For the first time this season, No. 18 UCLA is the underdog.
This is not without good reason. For all that he has accomplished with the Bruins, Jim Mora has thumped repeatedly into the same stubborn wall: Stanford. The fourth-year head coach has lost to the Cardinal four times in three years: by 18 and three points in 2012, when they played back to back in the regular-season finale and the Pac-12 Championship; by 14 points in 2013; and, perhaps most excruciatingly, by 21 points a year ago, a game that cost UCLA a division title.
Today at 7:30 p.m. in Stanford Stadium, Mora gets his fifth crack at breaking the spell. He’ll have to do it against a 15th-ranked Stanford team that looks like the Pac-12 North favorite, and with a defense that has struggled in the wake of three major injuries.
When UCLA has the ball
Stanford’s defense lost essentially its entire starting defensive line and secondary from last year. That turnover means that this is not as dominant a unit as it has been in years past, though it still ranks among the Pac-12’s best.
UCLA (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) will need to establish itself up front. The Bruins’ offensive line underperformed in a loss against Arizona State almost two weeks ago, but this is a veteran unit that should fare better against Cardinal’s trademark physicality than it has in the past.
“That’s not something we see that often in this conference,” said UCLA center Jake Brendel. “Bigger bodies. … Bigger and stronger bodies. We have more skill, more speed.”
Stanford’s linebackers have been productive tacklers, with Blake Martinez leading the conference at 63 — 12 more than anyone else in the Pac-12. The defense hasn’t been as disruptive as it has been in past years, falling to last in the league with six sacks after ranking top-three for five straight years. It has allowed opponents to convert 44.3 percent of third downs, third-to-last in the conference and No. 104 nationally.
The defensive line could be vulnerable. The starting trio of Aziz Shittu, Brennan Scarlett and Solomon Thomas is talented, but the team doesn’t have much depth. Former starter Harrison Phillips tore his ACL at the beginning of the season, while Shittu and Scarlett have struggled with injuries of their own as well. If the Bruins can convert on third downs and run at a high tempo, that could put the Cardinal (4-1, 3-0) on their heels.
Stanford is only a top-40 team against the run (3.58 yards allowed per carry) after ranking fifth nationally last year (3.07), so junior tailback Paul Perkins could set the table for UCLA’s offense. Josh Rosen, who didn’t get a scholarship offer from Stanford despite his five-star status, has also seen week-to-week improvement overall in his debut season, even if his numbers have yo-yoed. Don’t be surprised if he finds holes in an experienced secondary.
“Sometimes, it’s not exponential,” offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone said of the freshman. “But the best coach out there is experience. Every game, he’s getting more and more experience. I think he’s pretty locked in this week.”
Edge: UCLA, slightly
When Stanford has the ball
Kevin Hogan has become a much more efficient passer as a fifth-year senior, and Stanford’s offense has improved accordingly.
The team is averaging 6.72 yards per play, good for No. 15 in the FBS and its highest mark since Andrew Luck left school to become the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft. Hogan is mobile enough to cause trouble for a banged-up UCLA defense that has struggled against running quarterbacks, but his strides as a passer are what expanded the Cardinal’s options. Even when he looked more like a game manager, Hogan had some of his best games against the Bruins, completing 65 of 88 passes for 776 yards, five touchdowns and just one interception across four appearances. This year, his pass efficiency has risen to 169.77 — well above his previous best of 151.64 in 2013.
He also has more talent around him. There’s the effective two-back tandem in Christian McCaffrey and Remound Wright. The former has run for 477 yards in his last three games, while the latter has found his niche as a goal-line specialist, scoring seven touchdowns in the same span. There’s a promising tight end in Austin Hooper, a redshirt sophomore whose 15.4 yards per catch is good for eighth in the Pac-12 and the best at his position. Earlier this week, the 6-foot-4, 248-pound target made the cut on the midseason Mackey Award watch list.
Stanford has long represented a schematic anomaly in the Pac-12, closer in its philosophy to a Big Ten team. That UCLA had a bye week leading up to the game was timed well.
“We don’t see a lot of the things that they do against our own offense,” said defensive coordinator Tom Bradley. “We have to simulate what they do. It’s difficult to get that accomplished in a short period of time.”
Perhaps the most challenging part is matching what Bradley called the Cardinal’s “mass of humanity” up front — one that has been solid even after losing All-American tackle Andrus Peat. Stanford’s five starting linemen each stand at least 6-foot-4 and weigh a combined 1,507 pounds. That makes simulating the Cardinal offense hard for UCLA’s scout team, which is more accustomed to imitating spread-scheme personnel.
Edge: Stanford
On special teams
Ka’imi Fairbairn hit a career-long 53-yard field goal against Arizona State, moving him to above .500 on all-time attempts from 40 yards and beyond. If he can continue to hit from those types of distances, that could make the difference in a big win. Stanford’s Conrad Ukropina has been steady, making seven of eight tries. He’s perfect on his four attempts from 40 yards out.
UCLA’s punting has been less encouraging. The Bruins tried alternating Matt Mengel and Adam Searl against the Sun Devils, and neither was particularly consistent. Searl has since been arrested on suspicion of rape, which leaves Mengel’s league-low 38.05-yard average as the team’s only option. Stanford is relying on redshirt sophomore Alex Robinson, who is averaging a respectable 43.0 yards per punt. Three of his 15 punts have traveled more than 50 yards, and seven have landed inside the 20-yard line.
The Bruins’ punt and kick return coverage has been solid this season, but ASU receiver Tim White found a hole in the latter with a 63-yard return — one stopped by a falling Fairbairn. UCLA will likely return to form on kickoffs, but McCaffrey has served as a dynamic return man for the Cardinal. His 25.57 yards per kickoff return put him fourth in the Pac-12 — right behind UCLA’s Devin Fuller (26.3). Fuller has been far better on punt returns, averaging 14.56 yards to McCaffrey’s 2.75.
Edge: Even
Prediction: Stanford 35, UCLA 24. The Cardinal are currently playing better than the Bruins, and it’s hard to pick the latter given the recent series history.