If only penciling him into the Dodgers’ 2014 lineup were as simple as lifting a pencil.
#dodgers have interest in juan uribe. But so far he seeks a 3-yr deal. Even in thin 3B market, that’s probably a stretch.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) November 18, 2013
It seems that Uribe, whose OPS jumped from .542 to .769 in the final year of his contract, is counting on being rewarded handsomely for his bounceback season, which also saw him finish as the runner-up to Nolan Arenado for the National League Gold Glove award at third base.
The circumstances are similar to 2010, when Uribe signed a three-year, $21 million contract with the Dodgers after posting a .248/.310/.440 slash line for the defending champion San Francisco Giants. (His slash line in 2013: .278/.331/.438.) That year, the top free agent third baseman was Adrian Beltre. The Dodgers determined early on that Beltre would be out of their price range; under Frank McCourt, the 5-year, $80 million deal Beltre ultimately signed with Texas certainly qualified as “expensive.”
So they bit on Uribe. The next-best third baseman in that free agent class was either Miguel Tejada or Bill Hall, depending on your point of view. Neither player finished last season in the majors. Hall (-1.5) and Tejada (0.5) actually have fewer Wins Above Replacement, per baseball-reference.com, from 2011-13 than Uribe (3.7). That statistic is a little misleading, since Uribe had -0.4 WAR from 2011-12, and 4.1 WAR last season. Here’s why:
Those spray charts are courtesy of FanGraphs’ new interactive spray chart tool, which I plan on using way too much from now on. (For all its limits compared to the tools offered for a price by Bloomberg, and to ESPN employees by ESPN, you can lose an entire afternoon playing with FanGraphs’ new toy.)
The chart on the left shows where Uribe hit the ball in 2012. On the right, 2013. The quick takeaway: Uribe re-discovered his power stroke last year, particularly his pull stroke, and probably hit the ball harder too. At least that’s one way to explain Uribe’s uptick in line drives and ground balls that got through the infield.
Optimistically, pairing Uribe with hitting coach Mark McGwire for another season (or three) could lead to similar results. Pessimistically, 2013 was a fluke and Uribe — who turns 35 next July — can be expected to regress to more 2012-like levels at some point during a three-year contract.
In the midst of another thin free agent market, how optimistic are the Dodgers feeling about Uribe internally? We could find out soon.
Some bullet points for a World Toilet Day:
• The Dodgers are one of six teams that have called Bronson Arroyo‘s agent, according to the pitcher himself. But it’s early. “Nobody’s really put a dollar bill in front of me,” Arroyo told MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM.
• Add in a couple exhibition games against the Australian National team to the Dodgers’ (and Diamondbacks’) Sydney schedule.
• Chris Jackson of Examiner.com offers a quick recap of the Dodgers’ minor-league signings.
• The Dodgers reportedly signed Brendan Harris to a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training.
• Now is a good time to take in the one-of-a-kind Triple-A ballpark in Nashville, before it’s potentially replaced.
• His first name rhymes with “Yasiel” and he’s a Cuban defector: BaseballAmerica.com has more about a pitcher trying to latch on in MLB.
• NPB reportedly wants to keep the existing posting system in place when negotiations with MLB re-open. But there’s a hitch:
Primary sticking point in MLB-NPB talks remains amount of money NPB club receives from MLB club in posting process, sources say.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 19, 2013
• I love the guitar work of Duane Allman as much as the next guy, but “Eat a Peach” is becoming my favorite Allman Brothers album the more I listen to it. Here’s Melissa: