Nightmare Scenario
If USC goes to the Rose Bowl, here's what you don't want to happen.
If Michigan State defeats Penn State and Ohio State can win its two remaining games, the Buckeyes and Spartans would be tied for the championship, but Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl based on a head-to-head win.
Won't happen.
Penn St has its final two games at home, it has a Rose Bowl bid on the line, and they are not going to let this slip through their fingers.
Guaranteed.
Negative. The Big 10 has a rule in its tiebreaker bylaws that penalize a team for scheduling a I-AA team. Even if PSU, MSU, and OSU all tie for first, MSU wins the tiebreaker because they did not schedule a I-AA team, where the other two did.
We want Oregon State to win out and go to the Rose Bowl so SC can win the AP National Championship.
Florida beats Alabama and Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
Oklahoma or a one loss Texas plays Florida in the BCS title game and the score is close.
USC plays either Ok or Texas in the Fiesta Bowl and blows them out.
USC wins the AP title.
The biggest hurdle is Oregon State winning out.
The winner of a Florida-Texas/Oklahoma match-up in the BCS title game would be ranked first by the AP, Coaches and Harris Poll, regardless of whether it is a one-point, sloppy, or even controversial win. I don't think USC gets consideration for BCS title game or top ranking in the AP Poll (assuming a sufficient number of teams ranked 1-5 lose)if Oregon State wins the conference. After all, if USC can't finish first in the "weak" Pac-10, why would it deserve to be No. 1 in the country?
The only possible exception to this statement is the one in a billion shot that the all of the teams ahead of USC lose twice in the regular season.
USC needs Missouri to win the Big 12 CG or Florida to win the SEC CG with 2 losses. USC would rise to one of the top 2 spots as the highest ranked Conference Champ.
They need Oreg St to lose in order to claim the outright PAC 10 Title.