About The BCS

A scenario to watch for:

USC wins out and moves ahead of Michigan in the BCS rankings. BCS #2 USC plays BCS #1 Ohio State in the BCS championship game. USC wins the game, and the BCS title.

Meanwhile, Michigan remains #2 in the AP poll, behind AP #1 OSU but ahead of AP #3 USC. AP #2 Michigan wins the Rose Bowl against fill-in-the-blank and ascends to AP #1 by virtue of AP #1 OSU's loss to AP #3 USC. Michigan is declared champion by the AP.

It would be 2003 in reverse. USC fans would have to either acknowledge Michigan's share of the championship, renounce USC's own 2003 AP championship, or be hypocrites.

It may not be likely, but it is possible.

Jerry is quite right...USC's strength of schedule and their success with it is unmatched by any other college football team in the nation.

WARNING: THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE CONTAINS MATH.

Right now, Michigan is #2 in five of six computer ratings, with USC #2 in the other. (The highest and lowest computer rankings are tossed out, so only four of the six actually count in the end.) Michigan's overall BCS rating is .9263. USC's is .9188.

If USC's advantage over Michigan in the human polls remains fixed, and USC jumps Michigan in just one of the remaining five computer rankings, Michigan will remain ahead in the overall ranking, .9230 to .9221. If USC jumps Michigan in two of the four computers, the teams would be tied in the computers (each with two 2nds and two 3rds-- see below for a more detailed explanation), and USC's edge in the human polls would put USC ahead overall, .9255 to .9177.

AN EXPLANATION OF THE BCS RANKINGS:

Michigan has received 2,600 of a possible 2,850 points in the Harris poll. (That is, if all voters placed a team at #1 on their ballots, the team would receive 2,850 points.) Divide 2,600 by 2,850 and you get .9123. That is the first component of the BCS rating.

Michigan has received 1,428 of a possible 1,575 points in the USA Today poll. Divide 1,428 by 1,575 and you get .9067. That is the second component of the BCS ranking.

Michigan is ranked 2nd in five computer indexes and 3rd in the other. Throw out the worst-- the one #3-- and the best-- one of the five #2s. The BCS rankings award points to the top 25 in each computer index. The team ranked #1 gets .250, #2 gets .240, and so on. Thus, Michigan, which is #2 in each index after the highest and lowest are thrown out, gets .240 for each of the four. This adds up to .960. That is the third and final component of the BCS ranking.

Add the three components (.9123 + .9067 + .960 = 2.7790) and divide by three to get Michigan's overall BCS rating (.9263).

USC's components are .9196 (Harris), .9168 (USA Today) and .920 (computers-- .230 times four). The sum is 2.7564; divide by three to get USC's overall BCS rating (.9188).

If USC jumps Michigan in one computer index, Michigan's computer component would go down to .950 and USC's would rise to .930. If USC jumps Michigan in two computers, both teams would have .940 computer components.

Interesting, but beating ND and UCLA are not automatic.

I was beginning to think that I was the only one who thought this about OSU's schedule. They played Texas and UM, and missed Sconsin in the B10. The rest of their schedule was a downright plethora of bad teams

Scottie,

Where's to poll DOGG?

Scott do you have a link on where i would find Herbstriets last 5 AP votes for the top 25?

much appreciated.

Being a Trojan in Atlanta is tough duty. The myopic crackers down here think the SEC is the entire football universe. Local radio and TV has been whining about Florida, excusing their cupcake schedules and -- with logic that only a person who still thinks the South won the Civil War -- arguing that Arkansas should get the nod over SC. Fight on!

Good stuff Brian, anyone who wasn't from the b-school or comm enjoyed your comment. Looks like the SC-ND game has some serious meaning this year. Our defense looks stout, lojack has finally shown up. Our coaches deserve a lot of praise for their recruiting, the offensive depth is truly impressive. C.J. who?

as i recall oklahoma in '04 was the greatest team ever ..... of course it didn't finish up quite that way ....did it?? it's not over until the fat lady sings........!!

I'm hoping for one of these nightmare scenarios so other teams learn that putting teams like Southwest New Hampshire State Community College on their schedule. Hey, it might be fun to beat a team 72-0 -- it hurts you in the long run. Yes, Florida, Michigan, Ohio State and Texas, it's not a good idea.

And another thing that I'm getting sick of seeing is how everyone fawns over the SEC. Yes, it's one of the toughest leagues out there, but the PAC-10 isn't too shabby. Right now, only two teams have losing records, and one of those is only 1 game below .500. True, a San Jose State was on the schedule of at least one PAC-10 team, but look at some of the others: Notre Dame (more than just a couple), Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska, etc.

Brian,

Thanks for your wonderful explanation of the BCS rankings, but I couldn't read the whole thing. It contains math. Besides, you've got a lot of "ifs" in there.

If we beat ND and ugla, we're in. And if that happens and we beat Ohio State, then we're National Champions.

What else do we need to know?

Hey, man, I was just trying to do a public service. People complain about the system but don't seem to know how it works, so you end up with some folks saying that the voters are keeping USC out of the #2 spot when both BCS human polls place USC ahead of Michigan. And there are still people here questioning the AP poll (e.g., Herbstreit/I smell a rat) even though it has nothing to do with who plays in the BCS games.

For the record, I didn't get the "b-school or comm" remark by Dan.

Thanks Brian,

Great post...and it is about USC...and we are in agreement! And you no longer have to worry about the Big East in any of your calculations (what a relief).

Despite the fact that USC has played a harder "overall" schedule (Arkansas, Nebraska, Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame) than Michigan (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Ohio State), which looked very good against Ohio State...on the road, USC and Michigan will have played one common opponent this year...the almight Fighting Irish.

And since Michigan demolished Notre Dame AT Notre Dame 47-21, I think it would be important for USC to really do a number on the Irish on Saturday.

Well, come 2008, Ohio St. will get a stronger schedule - they start a 2-year home and away series with USC!!!
Wonder if they will want to get out of that scheduling and replace us with an Akron, or Ohio U.!

Having Jerry Palm state that SC is in if it wins out, is very reassuring, because I have never known Mr. Palm to be wrong. Of course, it makes sense inasmuch as Michigan has played two more games than SC, so naturally, a computer would be "impressed" with that stat.

Mike in Atlanta, I'm feeling your SEC pain from South Georgia, and I'm sick of hearing it also. Like someone said quit scheduling all of the cupcake out of conference games. Time for the boys from Troy to step it up and play their A game from start to finish so the country can see how football is supposed to be played!!

Fight ON Trojans!!!!

I remember the run up to the 2004 National Championship game. There were four pregame pundits and three game announcers. Six of the seven picked Oklahoma and one went so far as to warn that USC needed to be careful not to get blown out.

We all remember who got blown out and I suspect all of these "experts" now get to vote in the polls.

An Ohio State/Michigan rematch would prove nothing except who was the best team in the BIG-10.

Scott, where's the post with your AP ballot? I can't wait to see Florida ahead of USC on your ridiculous ballot.

The good and possibly bad news is that it will all come down to human polls. It appears at first glance that USC will jump Michigan in 2 of the 5 Michigan favored polls. They are too far behind the Sagarin and Wolfe polls and Billingsley is a toss up. They will pass them in the Massey and Anderson polls with two more wins. That leaves the computers making the two a tie. This of course assumes that SC's key opponents don't all fold (Ark, Nebraska, Cal).

BTW, UF can be the spoiler in all this if they pass SC in the Anderson poll.

I predict it will come to votes. The way it should be.

Stephanie,

It is true that if USC is 2nd in two computer indexes and Michigan is 2nd in two computer indexes, the two teams would be tied in the computer component. However, the positions of Ohio State and Florida also factor in.

For example, right now, the computers stack up this way:

OSU: .250, .250, .250, .250 (1.000)
Mich: .240, .240, .240, .240 (.960)
USC: .230, .230, .230, .230 (.920)
Fla: .220, .220, .220, .210 (.870)
DIFFERENCE: Michigan +.040 over USC

In the scenario you describe, it would be:

OSU: .250, .250, .250, .250 (1.000)
Mich: .240, .240, .230, .230 (.940)
USC: .230, .230, .240, .240 (.940)
Fla: .220, .220, .220, .210 (.870)
DIFFERENCE: None

If USC jumps Ohio State as well as Michigan in one of the computers, then it could look like this:

OSU: .250, .250, .250, .240 (.990)
USC: .240, .240, .240, .250 (.970)
Mich: .230, .230, .230, .230 (.920)
Fla: .220, .220, .220, .210 (.870)
DIFFERENCE: USC +.050 over Michigan

If Florida also jumps Michigan in one computer, which is possible, it could be:

OSU: .250, .250, .250, .240 (.990)
USC: .240, .240, .240, .250 (.970)
Mich: .230, .230, .220, .230 (.910)
Fla: .220, .220, .230, .210 (.880)
DIFFERENCE: USC +.060 over Michigan

To the extent that USC jumps Ohio State in more than one computer, or that Florida jumps Michigan in more than one computer, USC's advantage over Michigan would be even greater.

Keep in mind that if every voter in the Harris and USA Today polls voted Michigan #2 and USC #3, it would only provide Michigan with a .057 advantage (.040 for Harris, .017 for USA Today), not enough to offset USC's .060 in the last scenario described above. In all likelihood, it will be closer than that in the polls, especially since USC is already ahead in both, so USC wouldn't need such a big margin in the computers.

On a related note, if USC wins out, it will provide a double benefit because Michigan played both Notre Dame and UCLA. Hanging a loss on each team will erode Michigan's strength of schedule even though Michigan is done playing.