Analysis: The Dodgers’ roster is still bloated.

Tim Wallach is addressing the #Dodgers. First full team workout is in progress.

A photo posted by J.P. Hoornstra (@jphoornstra) on


One question was posed to me several times this week: Are the Dodgers done making moves?

No. Ask Andrew Friedman or Farhan Zaidi or any GM, and he’ll say his work is never finished. There’s always an intriguing minor-league free agent somewhere (see: Chin-Hui Tsao), an injury waiting to happen. Some person or event will inevitably shift a team’s needs. Baseball is a dynamic sport. The only constant is change.

Furthermore, hasn’t the roster changed enough? As DodgersInsider.com recently pointed out, only 15 players on the current 40-man roster appeared in a game for the Dodgers in 2013. That was before Erisbel Arruebarrena was designated for assignment to make room for Brett Anderson (which doesn’t affect the stat I just cited, but still constitutes change).

OK, so the Dodgers have made a lot of moves recently and thrown around a lot of money in the process. But how much money, and where have all those moves left the 2015 club?

Here’s what got me thinking about this. Zaidi has already said that obtaining an eighth inning-type reliever is something the Dodgers will look at, either via trade or free agency. As I wrote yesterday, if the Dodgers have reason to be concerned with their roster, it might be what happens with the ninth inning if Kenley Jansen is hurt or sputtering.

Then I tried to figure out how adding a proven eighth-inning pitcher, someone who would cost more than your typical middle reliever, would impact the Dodgers’ current roster balance and payroll. That’s when this little thought exercise got messy. And complicated. Spreadsheets were needed. God help you if you’re a non-roster invitee trying to make this team out of spring training.

The Dodgers’ payroll is bursting at the seams because of pricey former players and potential 25-man roster guys. Still.

Here’s how it breaks down …

The Dodgers’ 2014 payroll was calculated at $277.7 million for purposes of the luxury tax; the actual amount pocketed by players (including Andruw Jones) was slightly more. In October the club overhauled its front office, and the new executives were expected to slash payroll at some point. It doesn’t look like that will happen in 2015, though that could change with one fairly obvious move. More on that later.

The Dodgers’ 2015 payroll is already pushing past $240 million. Cots puts the number at $243.9 million. That figure includes the money guaranteed to Brian Wilson, Matt Kemp, Dan Haren and Arruebarrena, and the cash acquired from Boston and Philadelphia in past trades.

The $243.9 million doesn’t include what the Dodgers will pay players who are eligible for salary arbitration. Five such players are on the 40-man roster now (A.J. Ellis, Kenley Jansen, Chris Heisey, Juan Nicasio and Justin Turner). Another (Dee Gordon) is not, but the Dodgers are paying his 2015 salary for the Marlins. MLBTradeRumors.com estimates those six will collectively make $21.3 million. For purposes of this exercise, let’s go with that.

Now the payroll is up to $265.2 million. But wait, there’s more. A number of young players who can reasonably expect to see major-league time in 2015 aren’t eligible for salary arbitration and don’t have a guaranteed major-league deal: Scott Van Slyke, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal, Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez, Kiké Hernandez, Paco Rodriguez, Adam Liberatore, Carlos Frias, Chris Withrow, Austin Barnes and Mike Bolsinger. Players with 0-3 years’ service time like them rarely make more than $1 million individually. The general expectation around baseball each year is that a team can expect to pay its 0-3 players a total of $10 million per year. Their actual salaries and service time will push that number up or down, but $10 million is the industry expectation. So we’ll go with that.

Now the payroll is $275.2 million. Obtaining a player who will add to that number and still allow the front office to cut payroll compared to 2014 isn’t impossible. But it’s getting really hard.

Now let’s look at the Dodgers’ 25-man roster candidates.

By my count there are 19 players on the 40-man who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, either because they’re out of options or their contracts don’t allow it. That’s a lot, considering there are only 25 jobs available. The group of 19 includes five relievers (League, Howell, Peralta, Hatcher and Nicasio), five starters (Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Anderson and McCarthy), and nine position players (Crawford, Ethier, Uribe, Turner, Guerrero, Kendrick, Rollins, Gonzalez and Ellis).

The Dodgers could save plenty of money, likely between $10 and $20 million, by limiting their roster only to players with guaranteed major-league contracts. But then they’d be six players short come Opening Day. Yasiel Puig, Kenley Jansen and Yasmani Grandal are locked into important jobs. That brings the roster to 22.

Van Slyke and Heisey are more or less locked in to important jobs. That brings the roster to 24.

Assuming all 24 are healthy, there’s only one spot left. With six pitchers and only one left-hander (Howell) in our hypothetical bullpen, the last spot figures to go to another lefty reliever. Paco Rodriguez and Adam Liberatore can fight for that spot.

Now the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster is full. And we haven’t even made room for Pederson, Baez, Frias or Hernandez.

After all is said and done, it’s still a bloated roster. “Bloated” might be unfair. This might be a question of whether you see the glass as half-empty or half-full. It’s certainly a more flexible roster compared to the past couple seasons. There is no need to send Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley or Josh Beckett to the bullpen. The projected number-six and -seven starters, Joe Wieland and Bolsinger, have minor-league options. There’s a glut of relief pitchers, but Baez, Frias, Liberatore, Rodriguez and Withrow (once he’s healthy) all have options too.

The outfield is also a bit of a logjam, but only if Pederson is ready to be the everyday center fielder. Then there’s Hernandez, a 1.6-WAR player in 42 games last year. He has options, and he can play virtually any position if injury strikes. Come to think of it, is any major-league team better able to withstand a rash of injuries on January 9 than the Dodgers?

Maybe. Maybe not.

Here’s what we know: A non-roster invitee going to spring training with the Dodgers faces an impossibly steep climb. There’s no obvious place on the 25-man roster for a Turner or a Chone Figgins, like there was a year ago (to say nothing for Julio Urias and Corey Seager). It won’t be easy for the Dodgers to reduce their 2014 payroll, which was the highest in baseball history. And for all the talk of making him the everyday center fielder this year, Pederson has not been guaranteed a 25-man roster spot. Not by a longshot.

As for the last two points, both can be reconciled with one simple stroke of the pen (assuming GMs don’t sign off on trades digitally). Trading Carl Crawford and/or Andre Ethier would clear a significant amount of payroll, provided the Dodgers don’t agree to pay the full remainder of their contracts. It would also clear a spot for Pederson.

In the meantime, this appears to be a “problem” the Dodgers are willing to take into spring training.

This entry was posted in JP on the Dodgers, Spring Training and tagged , , , by J.P. Hoornstra. Bookmark the permalink.

About J.P. Hoornstra

J.P. Hoornstra covers the Dodgers, Angels and Major League Baseball for the Orange County Register, Los Angeles Daily News, Long Beach Press-Telegram, Torrance Daily Breeze, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, Pasadena Star-News, San Bernardino Sun, Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, Whittier Daily News and Redlands Daily Facts. Before taking the beat in 2012, J.P. covered the NHL for four years. UCLA gave him a degree once upon a time; when he graduated on schedule, he missed getting Arnold Schwarzenegger's autograph on his diploma by five months.