What to watch: UCLA vs No. 20 Cal

Back in July, UCLA looked at its preseason ranking and sneered. Despite returning a talented defense and almost every offensive starter, the Bruins were picked to finish third in the Pac-12 media poll.

Six games and several injuries later, the team stands at fourth in the division, licking its wounds after back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Stanford. Another loss could erase whatever chance they have left at claiming a spot in the Pac-12 title game.

Here’s what to watch when UCLA hosts No. 20 Cal today at 6 p.m.

When UCLA has the ball

Since his stunning introduction to the college football world, Josh Rosen’s numbers have come back to earth. In his last five games, he has completed less than 55 percent of his passes and averaged below 7.0 yards per attempt. While he’s looked better than those numbers suggest, his penchant for unforced errors could prove especially costly against Cal.

Rosen has thrown seven interceptions in his last five games, with five coming against BYU and Stanford. Those two teams have combined for 13 interceptions this season.

The Bears are tied for fifth in the FBS with 12 picks. That number has helped mask some of the deficiencies in the Cal secondary, which ranks in the bottom half of the conference in opposing completion percentage (57.7) and yards allowed per attempt (7.2).

In other words, Rosen and the rest of the Bruins need to avoid beating themselves.

“We’ve got to protect the football,” said offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone. “We can’t give them easy opportunities, especially with their offense. You don’t want to give those guys any more possessions than they already get.”

UCLA’s own offense could use a few extra possessions. The Bruins are only converting 38.4 percent of third downs, down from 43.1 a year ago. A line that has given up only seven sacks has also gotten beaten up: offensive guard Alex Redmond and left tackle Conor McDermott suffered hand and knee injuries a week ago, and the latter is questionable to play. If McDermott can’t suit up, the team will likely trot out redshirt freshman Kolton Miller to face a defense that has registered 19 sacks. Defensive end Kyle Kragen is responsible for five of those, but 12 other Bears have notched at least one this season.

The good news is that Paul Perkins could be set for a big day. The star tailback averaged 7.43 yards per carry against Stanford, and Cal allowed Utah’s Devontae Booker to turn his 34 carries into 222 yards and two scores.

Edge: UCLA

When Cal has the ball

Jared Goff might be the best quarterback west of the Rocky Mountains, hands down, but he’s not flawless either. Against the Utes, he threw a career-high five interceptions.

What’s telling is that he still made big-time throws that gave the Bears a chance to win on their final drive. The junior doesn’t have a stout offensive line in front of him or a workhorse back to lean on, but he and his stable of receivers can usually do enough to keep a defense on its heels — and make most score deficits seem a little smaller.

On paper, UCLA looks like its up to the challenge, ranking in the top 10 nationally in yards allowed per attempt (5.5) and in the top 25 in opposing completion percentage (52.8). However, this could be skewed by the fact that very few teams have found the need to pass against the Bruins, given that they’ve surrendered 854 yards on 154 carries in three games since losing three defensive starters.

“I think sometimes, pass statistics are the least reliable statistics,” UCLA coach Jim Mora said. “If teams are having success running against you, they’re not going to pass much. Or let’s say, you get some games where you get a big lead, and your opponent has to pass every down. Then, all of a sudden, their pass statistics become inflated and yours don’t look quite as good.”

UCLA could dial up a bit of pressure to compensate — particularly against an offensive line that’s surrendered 15 sacks — but defensive coordinator Tom Bradley has stuck to his “bend don’t break” principles so far this season. And with outside linebacker Deon Hollins looking questionable to play with a knee injury, the Bruins’ banged-up defense could be even more shorthanded.

Cal will likely take some shots downfield. The Bears’ have thrown 244 passes this season to their 225 runs, but are averaging a pedestrian 4.33 yards on the ground. Daniel Lasco, a 1,000-yard rusher last fall, strained his hip in Week 2 and only has 11 carries in his last two games. Without him, Cal has sputtered on the ground: After scoring 11 rushing touchdowns in its first four games, it has only totaled two in its last two outings.

Former high school track star Khalfani Muhammad leads the Bruins with 374 yards on 43 carries this season, but he’s not built to be an every-down back. The 6-foot-1, 230-pound Vic Enwere provides a change of pace, and is responsible for five of the Bears’ 13 rushing scores this season.

Edge: Cal

On special teams

Will Kenneth Walker III start punting? The speedy but slippery-fingered receiver started practicing there this week, reprising a role that he once filled at Richmond Kennedy High in the Bay Area. It’s unclear how effective he’ll be if he actually takes the field, but starting punter Matt Mengel is currently averaging a conference-worst 38.0 yards per punt. Mengel’s worst attempt against Stanford was a 32-yarder that went out of bounds at the Bruins’ own 42-yard line, setting up a three-play, 75-second scoring drive.

Cal’s Cole Leininger has been consistent, averaging 41.5 yards per punt and landing seven of his 17 attempts inside the 20. The Bears’ troubles have come on the other end of special teams, with a league-worst kickoff return average of 20.1 yards and a 4.5-yard punt return average that ranks 10th in the Pac-12.

UCLA’s punt return coverage is still second-best in the FBS, but its kickoff return coverage has fallen apart. Long returns by both Arizona State’s Tim White and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey have sunk the Bruins to second-to-last in the country (29.8 yards).

Ka’imi Fairbairn has the clear edge on field goals. UCLA’s senior is nine of 10 this season, with his only miss coming from 50 yards out. Cal’s Matt Anderson is six of nine overall, with misses coming from 35, 40, and 44 yards.

Edge: Cal, slightly

Prediction: UCLA 45, Cal 42. The Bruins have not played well recently, but they get to return home and play a team that doesn’t present the same matchup problems that Stanford did.

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» Can Jim Mora and the Bruins bounce back after another set of October losses?
» Jared Goff presents a new challenge for an untested UCLA secondary.