“Colorado is definitely an underrated team,” receiver Jordan Payton said this week. “People sleep on them a lot.”
Will UCLA? The No. 24 Bruins are back in position to win the Pac-12 South, but need five straight victories to do it. The Buffaloes don’t look like an imposing hurdle, not after an in-conference losing streak that finally ended at 14 games last weekend.
Las Vegas sportsbooks now has UCLA listed as a consensus 23-point favorite. Here’s what to watch in today’s noon kickoff at the Rose Bowl.
When UCLA has the ball
No Pac-12 team has totaled fewer than 200 rushing yards against it this season, and through all eight games, the Buffaloes have surrendered 1,676 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. Only 19 teams in the FBS give up more than Colorado’s 5.06 yards allowed per carry.
UCLA’s Paul Perkins is one of the conference’s best running backs, but the Bruins might not want to overwork him given the knee injury that forced him out of last week’s win over Cal. While Perkins is expected to suit up, look for backup Nate Starks and freshmen Soso Jamabo and Bolu Olorunfunmi to get some carries.
But the Buffs are at least noticeably better than they were the past few years, when they ranked near among the worst in the country. First-year defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt has installed a scheme that relies more on man coverage, and one that has better utilized the existing roster. Look for him to try and throw different pressures at freshman quarterback Josh Rosen.
Defensive back Chidobe Awuzie has been the biggest beneficiary of the coaching change, racking up a team-high four sacks as well as six pass breakups and two interceptions. He and the rest of the Buffaloes have registered 14 takeaways this season, making at least one in every game. They’ll likely need more than that to make it a close game.
It’s interesting to wonder how Colorado’s defense might look at full health. Safety Ryan Moeller, who is third on the team with 47 tackles, is out with a concussion. Linebacker Addison Gillam, a former Freshman All-American, has had two knee surgeries this fall after playing just two games. Junior defensive end Tyler Henington was projected to start before he broke his ankle in August, his second season-ending injury in as many years. All-conference honorable mention Josh Tupou was dismissed this offseason.
Edge: UCLA
When Colorado has the ball
UCLA has had trouble against running quarterbacks, but Colorado’s Sefo Liufau is a bit newer to his dual-threat role. With a backfield that doesn’t have a clear No. 1 tailback, the junior has been asked to grind out crucial yards. He’s averaging only 21 yards per game, but has five touchdowns after going scoreless on the ground for two seasons.
“When he tucks it, he does a really fine job of finding the sticks, getting to the first down,” UCLA defensive coordinator Tom Bradley said. “If you watch him, it seems to me he knows when to put it away real quickly when he doesn’t have what he wants.”
Injuries haven’t helped either. Liufau has played through shoulder pain this season, which could explain his lackluster passing numbers. His 61.7 percent completion rate is a step back from last season (65.3), and he’s only thrown for nine touchdowns. He had 23 (!) touchdown passes through his first eight games in 2014, and finished with 28. He hasn’t faced stiff competition either: Three teams rank bottom-30 nationally in opponent pass rating.
Liufau isn’t the only player who might be hurting. The team lost left tackle Jeromy Irwin to a torn ACL in September, and could also be without his replacement, Sam Kronshage. Shay Fields, the team’s most explosive receiver, is questionable with an ankle injury — which means the secondary can focus even more on senior Nelson Spruce, who is four catches away from the Pac-12 career record.
Running back Michael Adkins II ran for 107 yards and a touchdown against UCLA last season, and opened this season with 209 yards and three scores in his first two games. He’s missed five full games with a hamstring injury, and isn’t in line to return. The backfield load is now split between Phillip Lindsay (5-8, 180) and Christian Powell (6-0, 235), who have combined for 780 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Bruins’ defense has issues, but it did well enough against a Cal offense that had a lot more weapons than Colorado.
Edge: UCLA
On special teams
Ka’imi Fairbairn is kicking as well as anyone in the country, and receiver Kenneth Walker is pulling double duty as a punter. What a world we live in.
That Fairbairn has been so effective on long field goals might make UCLA more conservative on some fourth-and-short decisions. Jim Mora hasn’t been very aggressive in such situations, and having a guy who can kick 60-yard field goals likely makes him more eager to take the three points.
Walker looked decent as a starting punter, though he only got two tries. The Bruins’ third punt last week went to Rosen. At this rate, Matt Mengel might never get off the bench again.
Defensive back Ishmael Adams has only returned three kickoffs and one punt this season. With Devin Fuller (head trauma) looking questionable to play, Adams could revert back to the special teams star he was in late 2013 and early 2014. Colorado is perfectly middling in both kick and punt return coverage, ranking fifth and sixth in the Pac-12 in the two categories.
Buffs punter Alex Kinney is averaging 39.6 yards per attempt. Among Pac-12 players who have appeared in two-thirds of their team’s games with at least 3.6 punts per outing, that puts him above … only Mengel.
Edge: UCLA
Prediction: UCLA 41, Colorado 27. It’s hard to see the Bruins letting down, at home, against a team that’s nearly as banged up.