Even Las Vegas isn’t looking kindly on its hometown team.
UNLV opened this week as a 28-point underdog to No. 13 UCLA, and as of Saturday morning, the spread has grown to 30.5 points. The Rebels hired former Bishop Gorman coach Tony Sanchez this offseason, turning to the prep ranks in an effort to turn around their years of underachieving performance. And as the bookies know, this is a rebuild that will take quite some time.
Here’s what to watch as the Bruins visit a team that has recorded only one winning season since 2000.
When UCLA has the ball
Josh Rosen stepped into the Rose Bowl for the first time last weekend. Yes, that was a true freshman out there last Saturday, throwing for 351 yards and three touchdowns and looking more like an all-conference quarterback than a teenager fresh out of high school.
UCLA clearly made the right call in picking Rosen over redshirt junior Jerry Neuheisel (318 career yards). Now, the question is this: Can Rosen sustain this level of play for the whole season?
His next test comes at UNLV, which doesn’t strike fear in the hearts of anyone familiar with the college football landscape. This is a team that has struggled for years, and given all the talent and experience surrounding Rosen in UCLA’s offense, it shouldn’t be a close game.
But while Sam Boyd Stadium is known more for its outdated amenities than its hostile crowds, the trip should nevertheless provide a measuring stick for Rosen’s progression. Can the five-star recruit stay focused against a four-touchdown underdog? Will his arm now keep defenses from stacking against the run?
Whereas the Virginia defense was intent on keeping Pac-12 rushing champion Paul Perkins bottled up, UNLV will likely have Rosen weighing more heavily on its mind. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer liked blitz-heavy packages at his old stops, so the Rebels could delve into that part of the playbook more after notching three sacks in their season opener at Northern Illinois.
Edge: UCLA
When UNLV has the ball
UNLV’s offense topped 400 yards five times last season, and totaled 493 in its season-opening loss to Northern Illinois. However, this is a team that often sacrifices efficiency in favor of volume.
In 2014, the Rebels averaged 5.67 yards per play, good for 68th across FBS football. It returns a quarterback in Blake Decker who passed for 2,886 yards, but threw 18 picks and only completed 57.6 percent of his passes. Of the quarterbacks who played in at least 75 percent of their team’s games, 50 of them completed at least 60 percent.
But he is who UNLV has at the moment, so they’ll make do. This is a spread offense that Barney Cotton will introduce some pro-style elements to, but the main drawback isn’t schematic. The Rebels simply don’t have too many weapons on the roster.
Devonte Boyd was a Freshman All-American and the Mountain West’s Freshman of the Year last fall, and he’s a dangerous threat. On 65 catches, he totaled 980 yards and four touchdowns. Only seven receivers in the country caught at least 60 passes and averaged more yards per reception.
Elsewhere on the field, the picture is more grim. UNLV’s lead back is Keith Whitely, a junior who has only scored two career touchdowns. He rushed for 80 yards at least three times last season, but only managed 3.24 per carry against Northern Illinois, a team that gave up an average of 4.22 yards to opponents last season.
The offensive line isn’t encouraging either. UNLV lost three starters who combined for 119 starts.
Edge: UCLA
On special teams
At 6-foot-1, 225 pounds, UNLV’s Nicolai Bornand is one of the bigger placekickers around. The former linebacker was named Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Week twice last season, and hit all three of his field goal attempts in the Rebels’ season opener, including one from 51 yards.
Punter Logan Yunker can boot it too. The senior sailed two punts for 61 yards last season, and one for 73 yards in 2013. He placed 30 of his 81 punts inside the 20-yard line last fall.
Randall Goforth had shown promise as a returner before Ishmael Adams erupted on special teams in late 2013. With Adams suspended indefinitely following his arrest on suspicion of robbery, the safety returned two punts for 28 yards against Virginia. UNLV’s coverage unit isn’t bad, but the Rebels did punt 85 times last season — less than only three other teams in the country.
Edge: Even
Prediction: UCLA 42, UNLV 20. The Bruins are more than four-touchdown favorite, but this isn’t a coaching staff that likes to run up the score. If UCLA pulls away to a commanding lead, expect liberal substitution all over the field.