into college football’s resident expert in this particular field.
Wright has turned himself from a two-star recruit into one of the conference’s hardest hitters. He leads the country with five forced fumbles, his biggest one coming against Marcus Mariota to clinch the Wildcats’ upset of Oregon. He is also third in the Pac-12 in sacks (8) and second in tackles for loss (14), and is the key to the front of a 3-3-5 scheme that is only giving up 3.88 yards per carry.
Establishing the run will be key for UCLA, which is good given the roll that Paul Perkins has been on recently. The redshirt sophomore needs four more yards to become the 13th Bruin to rush for 1,000 yards, and has averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per carry in just one game this season. Arizona’s only loss of the season happened when it gave up 239 yards and three touchdowns to USC’s Buck Allen. The Wildcats have only allowed one other team to average more than 4.0 yards per carry, and needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal in that game.
The Arizona defense is also vulnerable through the air, ranking bottom-three in the conference in most statistical categories. Most glaring is that it allows the highest completion percentage (66.0) to opposing quarterbacks in the Pac-12. The Wildcats will almost certainly try and take away Hundley’s deep option, as other teams have done for the past few weeks.
Edge: UCLA
UCLA defense vs. Arizona offense: UCLA has struggled against mobile quarterbacks all season long, and they won’t get much of a break with Anu Solomon. The redshirt freshman has one of the conference’s surprise performers after winning the starting job in late August, and a perfect fit in Rich Rodriguez’s spread. Solomon isn’t a particularly dynamic runner — 64 carries and 191 yards on the season — moves well enough to open up the offense.
“It’s amazing to see his maturity and his understanding of this offense,” said Bruin defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. “The whole quarterback run-pass option just goes to another level with this guy. It really becomes like the quadruple option. It’s dive, it’s pitch, it’s quarterback run, and on the run he can throw it.”
Solomon also has a pair of dependable backfield options in freshman Nick Wilson and senior Terris Jones-Grigsby, a pair of runners that mostly work between the tackles. Injuries have slowed their effectiveness in the last couple of weeks, but they still have 998 yards and 10 touchdowns on a roughly 60/40 workload split.
Former Texas transfer Cayleb Jones has turned into a No. 1 target in his first season in Tucson, with 670 yards and seven touchdowns on 46 catches. His play has bumped senior Austin Hill, a former 1,000-yard receiver, down to a solid secondary option (top-15 in the conference with 408 yards and four scores).
Arizona hasn’t been held below 450 total yards of offense this season, a total that three Pac-12 teams have already eclipsed against the Bruins. Maybe UCLA’s defense generates more of a pass rush as sophomore defensive end Takkarist McKinley learns more and more of the playbook, it still must contend with an experienced offensive line that has only allowed 15 sacks this season.
Edge: Arizona
Special teams: Arizona is middling in punt return coverage (11.20 yards per attempt) and a little above average in kickoff return coverage (19.26 yards), but Ishmael Adams hasn’t made a huge impact on special teams for UCLA in the last few weeks. Since racking up 264 yards on his first nine kickoff returns in conference play, teams have either been able to bottle him on those returns or avoided kicking to him entirely.
Still, it takes just one errant punt or kick for a potentially game-breaking play, and freshman receiver Mossi Johnson has proven himself a threat there too.
The Wildcats do have a significant edge at punter. Drew Riggleman is second in the FBS at 47.04 yards per attempt, and has placed eight of 26 tries inside the 20. Kicker Casey Skowron is a bit spottier. He is 14-of-19 on field goal attempts, including a miss from 27 yards out.
Edge: Arizona, slightly
Prediction: UCLA plays better than it has in a month, but its defense comes up one stop short against an explosive Arizona offense. Arizona 38, UCLA 35.