How is the 2015 Pac-12 Tournament field shaping up?

p12 tourney

The Pac-12 Tournament is a little more than a week away, so it’s a good time to look at how the bracket will shake out heading into the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

Below are the current conference standings, along with each team’s outlook and remaining schedule (plus kenpom.com win probabilities). The tie-breaking rules are here, if anyone wants to figure out all the possible scenarios in the Pac-12’s weird, muddled middle.

1. Arizona (14-2) — 3/5 vs. Cal (97%), 3/7 vs. Stanford (92%)
Arizona has already clinched the top seed in the Pac-12 Tournament.

2. Utah (12-4) — 3/5 at Washington State (91%), 3/7 at Washington (86%)
Utah’s chance at a regular-season title slipped away when it lost to the Wildcats last Saturday. The Utes remain a strong bet to finish second barring an unthinkable collapse on its final road trip.

3. Oregon (12-5) — 3/4 at Oregon State (55%)
The Ducks have clinched at least third, and still have a chance to steal the No. 2-seed away from Utah. If they finish with the same record, Oregon holds the head-to-head tiebreaker due to its 69-58 upset of the Utes on Feb. 22.

4. UCLA (10-7) — 3/4 vs. USC (87%)
Even if the Bruins somehow implode in their regular-season finale, they will likely remain in fourth place due to their head-to-head tiebreaker against Stanford.

5. Stanford (9-7) — 3/5 at ASU (43%), 3/7 at Arizona (8%)
Even if Stanford wins out, it wouldn’t move up in the standings unless UCLA also loses to USC. If the Cardinal split their Arizona trip, they will stand alone in fifth. If they lose out, a few tiebreaker scenarios would emerge.

In a three-way tie with Arizona State and Oregon State, the Cardinal should get the No.-5 seed due to the collective head-to-head tiebreaker: they would be 2-1 against the other two teams, while ASU would be 2-2 and OSU would be 1-2. (Stanford would also hold a head-to-head edge in the event of a very unlikely three-way tie with Oregon State and Cal.)

If Stanford loses out, Arizona State wins out, and Oregon State loses to Oregon, the Cardinal and Sun Devils would tie for fifth. ASU would get the edge here even though it went 1-1 against Stanford head-to-head; that’s because the Sun Devils also split against top-seeded Arizona, while the Cardinal lost twice.

6. Oregon State (8-9) — 3/4 vs. Oregon (45%)
Best case scenario for Oregon State is to stay at the No.-6 seed. That would pair the Beavers with likely No. 11-seed Washington in the first round, and the Ducks in the quarterfinals.

7. Cal (7-9) — 3/5 at Arizona (3%), at 3/7 ASU (19%)
It’s difficult to imagine the Bears beating either Arizona or Arizona State, given that they lost to both at home by 58 combined points in January.

8. Arizona State (7-9) — 3/5 vs. Stanford (57%), 3/7 vs. Cal (81%)
As broken down in the blurb for Stanford, Arizona State could vault three spots into to the No. 5-seed if: a) it wins out, b) the Cardinal out, and c) Oregon State loses to Oregon.

9. Colorado (6-10) — 3/5 at Washington (37%), 3/7 at Washington State (50%)
The Buffaloes’ only true road win all season required three overtimes at USC. Tad Boyle is a good coach, but this doesn’t look like a group that can replicate the postseason run it made in 2012.

10. Washington State (6-10) — vs. Utah (9%), vs. Colorado (50%)
The Cougars could be an interesting dark horse at the MGM Grand. WSU isn’t a very good team, but it has enough talent to knock off a higher seed in the first round if the opponent falls into an up-and-down pace.

11. Washington (4-12) — 3/5 vs. Colorado (63%), 3/7 vs. Utah (14%)
The Huskies have lost nine of their last 10 and look like the worst team in the Pac-12. UW could fall into 12th place if it loses out and USC upsets UCLA, but a Trojan victory at Pauley Pavilion seems improbable, to say the least.

12. USC (3-14) — 3/4 at UCLA (13%)
Jordan McLaughlin will likely need surgeries on both shoulders, and will be out for an estimated five or six months. USC loses 12.1 points per game, 4.5 assists per game, 3.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals.