With a spot in the Pac-12 Championship on the line, UCLA will try to get its first win against Stanford since 2008. A few things to watch, plus a score prediction …
How will Stanford’s offense fare without Ty Montgomery? First guess is not well. Quarterback Kevin Hogan is the quintessential game manager, one that was more than sufficient for the Cardinal when it had a powerful run game to lean on. Stanford is on track to finish with a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2007; losing its most explosive player to a shoulder injury is only going to limit the offense even further.
Montgomery was Hogan’s most reliable target, and the recipient of more than a quarter of the team’s total receptions. At 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, he would have been a load to bring down once he got into the secondary.
Can UCLA’s defense maintain pressure? Hogan only threw at least 20 passes in seven games last season. This year, he’s already hit that mark in nine games, at topped 30 passes in three straight games in October. Not coincidentally, Stanford lost two of those games, beating only lowly Washington State.
Hogan isn’t a quarterback that is going to put a team on his back, and it’s no surprise that his pass attempts are trending down again (20 against Cal). But his team also isn’t as able to protect him this year. Stanford has given up more than 20 sacks for the first time since 2008, which isn’t a bad total number, but looks worse when you consider that the Cardinal run a slower tempo than the rest of the Pac-12.
Meanwhile, UCLA’s defensive line is coming together at the right time, notching a season-high six sacks against USC. Owamagbe Odighizuwa is becoming the dynamic pass rusher he looked like he would be during camp, and starting to get the attention of more scouts. JUCO transfer Takkarist McKinley is becoming more and more comfortable as well, which allows the unit to play around with different looks.
How will the Cardinal front seven handle Brett Hundley’s running ability? Stanford’s defense doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses, but its strength, as usual lies up front. Defensive end Henry Anderson and linebacker A.J. Tarpley are the veterans in the defense. The former leads the team with 11.5 tackles for loss, six sacks and nine quarterback hurries, while the latter has 71 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and two sacks. Linebacker Blake Martinez has also turned into a versatile player, leading the team with 92 tackles and three interceptions.
Combined with a solid secondary, Stanford has allowed just 5.4 yards per pass attempt, tied for third-best in the FBS. But if Hundley can open up the game with some big runs early, that could open up the passing game as well. The Cardinal have given up more than 30 points just once this season, in a 45-16 loss to Oregon, and that was a game in which Marcus Mariota averaged a season-high 9.44 yards per carry — good for 85 yards and two touchdowns.
If Hundley can find holes when the pocket breaks down, that’ll make everything easier on the Bruins.
Can the Bruins convert on third down? Stanford is slower than most teams in college football, having run just 723 plays this season (last in the Pac-12, 108th in the FBS). Six Pac-12 teams, including the Bruins, rank in the top 15 nationally.
That means there’s less room for error for UCLA, which is converting 43.35 percent of third downs (fourth in Pac-12). Stanford is limiting opponents to 35.63 percent.
“When you play these guys, because of what they do offensively, there’s such a premium on possessions,” said UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone. “It’s not like where you play these tempo teams, and we all get friggin’ 18 possessions — you screw a few up and, ‘Oh, it’s no big deal.’
“Here, you’ve got to keep yourself on the field. To me, third downs are a huge deal with these guys.”
Will special teams be a factor? Montgomery’s absence also limits Stanford’s biggest threat on special teams. He wasn’t anywhere close to matching his huge kick return totals in 2013 (1,091 yards, two touchdowns), but his 25.24 per-return average was still good for third-best in the conference.
The matchup is a bit of a wash everywhere else. Both UCLA and Stanford have been fairly effective in punt/kick return coverage. Ben Rhyne and Matt Mengel rank ninth and 11th in the Pac-12 in average yards per punt. Ka’imi Fairbairn’s inconsistency from distances are well known at this point, but Cardinal kicker Jordan Williamson has missed a pair of 26-yarders this season.
Prediction: It doesn’t hold the same weight given the state of Stanford football this season, but UCLA finally gets its first win against David Shaw. The Bruins’ defense puts in a shutdown performance, and the offense gets enough going against the best defense it has yet seen. UCLA 28, Stanford 20.