Lots Of 2-3 Stars In NFL Games

NFL.STARS.CHARTHere’s an interesting article by SB Nation on how 68 of the 88 starters in today’s NFC and AFC championship games were three-star, two-star or unrated recruits, as the chart above reflects.

But . . . the article also points out the following: The reason is so few recruits are five-and-four stars. “Five-stars make up less than one percent of Division I recruits, yet five percent of the AFC and NFC Championship starters,” the article states. “Four-stars make up just nine percent of Division I recruits, yet 18 percent of the AFC and NFC Championship starters.”

So, yes, stars do matter.

31 thoughts on “Lots Of 2-3 Stars In NFL Games

  1. Wolf is going to beat it to death.

    It shows to me that players can be devoloped into nfl caliber players with good coaching.

    • steveg, Wolfman does not take into account the minute numbers of 5 stars on each team, far too few to make a resounding difference in the teams overall performance. 4s, 3s, 2s, and the unrated get the job done.

      • Kind of like the 3 stars are the blue collar hard working guy on main street that attains the American dream.

    • A lot of maturity takes place high school senior to NFl .
      In addition the rosters are filled with first to ten yr. Players.Would be interesting to say take all 5 yr + players and break down the *’s

  2. Who ever said stars don’t matter? Of course they do. Duh.

    They just don’t matter as much as Birdcage thinks they do and they fail to account for coaching, player development, staff continuity, injuries, team chemistry, QB proficiency, off-the-field problems, NCAA malfeasance, scheduling, conference affiliation, et al.

    No need to emphasize the obvious Birdcage. No need to continually get lost in the weeds.

    Truth is, SC is recruiting very well and I love the emphasis in the trenches. With the type of athletes coming in, the Trojans can win it all.

    • Wolf (his source) should have kept going.

      Between 2002 and 2010, less than half of 5 star recruits on rivals ended up getting drafted.
      That’s why there’s so few in the NFL.

  3. So then the lesson is that a small to moderate amount of 4 and 5 stars will do.
    But love those 3 stars with corazon!

    • Actually, too may 4/5 stars can be bad for your health (mental and maturity weaknesses are overlooked), especially when they are guys like Jefferson and Price who can’t cut it and belong elsewhere.

  4. Anyone can skew the numbers and stars to make a point. I do think that the way stars are earned- the number of circuits and exposure a player attends being a major contributing factor- isn’t fair and leaves a lot of room for error.

    • Who you going to trust about player evaluation?

      A bunch of 20-30 year old coach wannabees who scratch out a living at 7-on-7 camps and combines and sell info to fans? Or men with extensive NFL and college coaching and evaluation experience who are actually in the recruiting game and have access to info the recruiting services are totally in the dark about.

      The recruiting services are massively inaccurate sometimes. Entertaining and sometimes informative? Sure they are. But nothing to hang your hat on.

      • Good point and totally agree. SC hasn’t had too many three stars over the years numbers wise but there have been some real jewels: JR Tavai, Kevin Ellison, Marcus Martin, Fili Moala, Terrell Thomas, Curtis McNeal I mean those are some ballers. The best of the lot- Clay Matthew Jr.- was a walk on lol.

        • The truth is 1/2 of the five-stars will be disappointing. So if you sign two of those rare creatures, one’s a superstar, like Adoree. I’ll take him any day of the week, of course. But without a bunch of solid 3/4 star types in the trenches and a hugely under-ranked QB like Darnold, you’re still going nowhere with 5-stars.

          • Here are the five stars SC has landed over the past 10 years: (Per Rivals)
            07- Marc Tyler, Chris Gallipo, Joe Mcknight, Kris O’Dowd, and Ronald Johnson.
            08- Tyronn Smith and Matt Khalil
            09-Devon Kennard, Matt Barkley, Patrick Hall and TJ McDonald
            10- Markeith Ambles, Robert Woods, Dillon Baxter, and Kyle Prater
            11- George Farmer
            12- Nelson Agholor, Zach Banner, Jordan Simmons
            13-Leon McQuay, Kenny Bigelow, Su’a, Ty Isaac, and Max Browne
            14- Adoree and Juju
            15- Biggie, John Houston, Rasheem Green, and Porter Gustin

          • I’d say my 50/50 disappointing factor is pretty accurate based on those names. Plenty of big flops there. And some were solid but certainly never great or worthy of the 5-star label.

          • The ’09 class was Carroll’s last class. Up until then, 5 Stars were more than solid for the Trojans. Under Sark and Kiffin, more often then not, 5 Stars didn’t do as well.

          • I wouldn’t say one single player deserved a 5-star from ’07. Nobody there was a great SC player IMHO and guys like Tyler and Gallipo were decent at best.

            Both the ’08 guys were great Trojan OLs I thought. The ’09 class was weird. Kennard was very good. Barkley started great but regressed and became a pick machine. Hall flopped. McDonald was good.

            Interesting stuff.

          • I think Hall tore both ACLs also. McKnight (RIP) could be spectacular at times but just never became the man. The 2010 class flopped majorly.

          • Ya, injuries are always part of why some never pan out. We’ll never know whether Hall would have been any good. McKnight was good but he was never great and certainly not worthy of a 5-star RB label IMHO. It’s very hit or miss with such a small sample size.

            Lots of 3/4 stars become better players than 5 stars. George Farmer was never better than a 3-star player. max. All-hype, all-injury, all get-off-the-bus.

            Simmons and Bigelow are total busts too. Fortunately, SC has others who have stepped in to fill the breach like Stevie T – someone who Birdcage thought was a reach and way below USC’s standards. That was one of his all-time idiot takes.

          • I hope Bigelow makes a Josh Pinkard like recovery and is able to have a productive Senior season.

            Stevie T is arguably the best story of 16.

  5. One could argue that many five stars burn out sooner, aren’t as hungry as lower rated players, have been coddled and pampered by coaches more, and have, in many cases, peaked.

    • You got that right. College coaches need to differentiate 4-5 stars who are good because they work hard – and will continue to in college – and the 4-5 stars who just have natural ability against lesser competition and think college is just a stepping stone to the NFL.

      • Work ethic is the most under-rated aspect of excellence but seems often to be the most overlooked aspect of character by the recruiting services.

        • It is overlooked at the Pro level also. All the truly top players have a lot of “want to” in their game. Manning was a 5 Star & 1st round draft choice. Brady wasn’t highly rated & drafted in the 6th round. Both are considered two of the hardest workers ever to play in the NFL & both are guaranteed HOF. Johnny Manziel didn’t work hard and was a bust. If he would have worked at his profession he may not have been a star; but he would still be in the league. Barkley is severely limited , but he applies himself and that ethic has kept in the league for more years than many would have thought possible.

      • Good point. I wonder which category the 5 stars SC has taken in the last 10 yrs. fall in.

    • Arturo, if both of us graduated from High School Rated 5 Star Football Athletes, at that young age, it would be easy for us to think the World owed us a living.

  6. If things pan out and the Trojans are able to land their primary DT recruiting targets- Jay Tufele and Marlon Tui- it sets up for some major wars in the trenches with Stanford (the Cardinal having landed 5 Star OT Sarrell and Walker themselves).

  7. Stars-Wars

    A kid who is an animal and weighs 280 in high school is going to dominate. But maybe not so at the college level.

    What an inexact science all of this is. I am glad I am not a football talent evaluator.

    And finally–1% of college kids will ever see any money in the NFL. So maybe this career move is not as difficult as becoming a Hollywood star, but it is a long shot at best.

  8. Well it also shows that there just aren’t that many 4&5-stars to go around. And in the west this year this is particularly evident with linemen. It also shows that there are a lot of 3 star guys out there that are underrated and good coaching is able to see their potential and develop them. I’m still not sold that Helton and staff are able to do this, but I feel more confident about it now than I did 5 months ago. Time will tell. If HCCH doesn’t recruit/develop well, he will be gone sooner than later.

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