Does Draft Value Matter?

ADOREE.HOLIDAY.NEBRASKAOne thing to note in recent years is how little feedback from the NFL seems to matter to underclassmen. During the Pete Carroll era, it seemed like a big deal when the NFL would send USC its evaluations and perhaps influence a player’s decision.

But this year, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Adoree Jackson seemed to care less about it. And Jackson is not listed in any mock drafts I’ve seen as a first-round pick. Last year, Su’a Cravens pretty much made up his mind well before the evaulation process. I think all of those players believed they were so good that they would become successful NFL players no matter where they got drafted.

But even players like Nickell Robey and Dion Bailey, who went undrafted, turned pro. It just seems like players simply go when they want to these days. And it’s still worth it financially. Cody Kessler wasn’t an underclass but he was a third-round pick and got a $3,4 million, four-year deal from the Browns. Not bad.

55 thoughts on “Does Draft Value Matter?

  1. There’s only so many NFL roster spots and no guarantees.
    Players have learned not to base their decision on someone’s twitter mock draft.

    It’s very similar to the ranking system we have in college. 5 star busts and 3 star future NFL hall of famers.
    The only people accountable are the players, not anyone doing evaluations, mock drafts or rankings.

  2. Some universities do better retaining their NFL eligible players than others. USC has done a notoriously poor job in this department since the arc of Pete’s career. Part of it may be due to the fact that the ONLY thing that really motivates a great player to stick around is a chance at a National Championship —-and, fan excitement notwithstanding, USC players don’t see one on the horizon.

    • SC just won the rose bowl, finished ranked #3, will most likely begin next year ranked in the top 5, and returns their best player (possibly best in the country) at the most important position, but they don’t see a national championship on the horizon?

          • They’ll come close, Christian. But there are just too many holes to fill. Be happy with a Pac 12 Championship.

          • What holes? The only major one in my mind is at DT. SC has plenty of depth to fill the voids left by JuJu and Rogers at WR. The 3 OL they lost aren’t anything special. Look no further than their consistently abysmal run blocking. If anything, I expect SC to better along the OL. But if SC wins a P12 championship as you suggest, then wouldn’t that also mean they’re in the hunt for the CFP and thus a national championship?

          • Yes, we’re definitely in the hunt. And (I’m reading between the lines here, Christian) if you turn out to be right and we get to and win the Championship next year, I’ll be the happiest little boy in Hawaii.
            Fight On!

          • I would love to say yes.. Maybe…but two more years, things will be rolling .. This is Helton actual real first recruiting class..

          • No not ‘holes’ what you’re alluding to while not stating it is the coaching won’t be skilled enough to achieve a ‘NC’.

            The schedule is very smooth save the road game at Notre Dame. I don’t see WA improving over this year and I expect the same (loss) when they play USC.

          • Both, Alv. We have holes and, as Christian points out, we have some great people to fill those holes. So —even better team next year? Right? But it’s not that simple. The 2016 team got something beyond talent from several people who won’t be around in 2017—-something called ‘leadership.’ So, even though we’ll be able to fill the holes left by a fantastic running back, two great receivers, two very dependable tackles, a magnificent corner, etc., etc., —- who the hell knows if the 2017 team chemistry and killer instinct will be the same? And, here is where the coaching part comes in. And, as good as they are, I’m still not sure if Helton and Company are completely up to the task. Bottom line: I suspect we’ll be very, very good —but not quite there yet.

          • Yup – too bad there wasn’t ‘some’ leadership wasn’t available prior to AL and Stanford. If the wins were strictly because of Darnhold taking charge then I’m not too worried i.e. Juju and Adoree didn’t make much of an impact in those two losses (AL & Stanford).

            My concern is 2018…I like Helton a truly great guy but he reminds me a lot of Mack Brown

          • Ha! If Clay turns out to be like Mack, we’ll get some good seasons out of ’em before things go very south…….

          • Ha! Very funny, UCLA. [But we’ll be better than that, I promise. For One thing —no Aundrey Walker. For another—no Cyrus Hobbi].

    • I don’t think it’s a matter of doing a bad job at retaining players.
      Most top recruits and players expect to only play college ball 3 years. And that’s exactly the kind of player that come to USC. It’s like that with all the top programs. 3 and done seems to be the standard.

    • I don’t think today’s players care nearly as much about a national championship as the fans, especially older ones, do. Winning used to be a bigger deal. So did making the team. Now most good players want to leave college asap.

      This team is very well set up for a big season and we have the best QB we’ve ever had and some amazing players. That didn’t mean diddly squat to our best underclassmen who are all out of here with second round profiles at best, and possibly worse, especially for Mama.

        • Darnold’s out of here by this time next year. He’ll be ready to move on and as a QB, he’ll be a super high Round 1 pick who will be foregoing a ton more money than these current underclassmen would be passing up.

          I’m gonna treasure every 2017 Darnold snap. As only a 19 year old, He resurrected USC football in only 10 games. I’ve never seen anything like it in the history of Trojan football. What a player!

  3. Changing the subject. It looks like the NCAA will alow a 10th Asst. coach. If they do I hope USC hires a good recruiter and have him or her in charge of recruiting. Alabama and Clemson, to name a few are way ahead of USC.

    • They can do that and it does not have to be in one of the coaching slots. If there is a coach with a sub title of recruiting coordinator, it is in name only, the support staff and grad assistants do most of the work keeping it all straight.

      • Very good Steve. If I’m not mistaken, I think Alabama does that right now. Saban doesn’t recruit outside of Tuscaloosa. So he assigns outside that area to one of the ancillary staff members.

    • Alvarado, Kessler’s performance as the Brown’s starting QB really caught fire his first several games, before taking a dramatic nosedive when the NFL took advantage of his flaws.

    • I still can’t believe Helton let Browne start any games knowing that Browne couldn’t beat out Kessler.

      In hindsight, we all should have known Browne was a bust.

      • Many of us thought Browne should never be starting the ALA game. The view from the cheap seats is often clearer sometimes because we get to ignore certain considerations.

        Browne ended up getting messed over any way. He got basically no good experience and sat after leading USC to the basement. Now he’s exiled to PITT where I doubt he’ll do diddly. At least he has some good SC degrees. He almost Sunk Helton in Sept however. Or should I say Helton almost sunk himself.

  4. Given the short and getting shorter playing careers of most NFL players, the finite number of hits players minds and bodies can withstand and the lack pay college players receive, why not take 3rd round money instead of playing for free? Careers are not guaranteed to last long.

    • Sedrik Ellis comes to mind. Retired from the NFL while still in decent health, went home to give back. Peoples careers are not always about sports.

      • Exactly. Ellis was upfront that he just didn’t want to play football. The training, the effort and time was too much.

  5. Speaking of evals and future value,has anyone ever evaluated the gang at Scout or Rivals or espn or 24×7? as to how their star system ends up working?Seems that we would read about it if they were accurate.I guess one way it is accurate is teams that are mostly 4-5 dominate,etc…but I ask because there are a lot mixed numbers for the athletes….4 on one 3 on another,etc….NFL draft kinda’works out the same ….

  6. If USC hires an additional coach, what you hire. I would go for a passing game coordinator.

  7. The NFL draft is not a guarantee of success. I feel that our draft eligible juniors have proven themselves. Given all of the crazy things that have transpired during their three years in school they would do well in the total dysfunction of an NFL team.
    I wish a four year commitment was normal, but those days are gone forever.

  8. Usc has recruited very well. Jack Jones (Former 5-Star) will step in as the #2 CB and Iman Marshall who had a very good season will have a better season defensively than Adoree Jackson. IMO. Just a feeling based on the progress of Biggies freshman and sophomore seasons. But we also have Ajene Harris who really surprised everyone with the way he caught on to the defensive side of football and he’s only getting better. We’ll miss the all around play of Adoree. The special teams effect he had on games will be an area where we will probably noticed his absence. But we’ll be fine defensively. Don’t forget about Jonathan Lockett, Isiah Langley and Keyshawn Young.

    As for Juju Smith-Schuster. Michael Pittman is ready to play as an every down WR. I’m saying it right now. Don’t be surprised when he has 60 catches 10 TDs or 1000 yards. He’s a serious talent.
    And lets not forget that we still have Steven Mitchell coming for a 5th year. That’s a nice plus for the offense.
    We also have 5-Star Tyler Vaughns 6-2 180 who redshirted. Reminds people of AJ Green. Look out for Vaughns. Josh Imatorbhebhe 6-2 220 who redshirted. He’s a man already.
    And we still have Velus Jones and Trevon Sidney who both redshirted. We’ll see some new stars born and thrive next season at Wide Receiver.

    • Can’t wait to see who is this years’ Michael Hutchins or Uchenna Nwosu and comes out of nowhere to claim a spot or get significant playing time. I am pulling for LB John Houston, Olujuwon Tucker or Malik Dorton.

      • Me too. I’m gonna say Oluwole Betiku and Conner Murphy. But i would love to see John Houston emerge.
        I heard the other day that Dorton is thinking about transferring. And Olujuwon Tucker is out at the moment for grades so he may be in the doghouse.

      • Lot’s of Under Armour and Army All-Americans. Ucla wouldn’t know anything about that.

  9. Jackson is not a first round guy. He’s not an every down player. His speed should get him a third round maybe 2nd. Special teams and third and long WR/RB is his role. I’d take $3.4 mil over 4 years and walk away with a nice nest egg to move on to the real world.

  10. Great timing by Jackson and the SC staff whether planned or not. This reminds recruits of what an NFL factory the school is. Awesome timing.

    Get a clue, SW

  11. Surely someone as talented as Adoree Jackson, you can’t really blame him for wanting to test himself at the highest level. But “shoulda-coulda-woulda” in him staying another year as a full-time WR with Darnold placing the ball in his hands in an open field? What kind of fear would that have caused in the opposing defenses?
    I just don’t see Adoree as an NFL preferred “physical” DB that will knock a WR on his back or sacrifice his body to take down a bruising RB. Whatever his thinking is, I hope he makes it happen. Good Luck Man!

    • He’s surely not a great CB. Gets beats a lot. Too small.

      Amazing P/KR man and offensive threat on jet sweeps and as a WR – which he didn’t practice much at SC. But Adoree’s a very fast learner and a real team player with great instincts and a knack for big plays.

      I hope he stays injury free and some team finds a way to use him as a point scorer. Big, tough NFL WRs will eat him alive.

      Adoree was made to evade. There’s plenty for him to do in the NFL as long as he doesn’t think he’s gonna out jump every big WR that decides to shut him off from well-thrown balls.

  12. It’d be interesting if SW actually managed to reference anything in these reports. Did they say coming back to work on XYZ would improve draft stock? What does the field look like next for draft-eligible WR/DB/KRs? Do they need to know more about him or do they have enough game film at this to point so that he really doesn’t have a chance of proving much next year?

    For a 20 year old kid, who has probably spent the last 8-9 years of life playing tons of football, to have a chance to at a very high-paying job, whatever the draft stock, has to be incredibly enticing. I find it amazing that any player from any team has the ability to resist the urge to take that leap. Even a fifth or sixth rounder will likely make enough money over the course of 3-4 years (the average career) to get a house and car and a decent savings early in life, and be able go back to school and pay for it when it’s all done.

    I think Adoree made the sensible decision. He had nothing to gain from coming back, in terms of his long term future. Even team-wise, Jack Jones and Ajene and Ykili will be able to step and do well in his absence.

    Same with JuJu, nothing to gain, and I think scouts have their mind made on both of these two. For Damian Mama, the game is so hard on linemen, his odds of playing longer then the age of 26 or 27 are so slim. He should get the decent money while he can, and get out while he’s still young and has his knees and brains. Fight on to all of them.

Comments are closed.