Kevin Modesti's Words & Numbers

Lava Man had to win the $3 million race called the Dubai Duty Free in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday to vindicate his owners' decision to send California's most popular thoroughbred halfway around the globe and put at risk a potentially historic campaign at home.

But after dueling for the lead for most of the race, Lava Man threw in the towel at the top of the long stretch on the Nad al Sheba turf course and finished 16th and last behind winner Admire Moon.

Said jockey Corey Nakatani: "With about 3 1/2 furlongs left to run he said, ‘I’ve had enough,’ and that is just not him. It is disappointing.”

Instead of winning for the first time outside of California, Lava Man ran -- if you call that running -- his out-of-state mark to 0-5.

Worst of all, he caved in against top-class horses, following his pattern on the road, where he has never been better than seventh.

So, actually, on his worst days, Lava Man has said "I've had enough" before.

Meanwhile, in California, the 6-year-old gelding trained by Doug O'Neill has won nine races in a row, including two Santa Anita Handicaps, his second Hollywood Gold Cup and a Pacific Classic.

The arduous trip to the rich race in Dubai could require a several-months recovery and cost Lava Man a shot at a record-tying third straight Hollywood Gold Cup in June.

In the biggest race on the Dubai card, 2006 Horse of the Year Invasor (Fernando Jara riding) pulled away from Premium Tap to win the $6 million Dubai World Cup. Discreet Cat, expected to challenge Invasor, finished last for his first defeat.

O'Neill did win earlier with Spring at Last (Garrett Gomez) in the $1 million Godolphin Mile. But that's little consolation for Lava Man's flop.

Posted by Kevin Modesti at 01:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Below is my top-20 ranking of horses aiming for the May 5 Kentucky Derby after three significant preps on Saturday -- Great Hunter won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, Scat Daddy the Fountain of Youth and King of the Roxy the Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park. I'm one of eight weekly contributors to the Louisville Courier-Journal's Derby rankings. The entire Courier-Journal poll can be found by clicking here.

My top 10 (new comments in italics):
1. Street Sense
2-year-old champ regains No. 1 by default after Nobiz’s loss in Fountain of Youth
2. Ravel
Best of trainer Todd Pletcher's bunch could go in March 17 San Felipe at Santa Anita
3. Scat Daddy
Another Pletcher, he moves way after bouncing back and winning the Fountain
4. Any Given Saturday
Another Pletcher, he's starting the season against soft Tampa Bay competition
5. Stormello
Missed by inches after leading the Fountain, vindicating trainer’s choice to ship
6. Great Hunter
Best of the Doug O’Neill-trained, J. Paul Reddam-owned trio won Saturday’s Lewis
7. Nobiz Like Shobiz
Erratic third in the Fountain of Youth takes the sheen off the recent favorite
8. Circular Quay
More Pletcher: BC runnerup's recent loss in La. (with big excuse) was third in a row
9. Liquidity
O'Neill-trained (like No. 8); led but finished second to Stormello, Ravel in last two
10. Notional
More O'Neill: Risen Star win was seen nationally as Circular Quay's hard-luck loss

My second 10:
10. Summer Doldrums; 11. Hard Spun; 12. Adore the Gold; 13. King of the Roxy; 14. E Z Warrior; 15. Sam P.; 16. Adore the Gold; 17. Horse Greeley; 18. Belgravia; 19. Teuflesberg; 20. Drums of Thunder.

Posted by Kevin Modesti at 04:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Arson Squad had been scratched from today's $1 million Santa Anita Handicap, unconfirmed reports saying the Strub Stakes winner has a foot problem. The change has historical ramifications.

Arson Squad -- leading jockey Garrett Gomez's scheduled mount -- was my second choice in the race, the 9-2 second choice on the original morning line, and the 117-pound second highweight. Lava Man is my pick to win, 4-5 in the program, and assigned 124.

Now the second highweight belongs to Awesome Gem, Ball Four and Molengao, each with 116 pounds.

Here's the historical part: Lava Man becomes the first highweight to give away as many as eight pounds in the Big 'Cap since Gentlemen carried 125 to Don't Blame Rio's 117 in 1998. Silver Charm was given 124 that year but scratched the day before the race with a foot bruise. As you remember if you took the 1-20 odds, Gentlemen ran last in the four-horse field as barnmate Malek (115) won with Alex Solis.

The last highweight to concede more than eight pounds was Nodouble, who carried 130 to Figonero's 121 in 1970. Nodouble was a 6-5 favorite but finished eighth to Quicken Tree (118) and Fernando Alvarez.

Posted by Kevin Modesti at 10:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Horses for Saturday's Santa Anita Handicap are shown in order of preference.
Listed are post position, horse (weight assignment), jockey and morning line.

7 Lava Man (124), Corey Nakatani, 4-5
If he runs as he has in his last eight starts in-state, it's hard to see how he loses
8 Arson Squad (117), Garrett Gomez, 9-2
Strub Stakes winner gets better as the races get longer, and has the leading rider
1 Awesome Gem (116), Tyler Baze, 10-1
San Fernando winner can resume rapid improvement at a price after Strub flop

6 Molengao (116), Victor Espinoza, 6-1
San Antonio winner is likely to be far back early and need a tiring pace up front
4 Ball Four (116), Julien Leparoux, 15-1
Wired Kentucky Cup Classic last fall; sneaking away from Lava Man will be harder
9 McCann’s Mojave (115), Frank Alvarado, 15-1
If horse owned by PR man Mike Willman wins, expect cheering in the press box
3 Boboman (115), Alex Solis, 12-1
Grade I win in Hollywood Turf Cup freed Richard Mandella to try him on dirt
2 El Roblar (114), Richard Migliore, 20-1
Mandella hopes his third race after surgery and longer trip make this "the big day"
5 Spring at Last (115), David Flores, 15-1
A big-time "hidden entry play" for fans of Lava Man trainer Doug O'Neill

Posted by Kevin Modesti at 06:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)