Q&A: March Madness edition — 3/24/15 Answers

Q: What is the over/under on the number of times CBS/Tru/ESPN will reference “Heart….Break….City” between Wednesday and game time?

A: My very scientific analysis puts it at 27.

Q: Snowball’s chance in hell of beating Gonzaga, a team which Mark Few states is the best he has coached?

A: kenpom.com gives UCLA a 23 percent chance of pulling the upset, which feels right to me. I don’t think the Bruins really have an answer for Kyle Wiltjer, though.

Q: Do you lend credence to the sentiment UCLA should not have been selected to participate in this year’s tourney?

A: Talking purely about the quality of basketball the Bruins were playing at the end of the season, I think it’s clear they deserved to be in the field. But there were clear questions about their overall resume — particularly their inability to win on the road — which is why I, like many others, didn’t think they would actually earn a spot come Selection Sunday.

I think UCLA proved it deserved a spot by beating SMU. Goaltending call or not, the Bruins outplayed the Mustangs for most of the game before giving up 19 unanswered points. (Still crazy to look at that number!) Beating UAB isn’t particularly impressive since the Bruins were so much more talented, but you do what you need to get to the Sweet 16.

Q: Playing the “what if” game: What if the goaltending wasn’t called? SMU tips the shot ball by Alford, and Kevon Looney gets the rebound.

Then what…?
Looney put back, now 59-59 with 10 secs to go. SMU calls TO, runs last play?

A: That’s probably what happens, with the Mustangs again going to Nic Moore like they did in real life. I think the more interesting scenario is if Yanick Moreira doesn’t jump to tip that ball at all. The shot looked on track for the rim, and might have bounced out beyond Looney’s reach. Then … well, who knows what happens from there?

Q: While it’s been a pleasant if not unexpected run to the Sweet 16 this year, is it fair to state there will be greater expectations on Coach Alford next year? Though the Bruins lose Powell and presumably Looney to the NBA, returning players and incoming recruits would seemingly give Coach Alford a relatively deep & interchangeable rotation of Alford-Hamilton-Holiday-Ali-Parker-Walsh-Goloman-Bolden-Allen for 2015-16.

A: I think getting to the Sweet 16 is overachieving a bit even considering how the team is playing this month. In my mind, they look like a round-of-32-caliber team that lucked into drawing 14th-seeded UAB instead of No. 3-seed Iowa State. But hey, maybe they would have upset the Cyclones too. Can’t say for sure.

Alford has made back-to-back Sweet 16s, but he’s also benefited a little bit from drawing double-digit seeds in the round of 32 for two years straight. I don’t think he’s proven yet that he’s capable of taking a program past regularly making regional semifinals.

Looking at next year, that’s a decent core that returns. It’s one that should be able to finish top-three or top-two in the conference, especially with how much Utah might lose (Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl). But it also doesn’t look like the making of a really scary team unless the coaching staff lands one more big-time recruit.

Q: How would you evaluate Steve Alford’s in-game coaching abilities?

A: Maybe average to slightly above-average as far as major conference coaches go. No memorably bad decisions come to mind right now, though I don’t quite agree with his policy of calling late-game timeouts to set up his defense.

Q: Does any other conference have as many schools in the Sweet 16 as the Pac 12?

A: The ACC has the most with five: Duke, Notre Dame, UNC, Louisville, North Carolina State. The Pac-12 is second with three (Arizona, UCLA, Utah), while the Big Ten (Michigan State, Wisconsin) and Big 12 (Oklahoma, West Virginia) each have two. The lone wolves are the SEC (Kentucky), Missouri Valley Conference (Wichita State), West Coast Conference (Gonzaga), and Big East (Xavier).

Q: What happened to Jonah Bolden? Wasn’t he cleared to start playing months ago?

A: No, he was cleared to start practicing, not to start playing. He will be eligible to play next season. He could elect to go pro rather than return to UCLA, but I think he comes back given that his draft stock isn’t at Dante Exum-like levels.

Q: What do you think about Ben Howland’s hiring at MSU?

A: I think it’s a good hire for Mississippi State, although I would have liked to see what Howland could do now at a bigger name school. I’m sure there are lower expectations for him out there after how he ended at UCLA and his ensuing two-year stint out of the game, so it’s a good chance for him to prove he can rebuild a program.

Q: Do you know when Jaylen Brown is expected to commit and what are chances actually with him? And same questions for Ivan Rabb.

There was talk a while ago that Jaylen Brown would announce at the McDonald’s All-American Game on April 1, but it seems like he’s taking his time with his decision. I don’t think Rabb ever set a date, and both could wait until the signing period actually starts on April 15. UCLA isn’t out of it for either, but also shouldn’t be considered a favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised if both go elsewhere.

Q: Any idea what is happening with offensive line coach Adrian Klemm? Will he be back soon?

A: Nothing concrete as of right now. I don’t expect him back for spring practice, and best case scenario would probably be a return before the season.