Bowl Scenarios
If USC defeats UCLA, the Trojans will finish as the Pac-10 champion (or co-champion with Arizona State if the Sun Devils defeat Arizona). In either case, USC will go to the Rose Bowl, as it beat ASU.
If USC loses to UCLA, USC will finish in either a 4-way tie for first place in the Pac-10 (if Arizona defeats Arizona State) with UCLA, Arizona State and either Oregon or Oregon State OR in a 3-way tie for second place (if Arizona State defeats Arizona) with UCLA and either Oregon or Oregon State. In the 4-way tie scenario, UCLA would go to the Rose Bowl as the Pac-10 representative based on the Pac-10 tiebreaker.
In the 3-way tie scenario, Arizona State would go to the Rose Bowl as the outright Pac-10 champion.
In either tie scenario, USC-in order of selection-could be chosen by the Holiday, Sun or Emerald Bowls (or possibly the Las Vegas Bowl, if the Emerald decides to take the Pac-10’s fifth team instead of its fourth).
First, let's make this clear: USC will beat FUCLA by 20+ points, rendering the tie-breaker talk moot.
Nevertheless, I still don't see how UCLA wins the tie-breaker if OSU beats Oregon, and Arizona beats ASU. (Scott does not say why FUCLA wins a four-way tie.)
Assuming that USC, ASU, OSU and FUCLA are in a four-way tie, USC, ASU and FUCLA would be 2-1, and Oregon State would be 0-3, against each other. OSU would be dropped out.
USC, ASU and FUCLA would be 1-1 against each other, thus leading to the next tie-breaker.
The next tie-breaker would then be the individual record against the team(s) occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings (if there is a tie for the highest position, it is the cumulative record against the tied teams).
I read this to mean the top teams based on total record.
Thus, at 9-3, USC and ASU would be the teams occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings. USC's 1-0 record against the conference leaders would be better than FUCLA's 1-1 record, or ASU's 0-1 record. Thus, USC would win the tie-breaker under that four-team scenario. Thus, FUCLA would also need Oregon to beat OSU to go to the Rose Bowl. Where is the flaw in my logic?
Here are the rules for the Pac-10 tiebreaker, pursuant to the conference's website:
a. Two-Team Tie.
The winner of the game between the two teams shall be the representative.
b. Multiple-Team Ties.
(1) When three or more teams are tied in Conference play, if one has defeated all others, it shall be the Rose Bowl representative. If that is not the case, a comparison of the tied teams' records against the other tied teams shall be made and the team having the best record against the other tied teams shall be the Rose Bowl representative. If two or more teams are still tied after this comparison, the appropriate two-team or multiple-team tie-breaking procedures shall be repeated among those teams still under consideration.
(2) If more than two teams are still tied after the process above is completed, each remaining tied team's record against the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings shall be compared, with the procedure continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, each team's collective record against the tied teams as a group shall be used.
If at any point in the process the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure shall be applied.
If more than two teams are still tied after comparing their records all the way through the Conference standings, the team among the tied teams with the highest ranking in the final BCS standings shall be the Rose Bowl representative. If a tie remains, the teams most recently earning Rose Bowl or Bowl Championship Series automatic selection shall be eliminated.
http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/111605aac.html
SW, IF, IF, IF USC beats "FUCLA". And this comes from a guy that has the UKonvicts at number 24. SW, your sanity is hitting at an all time low. Fight On!
SW, IF, IF, IF USC beats "FUCLA". And this comes from a guy that has the UKonvicts at number 24. SW, your sanity is hitting at an all time low. Fight On!
This is how I see it (if you care.)I'm assuming ASU beats Arizona. If not I would guess Illinois or BC makes it.
If Oklahoma wins Big 12 Game
NC: West Virginia vs. Ohio St.
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Georgia
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Missouri
Sugar Bowl: Tenn/LSU vs. Hawaii
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona St.
If Missouri wins Big 12 game:
NC: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Rose: USC vs. Ohio St.
Fiesta: Kansas vs. Arizona St.
Sugar: Tenn/LSU vs. Hawaii
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
I wrote Commissioner Hanson of the Pac-10 concerning the tie-breaker format. He referred me to Jim Muldoon. Mr. Muldoon then replied. This response is legitimate and actually happened today. (Of course, this is academic, because USC is going to smoke UCLA.) Here are the e-mails from first to last:
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[My e-mail to Hanson]
Dear Commissioner Hanson:
Every media outlet is reporting that if UCLA beats USC and Arizona beats ASU in football this weekend, that UCLA will go to the Rose Bowl. I have read the Pac-10's tie-breaker procedure (set forth below). If UCLA and Arizona win, there is a four-way tie for first place: USC, UCLA, ASU and Oregon/Oregon St. winner. I know why UCLA advances if the fourth team is Oregon, but cannot figure out why UCLA advances if the fourth team is Oregon St (i.e., OSU beats Oregon).
Assuming that USC, ASU, OSU and UCLA are in a four-way tie, USC, ASU and UCLA would be 2-1, and Oregon State would be 0-3, against each other. Thus, OSU would be dropped out, leaving USC, UCLA, and ASU.
USC, ASU and UCLA would be 1-1 against each other, thus leading to the next tie-breaker.
The next tie-breaker would then be the individual record against the team(s) occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings (if there is a tie for the highest position, it is the cumulative record against the tied teams). [I read this to mean the top teams based on total record. Is that right? If not, then what does "team(s) occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings" mean?]
Thus, at 9-3, USC and ASU would be the teams occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings. USC's 1-0 record against the conference leaders would be better than UCLA's 1-1 record, or ASU's 0-1 record. Thus, USC would win the tie-breaker under that four-team scenario. UCLA would thus also need Oregon to beat OSU to go to the Rose Bowl, but that is not being reported. Where is the flaw in my logic?
It would be helpful if the Pac-10 would issue a press release and/or post something on the Pac-10 website showing just how UCLA wins the four-team tie-breaker, if any. I would appreciate the courtesy of a reply from you or someone else at the Pac-10 that explains why UCLA wins the four-team tie-breaker if Oregon State beats Oregon. Thanks.
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[Mr. Hanson's Reply E-Mail:]
I am going to ask Jim Muldoon, Associate Commissioner and Football Administrator, to reply to your inquiry, because he has been concentrating on the Pac-10's internal race, while I have been analyzing our place in various BCS scenarios. He has worked through all of the scenarios concerning who can win or tie for the title, and should be able to show you the answer.
Thank you for writing.
Tom Hansen
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[Mr. Muldoon's response:]
[Mr. Muldoon reprints part of my letter to Mr. Hanson:]
[Assuming that USC, ASU, OSU and UCLA are in a four-way tie, USC, ASU and UCLA would be 2-1, and Oregon State would be 0-3, against each other. Thus, OSU would be dropped out, leaving USC, UCLA, and ASU.
USC, ASU and UCLA would be 1-1 against each other, thus leading to the next tie-breaker.]
[Mr. Muldoon then clarifies the tie-breaking procedure:]
"Mr. [uscmike]:
You are good to this point. This next tie-breaker means the teams still remaining in the standings (we have already compared USC, ASU and UCLA against one another, plus OSU). The tie-breaker than compares them to the highest remaining team(s) in the Pac-10 standings, which in this case would be Oregon and Arizona at 5-4.
USC and UCLA are 1-1 against Oregon/Arizona, ASU would be 0-2 and thus eliminated. We go back to head-to-head between UCLA and USC with UCLA getting the berth.
Perhaps adding the word remaining would clarify the language.
Jim Muldoon"
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I was pleasently surprised to get a quick response from the Pac-10 about this issue. It needs to clarify the tie-breaker procedure, however.