Why USC isn't the true leader of the Pac
The Trojans will need continued improvement from their defense, and all the help the Coliseum crowd can provide, to prove themselves the best football team in the Pac-10 tonight.
Up to now, that highly unofficial title belongs to Cal.
So says our ultra-objective friend, a simple calculation of Who Beat Whom and By How Much.
The Pac-10 standings look like this:
USC 6-1 in conference games, 8-1 overall
Cal 6-1, 8-2
Oregon 4-3, 7-3
Oregon State 4-3, 6-4
Washington State 4-4, 6-5
UCLA 3-4, 5-5
Arizona 3-4, 5-5
Arizona State 3-4, 6-4
Washington 2-6, 4-7
Stanford 1-6, 1-9
But Cal has outscored its conference opponents by 112 points, USC by 101. And Cal hasn’t faced weakling Stanford yet, which USC has.
Figure out each team’s margin per game, adjust that by its opponents’ margin per game (as well as home-vs.-road considerations), and you get these rudimentary Pac-10 “power ratings”:
Cal +15 points per game
USC +9
Oregon +6
Oregon State +2
Washington State +1
UCLA +0
Arizona State –2
Arizona –4
Washington –4
Stanford –22
Cal has been 6 points better than USC so far in their Pac-10 games.
Or look at it this way. USC and Cal have played six common opponents. USC did better against Arizona and Oregon. But Cal did better against Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State and Washington. Add it all up, and the two-month verdict looks familiar.
Cal has been 6½ points better than USC against common opponents.
With a 31-game Coliseum win streak, Pete Carroll’s 18-0 November record, and the confidence that comes from thumping Oregon while the Golden Bears were losing to Arizona a week ago, the Trojans have every chance to live up to their 5½-point favorite’s role tonight and win the Pac-10 championship.
But this should be another tough USC-Cal game, the highest remaining hurdle for USC as it seeks a third straight national title-game berth. The Trojans’ defense has to make more big plays than Cal’s DeSean Jackson, Nate Longshore and Marshawn Lynch.
The pick here: Cal 28, USC 27.
Comments
Kev,
So much for your logic.
And your pick.
Posted by: Ron C. | November 21, 2006 02:59 AM
I already sent an email to a so called columnist from the bay area. I decided to be careful and smart and keave his name out. Both of you were too optimistic:
Final score
USC 23
Cal 9
End of the story-it.
Posted by: el capitan | November 21, 2006 08:48 PM