The hype is gathering again for UCLA, ranked as high as it’s ever been during the Jim Mora era and looking as capable as any other team in a wide-open Pac-12.
The No. 7 Bruins are set to host Arizona State at 4:30 p.m. Saturday, considered a trap game only because that’s the cliche when a superior team is facing an obviously lesser one.
Working in UCLA’s favor are two factors: It has a bye week after this, so there isn’t much to peek forward to; and coaches and players have lambasted the defense’s performance in Tucson despite a 56-30 win, putting an additional chip on the Bruins’ collective shoulder.
Barring a significant collapse for the Bruins (4-0, 1-0), the struggling Sun Devils (2-2, 0-1) don’t look like the team that will spoil their perfect start.
When UCLA has the ball
The offense has been as about as potent as anyone could have hoped heading into the season, with freshman quarterback Josh Rosen capably guiding a crew of veterans into the end zone.
UCLA’s primary hiccups have come in the red zone. While it sits just outside the national top 25 in yards per game (482.5), it ranks just No. 71 in red-zone conversion. Meanwhile, Rosen has hit speed bumps as well, looking like an NFL-ready passer in his career debut against Virginia before slowing down against UNLV and BYU.
Offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone thinks he has the answer.
“It seems like when we go tempo, when we spread out and he’s reacting, he really has a great feel for the game,” he said. “I think sometimes when we’re in there, we’ve got two backs and we’re trying to pound the ball — he’s maybe looking at too much.”
Maybe the best thing for Rosen to do is take it a little easier on his arm. Next to him in the backfield is Paul Perkins, the Pac-12’s reigning rushing champion and a back who is coming off a career-best three touchdowns against the Wildcats. No one would blame him for handing off the ball a few more times a game.
Arizona State’s defense will likely try to blitz Rosen as much as possible, unless head coach Todd Graham deviates from his M.O. The problem is the Sun Devils haven’t been as active as they were a year ago. After ranking top-25 in forced turnovers through the past three seasons — including fifth in the country in 2013 — they’ve fallen to No. 58 with just six takeaways.
Edge: UCLA
When Arizona State has the ball
For three games in 2014, Mike Bercovici looked like Arizona State’s savior. Filling in for injured starter Taylor Kelly, the quarterback completed 92 of 146 passes for 1,243 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. Helped by a Hail Mary against USC, he won two games and kept the Sun Devils alive in the Pac-12 South race.
His senior season, one that had held so much promise, has not gone as smoothly. After rising to the occasion against conference opponents last fall, he fell flat in a rematch against the Trojans, completing just 52.3 percent of his passes for no touchdowns and a pick.
It’s not as if the rest of the Sun Devils are giving him much help. The offensive line is starting newcomers at right and left tackle. Running back Demario Richard leads the conference with 615 yards from scrimmage, but D.J. Foster has yet to find his rhythm in the ASU offense. Only the fourth NCAA player to reach 2,000 rushing and receiving yards for his career, the receiver hasn’t found the same opportunities without star receiver Jaelen Strong to draw some of the attention.
UCLA’s defense is running into its share of troubles too. This is a unit that has lost starters in defensive lineman Eddie Vanderdoes, linebacker Myles Jack and cornerback Fabian Moreau — each of whom has NFL potential. After the team gave up 353 rushing yards to Arizona, Mora said he was “sick to my stomach.”
But unless the Bruins suffer any more significant injuries, it’s hard to see them getting worse on that side of the ball. Tom Bradley earned a reputation as one of college football’s top defensive coordinators at Penn State, and if the team could choose anyone to try and patch this unit together, he’d be near the top of the list. UCLA’s defense likely won’t be elite this season, but it can still do enough to give the offense some room for error.
Edge: UCLA
On special teams
Arizona State is awful at both returning punts and covering opposing punt returns. Running back De’Chavon “Gump” Hayes, a JUCO transfer, is the team’s primary return man, and his eight punt returns have only gone for a total of 46 yards. No one else on the team has done any better, and ASU’s team average (4.0) is second-to-last in the conference and in the bottom 25 nationally.
Their ability to limit punt returns is even worse. The Sun Devils are No. 118 in the FBS in that area, giving up an average of 23.67 yards per punt return, including one to the end zone. UCLA’s Devin Fuller, meanwhile, is 22nd nationally with 131 yards on nine returns.
ASU is much better on kickoffs, ranking top-20 in coverage while being average on returns. Having Zane Gonzalez helps. The junior kicker’s 70 percent rate on touchbacks is good for No. 14 nationally, although he’s been much spottier on field goals. A Lou Groza Award semifinalist in his first two seasons, Gonzalez has only made three of six this fall, missing from 28, 47, and 52 yards out. His longest make this year was a 24-yarder against New Mexico.
Edge: UCLA
Prediction: UCLA 45, Arizona State 34. The Sun Devils are at a crossroads in their season, and will be more desperate for a win. Still, the talent discrepancy tilts too heavily in favor of the Bruins.
RELATED:
» Paul Perkins might be under the radar, but he’s a star in UCLA’s backfield.
» Josh Rosen is developing a stronger connection with Jordan Payton.
» Ka’imi Fairbairn has flaws as a kicker, but he’s been great on kickoffs.
» Running quarterbacks have flustered UCLA’s defense even since last season.