Star-News Pick’em: San Marino-San Dimas; Muir-WesCo highlight Elite Eight games

REMATCH: San Marino-San Dimas redo highlights Elite Eight round this week.
Staff photo by Keith Birmingham.


Keith Lair and I will go head-to-head in the Star-News Pick’em. Here is this week’s predictions along with how we did last week.

Last Week: Ramirez (7-2); Lair (7-2)
Season: Ramirez (133-54); Lair (136-51)

Last week: Keith and I were even, both missing on La Salle’s loss to Centennial/Compton and Flintridge Prep beating Ribet Academy.

This week: We’re down the Elite Eight, or in the area the Fantastic Five. The big matchups are San Marino at San Dimas in the Mid-Valley Division and Muir at West Covina at the Southeast. I’m going with a split on the West Valley teams, taking Muir over surging West Covina, and San Dimas in a close one over the Titans. Also like Monrovia over South El MOnte, Rio Hondo over Desert and Mission Prep over Flintridge Prep.

Here’s this week’s schedule and predictions:
MID-VALLEY DIVISION
South El Monte at Monrovia — Ramirez (Monrovia); Lair (Monrovia)
San Marino at San Dimas — Ramirez (San Dimas); Lair (San Dimas)
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
Muir at West Covina — Ramirez (Muir); Lair (Muir)
NORTHEAST DIVISION
Rio Hondo at Desert — Ramirez (RHP); Lair (RHP)
Mission Prep vs. Flintridge Prep, site TBA — Ramirez — (MP); Lair (MP)
All games are scheduled for 7:30 p.m.

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  • sm

    San Marino is going to beat san dimas. bad prediction..

    • New York

      This is a tough match-up to predict. Has San Dimas played against a team as physical and well prepared as this year’s San Marino team? How will San Marino’s defense perform against a well-oiled Wing-T system? Good Wing-T teams have a big advantage against opposing defenses in the playoffs, because those defenses have play 11 weeks of football against very different offenses. The defensive lines are accustom to charging upfield, a technique that opens the d-line up to the trap blocks of the Wing-T. San Marino’s d-tackles need to knock the SD pulling linemen off track.

      Both teams have strong coaches and systems.

      • GrimReaper

        The only common opponents I saw were Nogales and Monrovia of the Valle Vista leagues

        SM 63 Nogales 0

        SD 54 Nogales 14

        SM 16 Monrovia 21

        SD 23 Monrovia 35

        I freely admit the following is a fools errand but…

        Based on the margins of win or loss and comparison of points given up defense (defense wins championships) one would argue for an SM win.

        looking at the even more questionable Cal Preps rating scheme.

        SD played a team, Bonita, that has a similar CalPreps rating as SM at 18,8 as opposed to SM 20.1 SD squeaked by

        SD 37 Bonita 36

        So if Calpreps is right in its ratings scheme, maybe SM would have a small margin,

        So far– all SM– more or less.

        But now the other side

        CalPreps predicts a one touchdown margin of victory

        SD 35- SM 28

        Note: It would seem CalPreps is looking at Bonita a lot and throwing some extra defense to them for the prediction. But the comparison of points given up to mutual opponents seems to indicate that the final score will be less. For those that want to do the work, inspection of the amount of penalties and penalty yds might be instructive, where a comparison of MoTown games are concerned. As no matter how hard it hurts the Green and White, they have a long running problem with ill timed penalties, and or delays of game that hurt scoring drives.

        Now the other bad SM news.

        SM played two teams with 7 plus CalPreps ratings Eagle Rock and SEM.

        SM 30 – ER 14

        SM 31 – SEM 21

        Whereas SD played Northview a 7 calpreps rated team

        SD 24- NV 0

        That might argue in behalf of San Dimas a little, especially as Northview played hard against Sierra Canyon in a first round exit, Note Eagle Rock and SEM still live to play. So are they underrated by Cal Preps?

        All these gyrations only show that most likely the game will be an even match, decided by other factors such as turnovers, injuries (hopefully not) and or penalties. Both teams from what I have seen are running oriented ball control offenses, so an early lead will be big. And the defense’s ability to stop the other team key. Finally the pass will become important as the defenses start to over commit to the run and open up a long wide open pass or two. The team that hits those selected moment passes, will be the winner — if the turnovers are more or less equal.

        I doubt you will see either team give up stupid penalties of commission or omission based on their discipline and coaching.

  • Football Guy

    The best game in the area will be the San Marino- San Dimas game. Both teams are very good teams and are very well coached. I will take San Marino is a real close game.

  • Greenie

    San Marino wins by 3.

    Here is why…. San Marino is discipline on D. San Marino has a few more passing plays than San Dimas, and a better QB. After both teams stop each others running game, who is going to be able to adjust and throw the ball to keep the other team off balance. San Dimas can only throw via trick plays. It’s very dangerous to have RB’s throwing balls, who normally don’t throw… or guys with Gloves in big shoulder pads trying to throw on the run. SM can run, but when they do throw, they can keep it in the QB’s hands. SD has had passing turnovers in almost all their playoff losses. Wafford will make a big throw off of a playaction late to set up a SM Field goal for the win.

    • New York

      I could almost see this game getting ugly in San Marino’s favor.

      • Greenie

        I was at last years game bc it was played on a Thursday.. It was close. San Dimas RB Joilivet went wild..but man it was close…SM has the big Seniors now. I got SM

      • GrimReaper

        re your other question has SM faced another trapping and misdirection running team.

        One must point out TC in that respect. TC a run oriented team attempts to use a lot of misdirections and trap plays to make their simple Hitchcock style offense go. As you stated the D line tackles are very important to stopping that style of attack.

        The old school approach to TC was to stuff the O tackles before they could pull and disrupt pulling guards. take away the run to the tackle hole where the running back either goes in or bumps out, picking his hole. Thus to force the run into the middle of the line for the linebackers.

        I am not suggesting TC is close to the class of SD, but SM stuffed the TC line in a way that was far different than the SPHS approach to TC.where linemen were up field on most plays engaging the SP linebackers and even corners or safeties.

        So the answer is yes SM has faced a similar scheme (to some extent) as SD and was able to stuff that approach, all be it TC that can be discounted in comparison to SD just on record alone.

        • SaintsR4real

          Hellllarious!!!!

        • New York

          I think SD’s offense is MUCH faster and better executed than TC’s.

  • http://www.facebook.com/philip.b.blackwell Phil Blackwell

    I love the support for a fellow rhl team. You see us monrovia fans are not so caught up in our own team, that we cant see another team Like SM as they face a very even opponent like SD. However, I agree with the census and say SM beats San Dimas at Their house! However if San Marino ends up beating SD by double digits, It wont shock me one bit, just because SM’s ability to throw the ball.

    • Greenie

      Yeah Monrovia fans are not so bad..we are big homers, but we watch and keep up with everyone

  • Titansportsfan

    In a game like this special teams may be key as well . I don’t know how good SD is in that element of the game. I can say confidently that we probably have an edge since wofford is one of the better kicker/punters in the area …. The ability to pin a team deep will be huge in this game

    • Greenie

      Wafford is a great player. He is going to give SD problems. Wood might be able to get a good return. Man I wish I could watch that one. Some please post the game film on youtube….or hudl.com

  • New York

    San Marino’s coaches should watch the schemes that SD utilized in the 2009 championship game against our running QB oriented offense. In some respects, San Marino has a run oriented QB. I’d anticipated SD’s defensive tackles tilting inward to try to shut off the inside runs.